SUMMARY

THE FIRST non-Victorian Grand Final since 2006 will pit the two most recent Grand Final losers against each other.

Sydney, the most dominant team all year, is looking to avenge its heavy defeat to Geelong in the 2022 decider, while the Lions are looking to bury the demons of last year and win their first flag in 21 years.

It will be John Longmire's fifth Grand Final at the Swans, with the 2012 premiership coach desperate to change his current 1-3 record in season deciders.

Having come so close last year, Lions mentor Chris Fagan could become the first senior coach ever to win a VFL/AFL flag without having played the game at the top level. History also awaits his Lions side, which would become just the second team after the Western Bulldogs in 2016 to win the premiership from outside the top four.

The Lions have won five of their past six games against the Swans, but Sydney defied an even worse record last week in thrashing Port Adelaide at the SCG.

Where and when: MCG, Saturday September 28, 2.30pm AEST

WHAT HAPPENED THIS YEAR? 

Round 19: Brisbane 11.13 (79) defeated Sydney 11.11 (77) at the Gabba

In arguably the best game of the home and away season, Brisbane kicked four goals to two in the final term to win a thrilling contest at the Gabba. The Lions started with five goals to one in the opening quarter before Sydney bounced back with six to one in the second to lead at the main break. After an even third term and five lead changes in the fourth, Cal Ah Chee's brilliant left foot snap settled the result with three minutes remaining. The Swans, already without key men James Rowbottom and Justin McInerney, fought admirably despite losing Dane Rampe and Tom Papley to injury early in the game, while Will Hayward was also hobbled badly by an ankle injury. Cam Rayner and Hugh McCluggage had a huge impact for the Lions along with Dayne Zorko off half-back, while Errol Gulden was Sydney's best.

THE STATS THAT MATTER

Sydney
The Swans have been a lethal intercept side all year and it was a huge feature of their win over Port Adelaide last Friday night. The Swans outscored the Power by 52 points from intercept possessions, their best differential this season. It was the 18th time this year that the Swans have outscored their opponents from intercepts, and they have won all 18 of those games. However, the most dangerous team on intercept all year has been the Lions, who have outscored their opponents by 13.2 points per game from intercept possessions.

Brisbane
Brisbane's kick-mark game has been pivotal to its success this season. The Lions have won 14 of the 17 games in which they have taken at least 100 marks, while they have a 3-1-5 record when they haven't reached 100. Their work by hand was also pivotal in opening up the game against Geelong last week. Of the 533m gained the Lions had against the Cats - their most in a final since the 2017 prelim against Richmond - 271m came from handballs in the second half alone compared to 177m in the first half. If the Lions need to chase the game, they are willing and able to take things on via handball.

IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR… 

Sydney
From the moment Oscar McInerney dislocated his shoulder for a second time against Geelong last Saturday night, the focus turned to Swans ruck Brodie Grundy. The former Magpie and Demon has been reborn in Sydney this season, displaying some of the form that made him a two-time All-Australian at Collingwood. While his impact tailed off late in the season, he's had some good moments in his two finals so far and looks ready to have a major say on Saturday. Up against likely inclusion Darcy Fort and Joe Daniher, Grundy's impact at the contest will be absolutely crucial if Sydney is to nullify Brisbane's midfield weapons and let its own attacking guns loose.

Brisbane
The fortunes of Brisbane over a wild past fortnight have almost perfectly mirrored those of veteran Dayne Zorko. Shut down in the first half against the Giants two weeks ago, Zorko bobbed up with two late goals as the Lions famously overturned a 44-point deficit to win. And against Geelong, Zorko was guilty of some crucial turnovers at the Cats took control of the game before the veteran rallied to be one of his side's best in another comeback victory. Zorko had a massive 27 kicks (and just two handballs) against the Swans in round 19, but it's unlikely Sydney will give the All-Australian that much freedom this weekend. A hard tag from James Jordon, like James Peatling applied for the Giants two weeks ago, looms for Zorko on Saturday. How he can handle that will have a major say in who lifts the premiership cup.

PREDICTION

These two produced one of the games of the season back in round 19 and we look set for another belter on what is expected to be a warm and sunny day at the MCG. In a match-up between two of the highest scoring teams of the year, the ability of both sides to continue to take risks with ball in hand despite the pressure of a Grand Final will be telling. In such an even match-up on paper, it will ultimately come down to a battle above the shoulders, with both sets of players and coaches looking to banish recent Grand Final demons. Sydney has been the best team all year and deserves to start favourites, but the Lions are riding a stunning wave of momentum and will be ready to strike if given the chance. Sydney by 10 points in a Grand Final classic.