SEPTEMBER is a time when teams will lean on their strengths more than ever in pursuit of a premiership, but all eight contenders will also bring a weakness into this year's finals series that their opponents will try to exploit.
Sydney will back its League-leading spread of goalkickers to remain the highest scoring team, while the Western Bulldogs will attempt to continue an unrivalled defensive run since round 16. Geelong's defence, Hawthorn's groundball game, and Greater Western Sydney's attacking handballs will also be key September assets.
With the help of Champion Data, we identify every top-eight team's three key statistical strengths from 2024, and their main weakness ahead of a huge opening week of September.
Port Adelaide v Geelong, qualifying final
PORT ADELAIDE
Strengths: The Power are pressure specialists, as they showed in round 24 against Fremantle, and rank second in the League for pressure factor across the season (187), winning 13 of the 17 games in which they have come out on top. Defending stoppage is another major strength, conceding just 27.4 points a game from clearances (No.2 in the League). When it comes to the back six, last year's recruiting drive and the form of Aliir Aliir has allowed Port to control the air, conceding just 8.9 marks a game in defensive 50 (No.1 in the League).
Weakness: Port's finals record – and specifically its key scoring indicators in September – is a weakness. The team has a differential of +5.3 points from turnovers during the home-and-away season, which drops to -6.7 in finals. From clearances, the scoring differentials drop from +7.1 to -10.3 in September.
GEELONG
Strengths: The Cats have turned a weakness into a strength in the past nine weeks, conceding just 75.6 points a game (No.6 in the League) after averaging 105.1 points against from rounds seven to 15 (No.18). The backline has also been launching scores, with Geelong ranked No.3 in the League for points from defensive half chains (36.1 a game). They average a League-high 19.2 from defensive 50. In attack, the Cats are kicking a goal from 25.7 per cent of their inside 50s (No.3).
Weakness: Finals can become a much more contested brand, and Geelong is one of only three finalists in the negative for contested possession differential. It has won the count in just 36.4 per cent of games (No.16), but has its midfield star Patrick Dangerfield in excellent touch ahead of finals.
Western Bulldogs v Hawthorn, elimination final
WESTERN BULLDOGS
Strengths: The Bulldogs are excellent at not letting opposition momentum get out of control, conceding five goals in a row only five times through the season (No.2 in the League). Rory Lobb's move to defence has been critical in enhancing the team's defensive game, keeping opponents to fewer than 60 points four times since round 16. The Bulldogs give backline coaches nightmares with their ability to score from forward 50 stoppages (11.3 points a game, No.1) and forward 50 turnovers (11.7, No.1). Their forwards also prevent opposition teams from launching effective ball-movement, ranking No.2 in the League for opposition inside 50s from defensive 50 chains.
Weakness: The Bulldogs' midfield has shortcomings with both its ability to win hitouts-to-advantage (-4.2 a game, No.17 in the League) and, by extension, first possessions at stoppages (-6.3 a game, No.18).
HAWTHORN
Strengths: The Hawks have become a scoring juggernaut, ranking a clear No.1 since round 19 (125.3 points a game) as their array of scoring options run riot. They exploit momentum and have kicked five goals in a row 16 times this season (only Sydney has achieved this more). They are the competition's best groundball team (+8.9) and have a form-line since round eight that exceeds any team, ranking No.1 for points scored, points conceded, disposal differential, contested possession differential and uncontested possession differential.
Weakness: There is one statistical weakness for the Hawks, who rank No.11 overall for pressure rating (179) and second last among finalists. They also lost the tackle count by an average of seven per game across the season, but this can be attributed to their possession strength.
Sydney v Greater Western Sydney, qualifying final
SYDNEY
Strengths: The Swans' goalkicking midfielders give them several statistical strengths, including the League's best scoring spread, with an average of 8.1 goalkickers a game. They also rank No.1 with 97.5 points a game and 55.9 points from turnovers. They are the AFL's best team for scores from clearance differential (+10.7), thanks in large part to the front half power of Chad Warner (32 goals) and Isaac Heeney (28). While the Swans spend less time in the front half that their opposition, they rank No.2 for points from forward half stoppages and forward half turnovers.
Weakness: Slow starts have become a habit for the Swans, who have led at quarter-time only three times since round 10 and have been outscored by 13.2 points a game in first quarters over this period.
GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY
Strengths: The Giants' 'Orange Tsunami' game style is a proven finals brand that sees the team lead the League in metres gained from handball (480.2m per game), averaging 284.7m more than their opponents per game. They are also the League's best pressure team, ranking No.1 for pre-clearance pressure and No.3 for post-clearance pressure. With Coleman medallist Jesse Hogan leading the way, the Giants have a shot at goal accuracy of 54.7 per cent (No.2 in the League). At the other end of the ground their defenders are preventing easy shots, with the Giants ranking No.2 for opposition shot at goal accuracy (45.1 per cent).
Weakness: The Giants have relied heavily on Tom Green (55) and ruckman Kieren Briggs (53) for centre clearances this season, with both ranked in the top 10 across the competition. It hasn't converted into a scoring source, however, with the team ranked No.12 for points from centre bounce differential.
Brisbane v Carlton, elimination final
BRISBANE
Strengths: The Lions have the best balance when it comes to scoring from and defending turnovers, ranking No.1 for scores from turnover differential. Their ability to control territory is a big factor, winning the inside 50 count by 10.1 a game (No.2) and time in forward half differential by 7:46 (No.2). The Lions' form line stacks up, with just two losses since their round 12 bye, ranking No.1 on the form ladder since then. They are one of only two teams to average more than 100 points in that time.
Weakness: The Lions have the third lowest pressure rating across the season (176), with only West Coast and Richmond applying less heat. Their pressure factor of 150 in the final round was the club's lowest ever on record.
CARLTON
Strengths: The Blues might not generate a lot of forward half intercepts (No.14 overall), but they have scored from 36.6 per cent of them and added a competition-high 30.1 points a game from the key source. Efficiency and conversion is crucial for the Blues, who scored from 48.2 per cent of their entries (No.2), kicking a goal from 26.7 per cent of them (N0.1). Their shot at goal accuracy of 53.5 per cent ranks No.3. Carlton also has a trendsetting contest game, winning the contested possession count in 73.9 per cent of games (No.1 in the AFL).
Weakness: The Blues' formline has been an issue since round 16 as they have battled a recent spate of injuries, ranking No.13 on the form ladder in that time. They have ranked outside the top eight in points scored, points conceded, time in forward half differential and defending ball movement in that time.