Peter Ryan, AFL Record Writer: St Kilda and Essendon are at different stages in their evolution. Ross Lyon says it's the end of an era whereas James Hird says it's the start of a journey. What does their response need to be to after being eliminated in week one of the finals? How do we assess their seasons?
Callum Twomey, AFL Record Writer: James Hird had it right when he said the Bombers need another big pre-season to get fitter, stronger and faster - all areas in which his team was smashed against Carlton. This time last year, Hird said he'd give every player on the list a chance. He's done that now, and a few papers were potentially stamped on Sunday. The season should be viewed as a step forward. Now the challenge for the Bombers is taking the next step forward in 2012.
Michael Lovett, AFL Record Writer: The Saints might need to trade and inject some youth into their side. Ross Lyon has worked with pretty much the same group for the past 4-5 years and it's obvious they are now short of the benchmark Collingwood and Geelong has set. With a few retirements, some places will open up. The Bombers just need to continue their development. They lack a gun midfielder and they will have to make a call on one of their three ruckmen—(Patrick) Ryder, (David) Hille and (Tom) Bellchambers.
Nick Bowen, AFL Record Writer: We've already seen the Saints are going to strip their list back. Michael Gardiner's retirement was legitimate but Steven Baker, Andrew McQualter and Robert Eddy were given their marching orders - Baker and Eddy made that clear on Twitter yesterday. Whether it was handled well or not I'm not sure, but it's the right way to go. The Saints have to inject some youth into their list badly. Expect more delistings before the draft. What will be interesting is how aggressive they're prepared to be. Do they bite the bullet and offer someone like Brendon Goddard, Leigh Montagna or Nick Dal Santo to GWS in exchange for one of the best 17-year-olds in the land? Not sure. But it would certainly be a bold move. As for the Bombers, I think they're on the right track. As much as they would have hated 'rolling over' against Carlton, they can put it down as a learning experience. The natural development of their youngsters will ensure they're a better team in 2012.
Twomey: Bellchambers re-signed for another two years earlier this season, and Hille has previously admitted that at some stage he may have to step aside to give Bellchambers his chance.
Ryan: Essendon have been like a promising young player this season. Brilliant and awful on occasions but always on the upward trend. The year was always going to be a settling year with a finals appearance a bonus. They managed that and seemed to play with spirit and as a cohesive unit. Injuries hurt them more than many other clubs. St Kilda needs to regenerate obviously. How they do that is an open question but if the culture is strong and OK then they need to change perceptions in that area. They have talent and are well coached but trading is essential to inject some fresh blood into the group.
Howard Kotton, AFL Record Writer: St Kilda needs to rebuild, no doubt. Maybe Riewoldt needs to be relieved of the captaincy. He is carrying too big a burden and he needs to concentrate on his game. Maybe he should be moved to centre half-back. They also need some more pace in the midfield. As far as the Bombers, they did well to make it and it is a stepping stone to the future. A few players are probably at the end, but they have shown there is enough young talent there to be excited about in the next few years. They need more outside run to support (Jobe) Watson and (Heath) Hocking and their young defence is developing well under the tutelage of (Dustin) Fletcher. (Stewart) Crameri was a big loss at the end, and the return of (Jason) Winderlich and (Courtney) Dempsey will provide much-needed run and carry.
Geoff Slattery, Managing Editor AFL Media: It seems the path to the premiership has been set by Collingwood and Hawthorn — and now, maybe Carlton. Collingwood was 15th in 2005, and premiers in 2010. Hawthorn was 14th in 2005, and premiers in 2008, a rapid rise. Each club worked into finals contention before winning the GF. Carlton is following a similar path: 16 in 2006, then 15, 11, 7, 8, and now at least top six. Essendon may be a few years away, and St Kilda may well have missed the boat. I would have thought Richmond and North Melbourne may now be ahead of the Saints.
Ryan: Richmond and North are ahead of the Saints but Collingwood, Geelong and Sydney have shown that if you can inject some youth and add them to a talented senior core you can bounce back quickly. Leadership is what has made these three clubs contenders and that is the challenge for the Saints, regardless of who is captain.
Twomey: On the Saints, it's time to make Brendon Goddard captain. Will relieve some pressure on Nick Riewoldt and give Goddard the responsibility I believe he would enjoy.
Lovett: What about Ross Lyon? Does he stay and try to re-generate this group or take the Melbourne job and start afresh? I think he should take the Demons job.
Slattery: Lyon should stay with the Saints, and they should stay with him. He has been a tremendous influence on that club. In many ways his position is similar to that of Mark Thompson in Geelong — remember that off-season of deep analysis of his job. Once he was reappointed, the club never looked back. It's time footy clubs stuck fat with good people, and gave them the capacity to form long-term processes, and implement those processes. The nonsense about Brett Ratten needing to win a final to confirm his position (and Jeff Kennett's statement that Al Clarkson's team needed to finish top four) is short-sighted strategy. In fact, it's not strategy at all: it's the one-eyed analysis that comes from the outer, and the talkback set.
Bowen: I agree, Michael. I know five years at one club is not necessarily that long a reign, but by normal employment standards it's a reasonable stint. Most people wouldn't last that long in a job in the corporate world, so should we just assume Lyon continues because he's done a good job? Perhaps he's got to ask himself the same question Mark Thompson asked himself last season - have I got anything more to give this group? If not, he and St Kilda will benefit from a change.
Ryan: In relation to Ross Lyon, a famous European coach Bela Guttman used to live by the philosophy that three years of hard training from him was all they could endure. Not sure it's true but what it does point to is that every coach needs to regenerate and reinvent because the discipline the Saints needed to lift themselves to where they did was unprecedented. That is the next challenge for Lyon and I reckon he should do it at the Saints too. Imagine the lessons he has learned taking the team one bounce from a premiership and imagine losing that experience to another club. Open up, free up and take a punt because he has a premiership in him there if he can surround himself with the right people.
Bowen: Just while we're on the Saints, is Nick Riewoldt close to the end? I know he doesn't turn 29 until next month, but he plays the most physically exacting position on the ground. Of the other champions centre half-forwards of recent times, Dermott Brereton was 'shot' by 26 and Wayne Carey was gone by 30.
Slattery: You are too early with your farewell to Riewoldt. He has been patched up so many times over the last two seasons, he must need a crane to get him out of bed in the morning. I reckon with some post-season surgery, a big rest — physically and mentally — he'll be back better than ever in 2012. It may be that the coaching team finds a new, less taxing role in his final years.
Bowen: I hope you're right about Riewoldt, GS. But having watched Carey hobble through his final years I have my doubts. Maybe the Saints have to look at regularly resting him throughout the year. I think this is an area Geelong has taken to a new level this year - they've even restructured their best and fairest voting formula so rested players are not disadvantaged.
Slattery: Nick, I take your point about Dermott and the Duck, but Gary Ablett's battered body — approaching 34 years of age — kicked 122 goals in 1995. Freaks do things that others can't. A rest and Riewoldt will star again.
No Longer Blue Blues
Ryan: Carlton has turned things upside down to gain success with Henderson and Yarran back and Thornton and Walker forward. How do you assess Brett Ratten's coaching performance in reshaping Carlton?
Lovett: Ratten has done a great job under enormous pressure. Four years ago when Ratten took over from Denis Pagan during the season they finished second last having won the wooden spoon in 2005 and 2006. Now they are a genuine top-four side—yes, they got some advantages via the draft and having Chris Judd walking into your club helps. But as Geoff said, teams like Collingwood and Hawthorn have followed the premiership path and Carlton is heading in the same direction.
Slattery: In all things to do with coaching, we now need to consider not just the man with the headset, but all those surrounding him — including the no name men in the Footy Ops department. I would have thought that David Buttifant has had as much to do with Collingwood's revival as has Mick Malthouse. Carlton, and all clubs that matter, are now coached by a coaching executive. How the coach embraces that model is so important to the outcome on the field. Ratten has a top mob behind him, an engaging and thoughtful personality, and the strength of character to know when to listen to advice, and when to follow his instincts. He also has the total support of the president, and the fans. Not to be underestimated, those latter two power bases.
Kotton: I believe he has done an excellent job. He is growing with the team and improving with every season. He has got better people around him including Alan Richardson and Gavin Brown and the Blues need to continue to support him with the right people in all areas of the football department. He has been criticised for his slow reactions on match-day, but again he is improving with the team and his pre-match planning, like his mentor David Parkin, is meticulous. I just hope all the naysayers in the media and from within the Carlton family will now shut up and allow him to do his job. He has achieved his 2011 aim of winning a final and will get the contract extension he deserves.
Ryan: I could hear Gavin Brown's experiences when Ratten said yesterday that the playing group did not shy away from losing finals but remembered the pain. Need good teams on and off the field. They have turned Henderson and Yarran into defenders, Thornton and Walker into forwards, Mitch Robinson into a little bit of everything and found a couple of bonuses in Laidler and Duigan.
Get it and Kick It Long
Ryan: Geelong dominated centre clearances on Friday night and went direct and long forward. Why was Hawthorn unable to combat them in the middle?
Slattery: I'd love to be a fly on the wall in the Hawthorn footy department this week. The poor blokes must be spent: they've spent the whole year working out how to plug holes, and now the biggest hole of all must be filled. The loss of 'Frankie' this week, and the poor performance of Schoenmakers must have them spinning with strategic plans to get the club into the preliminary final. It has been so all through the year — first Gilham, then Stratton, forcing new processes in the back end; then Roughead, and now Franklin. I'm tipping Lisle will take Schoenmakers spot, and Rioli will go to full-forward. Trouble with that simple thought is that it spins the rest of the team on its head as well — might require Hodge to go to the back end, a la 2008. One positive — the way Carlton despatched with Essendon on Sunday shows the vast gap between the top five and the rest.
Lovett: Not a great time to be playing the Swans though Geoff. Hardened, professional outfit who know what to do this time of the year. How well is the skipper going? Plays his 300th game this week and could get to 400.
Slattery: Michael, Michael, Michael — every year we get ahead of ourselves after the first week, concentrating on the winners against lowly opposition (lowly based on season win/loss records), and forgetting the performances that took the top four to their double chances. I think three teams have come from the bottom four to the preliminary final in the modern era. I remember well when Hawthorn beat Adelaide in the 2007 Elimination final ('Frankie' kicked seven), and faced North in the qualifying final — off a 106 point thrashing. North dominated from the get-go, and won by five goals. Happens all the time: seedings mean plenty in footy, as they do in all elite comps.
Ryan: Yep, Hawks and Eagles will win. It's like the Dalgety Stakes winner going into the Melbourne Cup as favourite and then finishing midfield. You step up a class each week in finals.
Ryan: The Hawk defenders were undersized so they had no hope when the ball was coming out the centre as it was. It was like trying to catch water at the bottom of the waterfall. The only advantage the Hawks will have this week is their unpredictability. Chapman, Selwood, Ling, Bartel put their heads over the footy and did not get distracted by anything unsociable.
Lovett: Can't underestimate the job Cameron Ling did on Sam Mitchell. Just sat on him all night and denied him the footy. Brad Ottens' tap work, particularly in the second term, was crucial and Paul Chapman seems to be on a personal mission every time he has played against the Hawks since that fateful day in 2008.
Kotton: One reason: Brad Ottens. He looms as the pivotal player in the finals series. Chapman and Allen Christensen were able to get effective clearances and put the Hawks' defence under immense pressure. The loss of Stratton and Gilham was always going to hurt eventually and the Cats were able to expose Schoenmakers and, to a lesser extent, Murphy.
Bowen: Pete, I think some forget the Cats are still an incredible team. They've proved time and time again since the 2008 Grand Final that they've got the Hawks' number. And their mifield is a massive part of that. Paul Chapman was enormous in the second quarter when the Cats got themselves back into the game. His clearance work was imposing. Add Joel Selwood, Jimmy Bartel and James Kelly to the mix, with Cameron Ling wearing Sam Mitchell like a cheap suit, and they're incredibly hard to beat. If Collingwood don't lift, I think the Cats will win the flag.
Ryan: Now Nick, Collingwood's win on Saturday was full of merit. The Eagles are a tough team anywhere and the Pies were one or two runs short of their best. They needed to win on Saturday against the odds and they did. It was among the best finals performances I've seen from a Collingwood team, heart and a few individuals such as Pendlebury and O'Brien and Maxwell (isn't he a brilliant finals player) each doing the work of two men. Everyone to a man contributed.
Lovett: Jimmy Bartel is one of the great finals players of the past decade. Goes from a wonderful home and away player to an absolute star in September. If he was a racehorse, he'd be a Group 1 performer...no wonder Dennis and Bruce love him!
Johnson and Johnson!
Ryan: Would Steve Johnson be regarded in the same light as Daniel Motlop if he wasn't lucky enough to play in a good team?
Lovett: Motlop wouldn't carry Stevie J's bags. Every Geelong fan knows you get a bit of everything with Stevie—flair, lair, stupidity and brilliance. Just go back and watch the tape of him against Melbourne in round 19. I get the shudders to think he could have gone to Collingwood or Essendon at the end of 2006. Imagine Stevie J playing for the Pies!
Twomey: Cameron Ling and Andrew Mackie were on radio on Saturday morning after the win and were both asked about Johnson's Friday night performance, particularly his bizarre last quarter. They said it's his unpredictability that makes him so good, so they can accept the bad occasionally. Ling said after some moments - such as when Johnson was tied up close to the boundary line and instead of taking the ball out kicked it the wrong way out on the full - he would remind Stevie of the simple things. The simple things don't seem to keep him entertained sometimes though.
Ryan: Luckily his last quarter had no effect and can be put down as a learning experience. Great talent but teams win premierships not individuals.
Bowen: Peter, how can you mention Steve Johnson and Daniel Motlop in the same breath? Seriously. It's a bit early to be hitting the bottle, don't you think?
Kotton: Steve Johnson is a much more consistent player than Daniel Motlop. Johnson has performed in big games and in the big moments. He can frustrate, but he is capable of a few pieces of brilliance that can make all the difference.
Slattery: Stevie Johnson is the player every team needs — one who can abuse the STRUCTURES that dominate, by breaking open the game. A player you can't plan to beat, just hope. The beauty of our game is that it allows players like this to do their own thing every now and again. Imagine if every player was Cameron Ling...
Ryan: They'd be like Geelong in the early 80s, Scratcher Neal, Bruns and Mossop. Nick, a bloke yelling out 'Ross Brewer your bloods worth bottling' at the end of the 1981 First Semi is one of my favourite memories as a kid. Brewer had snapped a goal from the same spot as Paul Chapman's in the 2009 Grand Final. Aah, finals memories stay with you forever, don't they?
The Magpies not yet in full flight
Ryan: Collingwood's win was brave on Saturday but again they were outscored in the last quarter for the fifth week in succession and 8 out of the last 12 since the bye. What is behind that?
Bowen: As a Collingwood supporter, you'd be hoping they've had an intensive bracket of training aimed at getting them to peak on the first Saturday in October. The rest of us can only hope the wheels are falling off.
Kotton: No doubt a few of the Magpies were underdone on Saturday. They struggled to get flow and cohesion in their game for long periods, but did enough when it counted. The break will help a few of them and the return of Thomas will be a huge bonus.
Slattery: Let's hope Pendlebury polls well in the Brownlow. I doubt I've seen a player who a) has so much time and b) makes the right decision so often, and c) does it without any fuss. He's in the James Hird category. Geelong's Jimmy Bartel is up there too — never makes a poor decision. Champion Data ought to balance Clangers with Great Decisions.
Bowen: Interesting, GS, Pendlebury went at No. 5 in the 2005 Draft, X Ellis at No. 3. Reckon the Hawks would like their time over again.
Ryan: I said after the game Pendlebury is the best midfielder I've seen at Collingwood. He did make one poor decision, his loose handball deep in defence in the second quarter, but was quickly forgiven. Getting back to take a contested mark late in the last was real team oriented stuff. He is a massive chance to win the Brownlow. Ted Hopkins compared Pendlebury Thomas and Swan last week as similar in impact as Cousins, Judd and Kerr in their glory days. Interesting comparison and not unreasonable. The Pies are up to their neck in the premiership race. Of course it's going to be hard to win but Saturday was a massive hurdle to jump to be where they want to with a chance to have the team as ready as they would like. Great effort and I reckon even money with Cats.
Ryan: What is your reaction to Tom Scully deciding to leave Melbourne and join GWS? Should there have been a limit on recruiting players with two years experience?
Kotton: It has been the worst-kept secret in football for a while. There would be a few people at Melbourne who would feel let down by the decision and deserve to be well compensated for it. He has played the last part of the season looking like someone with the weight of the world on his shoulders.
Bowen: If I was a Melbourne supporter, I'd be shattered. One - to lose a player of that potential. Two - to get just two years' service from him. No other No. 1 Draft pick has up and left after such a short period of time. The only other one who comes to memory was Des Headland leaving the Brisbane Lions, but he at least hung around at the Gabba for four years. The Crows are also entitled to be filthy. Phil Davis was the No. 10 pick in the 2008 Draft, the one before Scully's. As a key position defender, he did not play in his first year. Then he played 15 games in his second year and injury restricted him to just three this year. Early draft picks are such a huge investment in a club's future. They're a volatile enough commodity as it is without having them ripped from you when they're still developing. But they're the rules at the moment. Thankfully, this loophole will close at the end of next year. And, thankfully, when free agency comes in players can only leave a club after giving a minimum eight years' service.
Ryan: Young man, made a decision in his best interests and within the rules and obviously believes he can deliver. The more he lets footy do his talking the better from here-on-in but that is going to be difficult. I reckon good luck to him personally. I would make the same decision. But if I barracked for the Demons I would be very disappointed. Such decisions create questions in supporters' minds. Everyone will get over it very quickly but you have to take a non-emotional attitude to it to do so. Football supporting is - like every sport - about some sort of illogical emotion.
Slattery: Scully has every right to take up the offer and join the new kids on the block. We can only presume he has had the best advice — financially, through mentors, and family — to come to this decision. I have two issues with it: 1. It would seem that the planners did not consider the potential of high draft picks in their second seasons making the switch. The game is based on the fanatical loyalty of the fans to club — the only loyalty left in the game. The administrators need to be very careful if they allow this fundamental to be varied in even the smallest way. Of course, we've been through this before (Jeff White, Anthony Rocca, Shannon Grant etc), but it seems to have far more importance in this extremely competitive era—especially for a club as fragile as Melbourne. 2. It infuriates me that deceit flourishes when it is clear AFTER the event, that decisions have been made well in advance. The rule should have been that once a player had agreed to switch, that was announced, Mature-thinking clubs and fans would prefer this process rather than the will he, won't he nonsense we've endured with Campbell Brown, Jarrod Harbrow, Gary Ablett of last year, and now Tom Scully this year. Every person who cares about his future is entitled to switch his employment, and I know none who have not given their all while in their original employment. Ablett was superb last year, as was Harbrow. Brown had an injury-interrupted year, and played his last game for the Hawks with a broken hand.
Twomey: A lot of people are playing the man and not the ball here. It's easy to have a crack at Scully, but the system should be the target. It seems a little short-sighted that nobody who signed off on the system believed these type of players wouldn't be attracted by the dollars - or didn't have the foresight to even predict it as a possibility. I can't blame him at all. He's 20 and has six years of extraordinary money coming his way.
Ryan: Can we look at the upcoming games: Swans v Hawthorn first.
Lovett: Swans for me. Hawks can't win without Buddy.
Kotton: I'm worried about the Hawks' ability to kick goals in the absence of 'Buddy' Franklin. Then I'm worried about the Swans' poor record recently at the MCG. Because of that reason alone, I'm leaning slightly towards the Hawks, but don't underestimate the Adam Goodes factor. Do it for Goodesy in his 300th game.
Ryan: History says Hawks but they are more vulnerable then ever. Their midfield won't play as badly again and their young players will be better for the experience so I reckon Hawthorn just. Sydney has been playing big games for a while now, don't play the MCG well and are due for a fall. But the Swans form - beaten Geelong and St Kilda twice in the past month. Hawks in a bob of the head finish.
Bowen: The Hawks are vulnerable, but I think they'll find a way. Their resilience this season has been remarkable so now's not the time to lose faith in them. Obviously, who they play on Goodes will be a key match-up. I think he's a good chance to spend most of the game up forward, as long as the Swans can break even in the midfield. With him and Sam Reid, the Swans may think they can stretch the Hawks' defence the same way the Cats did.
Twomey: Also think the Swans can win if Franklin doesn't play. As always in Swans games, a lot will ride on the performance of Goodes. Also, the last time the Swans were at the G, they were horrible and Richmond won easily. Since, they've beaten St Kilda twice, Geelong in Geelong and the Brisbane Lions. They are in some good form.
Slattery: Betfair has Hawthorn $1.62, Swans $2.50—looks about right to me, with or without the Hawks 23. West Coast -Carlton is a much closer show, more like a preliminary final match up than a qualifying final. There was not that much between them through the season, and Carlton has always performed well in the west. Still, the home ground for WCE is a terrific push. West Coast by 14.
Ryan: Looks like we've moved to Eagles v Carlton?
Lovett: The Eagles at home should just get the money. They were by far the best of the beaten brigade at the weekend.
Twomey: Eagles should win and play their ground so well, but they'll be pretty keen to get Daniel Kerr back after missing him on the weekend and given's Carlton's strength at stoppages.
Bowen: Eagles. Judging by HK's demeanour today, the Blue-baggers are a touch pleased with themselves today. I believe Howard requested It's A Wonderful World be played before his SEN gig last night. Makes you wonder whether they'll have the hunger against the Eagles this Saturday. More seriously, though, I think the home ground advantage will get the Eagles over the line.
Ryan: Will be a cracking final this one, a potential Grand Final this time next year. I saw both teams on the weekend and they were equally impressive. A bigger worry for the Blues than the ruck is the size of the Eagles forwards and obviously the at home factor. The Eagles just.
Kotton: Now this will surprise you—I believe Carlton will win. The finals monkey is off the back and the Blues will play with more freedom and dare. The fitness doubts over Cox and Gibbs for their respective teams are crucial. The return of Kerr will help the Eagles, but the Blues' runners will be suited by the open spaces at Patersons Stadium. Carlton's focus will be to keep the crowd out of the game early with a strong start. Yes, Nick, I asked for that song to be played, but the song I want to hear this week is the Blues' theme song after the game. I'm sure the players will be just as committed this week.
