MAX Gawn's costly final-minute miss against Geelong on Sunday is not so surprising on closer inspection of his pedestrian career numbers in front of goal.
Melbourne's star ruckman would almost certainly have delivered the Demons a season-opening victory for the fourth straight year if he had slotted his set shot from inside 30m.
Full match coverage: Melbourne v Geelong
Instead, Gawn pulled his kick, from 26m out on a slight angle, to the left – a common theme in his relative struggles from within that range.
He has now booted only 10 goals from 19 set shots between 15m and 30m out (52.6 per cent accuracy), including misfiring to the left on seven occasions.
That ratio improves to 58.8 per cent when two set shot snaps are removed from Gawn's record.
Robert Younger, who works in analytics at Port Adelaide, wrote on Twitter that data from the past five seasons reveals the average footballer, under average pressure, kicks the Gawn shot 83 per cent of the time.
Based on data from the last 5 years, the average player (under avg pressure) sinks the Gawn shot about 83% of the time. 26m out on an angle of 21 degrees. Rough way to end it.
— Robert Younger (@figuringfooty) March 25, 2018
For comparison's sake, Cats forward Daniel Menzel's miss from 15m, only minutes before Gawn's heartbreak, placed him among the five per cent of players who fail from that spot.
Gawn was pivotal in Melbourne fighting back from a 27-point half-time deficit with 10 disposals, 13 hit-outs and a goal from just inside 50m in the third term.