Head to head: Hawthorn 67 wins, Geelong 75 wins, one draw
Last time: Geelong 15.9 (99) d Hawthorn 14.14 (98), round 17, 2009 at the MCG
MISSING IN ACTION
Hawthorn
Max Bailey (knee) - indefinite
Shaun Burgoyne (hamstring) - 2-3 weeks
Cyril Rioli (groin) - test
Brad Sewell (collar bone) - TBC
Wayde Skipper (hamstring) - 5-7 weeks
Simon Taylor (broken leg) - 16 weeks
Geelong
Mitch Brown (leg) - 4-6 weeks
Tom Gillies (groin) - 1 week
Darren Milburn (hamstring) - 2 weeks
Mathew Stokes (club suspension) - 6 weeks
Travis Varcoe (thumb) - 6 weeks
SUMMARY
Hawthorn looked terrific in its season opener against Melbourne. And the good news for coach Alastair Clarkson is his side - still with plenty of big names to resume - will only get better.
Lance Franklin and Chance Bateman, both back from suspension, start that trend this week, while Cyril Rioli is also a chance to return from a groin complaint. His inclusion would add another dimension to the forward pressure applied last week by Campbell Brown and recruit Rhan Hooper. Down back, the Hawks’ defence looked settled for the first time in more than a year. That allowed Luke Hodge a greater influence further afield.
Geelong was scratchy early against the Bombers before running out its match surprisingly well for a team whose pre-season was questioned by some. The reigning premiers finished with a head of steam as their A-graders went into overdrive to set up the 31-point victory.
The Cats are close to full strength despite missing a couple of smaller forwards who might usually get a game. Luckily for Mark Thompson, Paul Chapman, Steve Johnson and the ever-improving Shannon Byrnes all looked in great nick in round one.
But while their attacking influence will be important, one suspects the stopping jobs by Matthew Scarlett and Harry Taylor - on Franklin and Roughead - down the other end may be more pivotal to the outcome.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Hawk ruckman Brent Renouf was good against Melbourne last week although Mark Jamar - who was among the Demons best - and Jake Spencer don’t strike fear into their opponents. This week Renouf faces a far bigger task. While Mark Blake is growing in capability, Brad Ottens has the ability to use his size to dominate opponents. The young Hawk can expect a working over but if he can hold his own, Clarkson’s team will be half-way home.
Geelong’s young star Joel Selwood started his season in superb fashion last week, willing his teammates back into the contest at times with his ferocious attack on the ball. With Brad Sewell still missing for Hawthorn, Selwood will be one of the few genuine bulls in the centre square this week. His attack on the footy was pivotal in round 17 last year, and the Hawks will need to match his aggression to prevent him having it all his own way on Easter Monday.
QUESTION MARKS
The slimmed-down Jordan Lewis and Luke Hodge looked in fantastic shape in round one for Hawthorn. How will 2008 Coleman medallist Franklin, also a couple of kilos lighter this season, fare in his return to senior football?
With Brad Sewell out of the side, the Hawks appear to have few tagging options for Gary Ablett. In what would be one of the more mouth-watering contests in some time, could we see Hodge go head-to-head with his former Geelong Falcons teammate?
WHO WILL WIN AND WHY
There’s no doubting Hawthorn has the weaponry to win. On their day, the Hawks are perhaps the most dangerous team in the competition. But the big question is just how much action will Franklin and Roughead see against one the best backlines of the past decade? Through Ottens, Geelong should win the majority of centre clearances. That could be crucial.One can expect another ripping contest between these two rivals but perhaps the Cats still have more stars on the paddock.
PREDICTION
Geelong by 15 points
The views in this article are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.
