THE FAVOURITES
Dane Swan
The clear favourite with the bookmakers, Swan could easily poll maximum votes on at least five occasions. The prolific onballer was near-unstoppable throughout July, which he kicked off with a 38-possession, two-goal effort in a big win over West Coast at Etihad Stadium. He followed that up with 39, 36 and 37-disposal matches and booted a goal in each of those wins.
Swan's durability will work in his favour with the Magpie the only one of the top fancies to play all 22 home and away games.
Gary Ablett
A summer of Gold Coast speculation had little effect on Ablett who stormed out of the blocks and could well get votes in every match before round six, when he dropped out of the side with a hamstring strain. He didn't miss a beat on his return with a 38-possession, two-goal effort against the Swans, kicking off another run of likely polling performances which should see him leading the field at the halfway mark of the season.
He hit a bit of a flat spot soon after, but finished the season well with quality games against the Western Bulldogs and the Eagles.
Luke Hodge
Hodge wasn't as consistent as Swan and Ablett, but he was good early, which should see him attract some votes in a then-struggling team. The Hawthorn vice-captain monstered a few sides along the way, starting with a 34-possession solo demolition of Melbourne in round one.
He put in an eye-catching 33-touch display in the thrilling draw against the Saints in round 17, but a quieter finish to the year - including a knee injury against Fremantle that ruled him out of round 22 - should see him fall short.
EARLY LEADER
Ablett should lead the way at the halfway mark, but don't be surprised to see Fremantle sensation Michael Barlow poll well in the first half of the season. It will depend on how soon the umpires latch onto the 'new kid', but a 33-possession, two-goal debut against the Crows in round one should have put him on their radar straight up.
There's every chance he could feature high on the leaderboard up until he suffers that sickening broken leg in round 14.
HISTORICAL POLLER
Adam Goodes has been the apple of the umpiring fraternity's eye for years now and it wouldn't surprise to see him get among the votes again. The dual-Brownlow winner put in a few uncharacteristic performances across the season, but still came up big for his team on plenty of occasions.
His chances might be hurt by the extra time he spent in attack in 2010, but performances like his 33-disposal, three-goal effort in the round 15 win over North Melbourne will surely see the umps bite.
SMOKEY
Aaron Sandilands loomed large over Fremantle's season and the umpires certainly couldn't have missed him. The All Australian ruckman racked up some pretty garish numbers over the journey with 25 possessions, two goals and 43 hit-outs against the Pies in round eight one of the many highlights of his year.
A late foot injury kept him out of three games, which saw him drift in the betting.
LATE BOLTER
Brendon Goddard had an excellent season and he really finished it off strongly. He registered his first 30-plus possession game of the year in round nine and broke that mark another eight times as the Saints charged to a top-four berth.
He had 37 touches in the round 20 win over the Kangaroos and the quality of his disposal will draw the votes.
WATCH FOR ... SCOTT PENDLEBURY TO TAKE VOTES OFF DANE SWAN
Sure, Ablett has a bunch of star teammates to contend with as he attempts to go back to back, but the days when he was really on should earn all three votes because he was just that much better than the next man. When Swan was good, Pendlebury was almost always excellent as well and would have forced the umpires into a tough choice.
Consider in round 11 against the Dogs when Swan had 35 touches and Pendlebury had 33, but had more contested possessions and used the ball a bit better. If that happens often enough it could prove the difference.
PREDICTION
Ablett (30 votes) will go back to back, edging out Swan (29).
The views in this article are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.
Join the Brownlow Medal conversation on Twitter: use #Brownlow in your tweets.
