Head to head: Sydney Swans 83 wins, Carlton 125 wins, six draws
Last time: Carlton 10.8 (68) def by Sydney Swans 16.11 (107), round 16, 2010 at Etihad Stadium
MISSING IN ACTION
Sydney Swans
Ed Barlow (hamstring) - 1 week
Craig Bird (foot) - 1-2 weeks
Craig Bolton (achilles) - 2-3 weeks
Dan Hannebery (hamstring) - test
Tadhg Kennelly (knee) - test
Ben McGlynn (cheekbone) - 1-2 weeks
Brett Meredith (hip) - test
Shane Mumford (knee) - test
Jake Orreal (back) - season
Lewis Roberts-Thomson (hamstring) - 1 week
Mark Seaby (ankle) - season
Kristin Thornton (hamstring) - test
Carlton
Andrew Carrazzo (hamstring) - test
Ryan Houlihan (knee) - season
Matthew Kreuzer (knee) - season
Kane Lucas (hamstring) - season
Rhys O’Keeffe (back) - season
Simon White (hip) - season
FORM
Sydney Swans: LWWWW
Carlton: LWWLL
SUMMARY
The Swans’ ripping month of football to finish off the premiership season has announced them as a serious September contender. They have confounded the doomsayers who had them sliding down the ladder in Paul Roos’ last year at the helm with recent wins over fellow finalists Fremantle, Hawthorn and the Western Bulldogs helping earn them a home final. It came right down to the last game against the Brisbane Lions. They were challenged early, but the Swans powered away in the second half to earn the right to host the Blues at ANZ Stadium.
Carlton has not enjoyed such a positive run to September, with losses to Geelong and Fremantle seeing them scrape into the eight with 11 wins and a percentage advantage over North Melbourne. The Blues are sweating on the availability of Andrew Carrazzo, who sustained a hamstring strain against Freo last week.
PLAYER TO WATCH
Newly-crowned NAB AFL Rising Star Daniel Hannebery has exceeded expectations in his second season and it will be interesting to see how he copes with the step-up in intensity of a final.
With Shane Mumford battling injury to play, Robbie Warnock looms as a key figure. He’s been impressive over the last month or so and the ruck could be an area that the Blues can exploit.
QUESTION MARKS
How will the Swans play ANZ Stadium? They didn’t hide their desire to play at the SCG, which suits their close-in game better than the larger ANZ.
Can the Blues recapture their early-season form? They were pretty impressive early, but as the season dragged on they seemed to lose their way and look to have the job ahead of them here.
WHO WILL WIN AND WHY
If this game was at the SCG you would tip the Swans with greater confidence, but they should still get over the line. They’ve played the better footy over the past month while the Blues have been patchy at best. Carlton’s best chance is to use its leg speed on the larger ground to break the game open, but you fancy the Swans will be able to do enough to bottle it up.
PREDICTION
Sydney Swans by 13 points
Chat with host Paul Johsnon and other fans in the AFL Match Centre on afl.com.au from 2.10pm Sunday or join the conversation on Twitter: #aflswansblues
The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.
