After nine rounds, North sits 13th on the ladder with just three wins, having dropped four games by four points or less.
History suggests the Roos can start booking their September holidays now.
Just four teams have overcome a 3-6 season start to make the final eight since it was introduced in 1994. No team with a worse record after nine rounds has made the final eight.
Brisbane has overcome a 3-6 start twice, first as the Bears in 1995 when it finished eighth with 10 wins – the worst home and away record of any finalist since 1994 – and then as the Lions in 1997 when it finished eighth with 10 wins and a draw.
West Coast flew home in 2004, winning 10 of its last 13 games to climb from 13th after nine rounds to seventh at the end of the home and away season, on 13 wins.
Hawthorn finished almost as strongly in 2010, also climbing from 13th after nine rounds to seventh at the end of the home and away season, on 12 wins and a draw.
Can North mount a similar tilt at the finals this year?
North skipper Andrew Swallow said on Monday the finals were the furthest thing from the Roos' minds, with the club focused on winning back the respect it had lost recently.
Swallow was speaking after emerging from a two-hour review of North's one-point loss to the Crows, a meeting in which coach Brad Scott pinpointed why the Roos lost after leading by 30 points midway through the final quarter.
At his post-match press conference a day earlier, Scott said the Roos had lost the "unloseable" game against the Crows.
Swallow said the loss had left the North playing group the "flattest" he had ever seen it.
Which is totally understandable. Who would have believed North could lose after the siren against West Coast one week and then lose to the Crows the next – after leading all day – in the dying seconds?
But Crow Jared Petrenko emerged to play the last-second hero against the Roos just as Eagle Nic Naitanui had done the week before.
Add their four-point loss to Geelong in round two and three-point loss to Hawthorn in round five, and you could forgive the Roos for wondering if they're ever going to win a close game again.
But the pall over Aegis Park will lift. North's 2013 form has been too strong for it not too.
The question remains: will it lift soon enough for the Roos to salvage their season?
It's highly likely the Roos will need at least 11 wins to make this year's finals. Other than the Brisbane teams of 1995 and 1997, Essendon is the only other team since 1994 to make the finals with fewer than 11 wins, its 10 wins and a draw in 2009 good enough for eighth.
More likely, North will need at least 12 wins. That's been the case in 10 of the past 19 seasons, with at least 12 wins needed to play finals in seven of those years, at least 13 needed in two and 14 needed last season when the Roos finished eighth.
North can take heart from their finish to last season, when it overcame a 4-6 start to reach its first finals series since 2008 with a 10-2 finish to the home and away season.
Although North will start favourite to improve its 2013 record to 4-6 this weekend against St Kilda, its run home includes matches against Fremantle (at Patersons Stadium), Geelong, Adelaide (at AAMI Stadium), Essendon, Hawthorn and Collingwood.
The Roos have also conceded two-game headstarts to the teams currently sitting sixth to 11th on the ladder, in order, West Coast, Adelaide, Carlton, Port Adelaide, Richmond and Collingwood.
However, until it's a mathematical impossibility North fans will live in hope that the Roos can turn their season around and climb into the final eight.
North's ability to do so might come down to whether it can start to put its foot on the throats of opponents it has as its mercy, and to whether it can start to hold its nerve better in games that go down to the wire.
Nick Bowen covers North Melbourne news for AFL.com.au. Follow him on Twitter: @AFL_Nick
