R23 preview: No margin for error with finals on the line

FORM is proving to be very much temporary for almost every side chasing a top-four spot as the race for a double chance goes down to the wire with only two rounds remaining.

Sydney can all but lock in top spot with a win over a stuttering Essendon on Friday night, while Greater Western Sydney now boasts the competition’s longest winning streak ahead of its clash with Fremantle the following day.

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A second Grand Final rematch between Collingwood and Brisbane has taken an unexpected turn with the reigning premier left clinging to little more than mathematical hopes of snatching a finals place.

Here is who and what to look out for across round 23, as well as a tip for each match.

17:45

Essendon v Sydney, Marvel Stadium
Friday, August 16, 7.40pm AEST

Last time: Sydney 19.17 (131) d Essendon 15.11 (101), R2 2024

What it means

Essendon (11-9-1) missed an opportunity to climb back into the top eight when wayward kicking late in the game allowed Gold Coast to snatch a rare win on the road. The Bombers have now been on the losing side the past three times a goal after the siren has decided a result, but more immediately have their finals hopes hanging by a thread after seven defeats in their past 10 matches.

Sydney (15-6) snapped a three-match losing streak when storming home with the last five goals of the game to snatch a thriller against Collingwood but still showed worrying signs before its fightback. The victory has at least allowed the Swans to open up a buffer on the chasing pack and means a win over the Bombers should ensure a top-two finish and pair of home finals.

Game shapers

Zach Merrett was the hero just two weeks ago when his burst from a centre bounce set up the last-gasp match-winning behind against the Dockers, but could not quite lead his side over the line against the Suns. The Bombers skipper still had 32 disposals, and is averaging 28.3 for the season, and is sure to relish the opportunity to take on the Swans’ stellar midfield.

Errol Gulden had a rare off night against the Magpies with 14 disposals his lowest haul since 2022 but still found a way to make a decisive contribution with what proved to be the match-winning goal in the dying stages. The 22-year-old has continued to find plenty of the ball even as the Swans dropped away in recent weeks, but will be out to bounce back to his usual heights.

Early tip: Sydney by 11 points

02:08

Gold Coast v Melbourne, People First Stadium
Saturday, August 17, 1.45pm AEST

Last time: Melbourne 13.12 (90) d Gold Coast 13.7 (85), R8 2023

What it means

Gold Coast (10-11) finally snapped its horror streak on the road with a rousing, after-the-siren triumph over Essendon and now returns to its home fortress with a club first in its sights. The Suns have only lost once as hosts this year, against their nearest rivals in the Lions, and another home victory over the Demons will put them on the brink of finishing with a positive win-loss record for the first time.

Melbourne (10-11) has lost four in a row as its finals hopes have faded away while rumours of off-field drama continue to swirl. The Demons can still finish their season a high against a Suns outfit that they have beaten in their past 11 meetings starting in 2015 and with a clash against old foes the Magpies still to come.

Game shapers

Mac Andrew had been building nicely across three seasons as a defender able to intercept opponent’s attacks and turn them into a weapon going the other way. But the 20-year-old has flown even higher since being thrown forward with seven goals in his past two matches including an after-the-siren match-winner against the Bombers last week.

Max Gawn seemed to be leading the Demons towards a fourth consecutive finals appearance until their season unravelled as form and fitness issues struck. The Dees’ captain has not been immune to those issues as he has been restricted in recent weeks, but has shown in the past that lifts whenever his club is staring down on- and off-field attacks.

Early tip: Gold Coast by seven points

02:35

Greater Western Sydney v Fremantle, Engie Stadium
Saturday, August 17, 1.45pm AEST

Last time: GWS Giants 16.10 (106) d Fremantle 5.6 (36), R14 2023

What it means

GWS (14-7) is arguably the hottest side in the competition after overrunning Brisbane but must remain wary of joining the other top-four contenders that have given up pole position in recent weeks. The Giants have won six in a row to close in on a double chance as well as a pair of finals, and are nearing full strength as reinforcements return from injury in time for the run home.

Fremantle (12-8-1) had a double chance within its grasp only two weeks ago but is now at risk of missing the finals completely after a pair of narrow but costly defeats. The Dockers need at least one more victory to be confident of a top-eight finish but have to treat their remaining matches as virtual elimination finals as they take on the in-form Giants and Power.

Game shapers

Finn Callaghan has become a consistent contributor in his third season but showed the high-end impact he can have when among the Giants to lift as they overpowered the Lions last week. The 21-year-old is averaging a career-high 22.8 disposals this year and now was looms as critical to the Giants’ likely finals campaign with added polish when the ball is in his hands.

Luke Jackson has mostly lived up to his billing as a high-priced recruit since moving to the Dockers but now has an opportunity to make a significant repayment with his side’s finals hopes on the line. The 22-year-old remains a threat in the forward half with 19 goals this season but arguably has the greatest impact when helping the Dockers double down on their strength at stoppages.

Early tip: GWS by 14 points

02:36

Collingwood v Brisbane, MCG
Saturday, August 17, 4.35pm AEST

Last time: Collingwood 14.8 (92) d Brisbane 10.12 (72), R3 2024

What it means

Collingwood (10-9-2) had breathed new life into its faltering title defence with a pair of victories including when hanging on in a nailbiter to Carlton but were then overrun by Sydney in similar circumstances. The Magpies might have beaten the Lions in a Grand Final the last time the sides met at this venue but with two rounds remaining their title defence is barely even hanging by a thread.

Brisbane (13-7-1) was within reach of top spot and a pair of home finals off the back of nine wins in a row that looked set to become 10 before it stopped to a standstill against GWS last week. The defeat was enough to knock the Lions from second down to fifth spot and they now need two wins and for other results to go their way to be sure of a double chance.

Game shapers

Darcy Cameron is enjoying arguably a career-best season even as the Magpies title defence barely got going before all but falling apart. The ruck has built up career-highs for average disposals (15.8), clearances (3.7) and hitouts (29.9) this season but now needs to step up again if the Pies are to match the Lions’ deep and damaging midfield.

Joe Daniher continues to entertain with unpredictable moments lighting up the Lions’ forward half even while he builds a steady season that has been a key to their resurgence. The 30-year-old has booted multiple majors in all but one of the Lions’ past 12 matches, with only two defeats in that stretch, and now looks set to help stretch the Magpies’ undermanned defence.

Early tip: Brisbane by four points

02:03

Port Adelaide v Adelaide, Adelaide Oval
Saturday, August 17, 7.00pm ACST

Last time: Adelaide 12.6 (78) d Port Adelaide 5.18 (48), R8 2024

What it means

Port Adelaide (14-7) has surged up to second spot with four wins in a row that have also made it six victories in their past seven matches. The Power are showing that they can perform in different scenarios, whether thumping the ladder leaders or grinding away against the Demons last week, and can now expect a finals-like atmosphere in the Showdown that has been their undoing of late.

Adelaide (8-12-1) might be set to miss the finals again but they have at least claimed local bragging rights with victory in the past three Showdowns by an average of 36 points. The Crows are building form at the tail-end of the season with four wins from their past seven matches, and will head into the off-season with a spring in their step if they can now upset their arch-rivals’ top-four hopes.

Game shapers

Travis Boak has already played in 31 Showdowns but might expect to play in at least a few more as the former Power skipper continues to turn back the clock with pivotal performances. The 36-year-old had 29 disposals as the Power held off a determined Demons challenge and Boak reminded us that as much as anyone he has a game style suited to the intensity of finals.

Izak Rankine might have been below his best against the Bulldogs in his first match since being suspended for four weeks but showed enough to suggest he is set to repay the Crows in the remaining rounds. The 24-year-old loves the big stage and looms as a key weapon for the Crows after booting a total of seven goals in the two Showdowns he has played.

Early tip: Port Adelaide by 22 points

01:55

St Kilda v Geelong, Marvel Stadium
Saturday, August 17, 7.30pm AEST

Last time: Geelong 10.16 (76) d 9.14 (68), R1 2024

What it means

St Kilda (9-12) is on track to finish a rollercoaster season on something of a high after winning four of its past six matches while results swing wildly between resounding victories and heavy defeats. While the Saints are already out of finals contention they can make a statement for next season by shaking up a horror stretch against the Cats that has only led to three wins in the past 17 meetings.

Geelong (14-7) has turned its fortunes around after a mid-season slump with six victories in its past seven matches to now have a double chance back in its own hands. The Cats might be heading for unfamiliar surrounds with this their first visit to the venue this season but can like their hopes of a top-four finish with the Saints and Eagles remaining on their run home.

Game shapers

Jack Sinclair has at times paid the price for his versatility to play in the midfield or defence but it is little coincidence that the Saints’ performances have improved since he has returned to the back half. The 29-year-old remains among the Saints’ better kicks with his penetration and precision setting off attacking forays for a side that can at times struggle to score.

Max Holmes was almost playing a lone hand in the Cats’ midfield as their form fell away but has taken on arguably an even more critical role since the likes of Patrick Dangerfield have bolstered the onball brigade. The 21-year-old brings line-breaking speed to put fear in the opposition but it is his ability to link defence to attack that is now a key weapon for the Cats.

Early tip: Geelong by 26 points

02:00

Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne, Marvel Stadium
Sunday, August 18, 1.10pm AEST

Last time: Western Bulldogs 11.11 (77) d North Melbourne 9.6 (60), R16 2024

What it means

Western Bulldogs (12-9) had been surging towards the top-four spots until stumbling against Adelaide in a potentially costly defeat last week. The Bulldogs are now not even assured of playing finals and will hope to continue their hot streak against a Kangaroos outfit that it has beaten in their past six meetings by an average of 52 points, especially with the in-form rivals the Giants to come.

North Melbourne (3-18) pushed Western Bulldogs to within three goals when the sides met just seven weeks ago as it started to turn its form around. The Kangaroos have continued to build nicely in most matches since then although they still have work to do in the close ones after giving up a 13-point lead over the Eagles in the dying stages last week.

Game shapers

Sam Darcy has enjoyed an outstanding third season that he started with only seven matches under his belt and now has 28 goals in 18 games. The 21-year-old had a rare case of the yips as the Bulldogs fell away against the Crows with five behinds before he found a first and only goal, but can be backed to bounce back especially against the Roos’ undersized defence.

Bailey Scott can still fly under the radar even while finishing on the podium in the Roos’ past two club champion awards as a consistent contributor who regularly connects defence to attack. The hard-running father-son recruit is now set to play his 100th match mostly spent on a wing or at half-back, and is showing he has the experience and nous to help lead the Kangaroos’ return to form.

Early tip: Western Bulldogs by nine points