Head to head: Brisbane Lions 20 wins, St Kilda 17 wins
Last time: St Kilda 14.13 (97) d Brisbane Lions 13.3 (81), round nine, 2009 at Etihad Stadium
MISSING IN ACTION
Brisbane Lions
Jed Adcock (foot) - 3 weeks
Matt Austin (leg) - season
Donald Barry (sinus) - TBC
Callum Bartlett (knee) - season
Jonathan Brown (abdominal strain) - 2 weeks
Jamie Charman (ankle) - season
Xavier Clarke (knee) - test
Josh Drummond (knee) - indefinite
Brendan Fevola (groin) - test
Mitch Golby (knee) - season
Matt Maguire (foot) - 2 weeks
St Kilda
David Armitage (knee) - test*
Raphael Clarke (hamstring) - test*
Robert Eddy (knee) - test*
Jason Gram (groin/hamstring) - test*
Justin Koschitzke (foot) - indefinite
Jesse Smith (ankle) - season*
*Estimate only. Club has not provided official timeframe
FORM
Brisbane Lions: WLLLL
St Kilda: WWWWW
SUMMARY
The Brisbane Lions are looking more vulnerable than ever and the Saints are one of the worst teams to be coming up against when you’ve hit a bad patch of form.
The most worrying sign of their recent form slump is that they have lost very winnable games against Richmond, Carlton and North Melbourne.
The Saints on the other hand have made every post a winner. Last week’s defeat of Melbourne wasn’t pretty by any means but St Kilda still got the job done.The most worrying sign of their recent form slump is that they have lost very winnable games against Richmond, Carlton and North Melbourne.
Both teams had very limited forward lines that could be boosted this week with the return of Brendan Fevola for the Lions and Nick Riewoldt and Justin Koschitzke for the Saints.
The Lions need more out of players like Daniel Rich and Mitch Clark who have both failed to continue on with their momentum from last year.
PLAYER TO WATCH
The entire football world will be watching closely to see if, and how, Nick Riewoldt returns from his long-term hamstring injury. It is unlikely he will pick up where he left off but champions always provide something. It will also be interesting to see how much game time he gets.
He still has to prove his fitness after missing last week with a groin injury but that is not the only thing Brendan Fevola has to prove. His body language and form in the game against Richmond were below par and the Lions need a big input from him if they are to challenge St Kilda. Fevola struggled against the Saints in his Carlton days but that was mainly because the retired Max Hudghton was his direct opponent.
QUESTION MARKS
How much will the Saints game plan change with Riewoldt back in the mix? Coach Ross Lyon has said it took his side a while to adjust to life without their skipper but they managed to do so by relying more on their smaller forwards and midfielders to kick the goals. It’s not as simple as reverting to the 2009 plan with him back in but you can bet they will be looking for him.
Can the Lions get the ball into attack? They were smashed in inside-50s last week 58-39 and will find it no easier this week against the pressure of the Saints’ midfield. Simon Black is the only Lions midfielder worrying opposition teams at the moment and he will have a hard night against Clint Jones.
WHO WILL WIN AND WHY
The only thing the Lions have going for them in this one is home ground advantage. The Saints have won only two of 15 matches at the Lions’ home ground but that will not be a big factor in this one. With Riewoldt and possibly Koschitzke and Jason Gram back in the side they are too strong a force to be dealt with and should take this one easily.
PREDICTION
St Kilda by 36 points
Chat with host Scott Beveridge and other fans in the AFL Match Centre on afl.com.au from 6.40pm Saturday or join the conversation on Twitter: #afllionssaints
The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.
