The Lions may need to win to stay inside the top eight and Brown expects the fifth-placed Kangaroos to be fired up as well.

”North play a pretty similar style of play to what we want to play, so it’s going to be pretty tough,” Brown said.

”Over the years we’ve had some really good wins against them, but they beat us at Carrara last year.”

North Melbourne has made only one change to the side that defeated Melbourne last week, including key position utility Leigh Brown at the expense of Todd Goldstein.

For the Lions, Notting will miss for the first time in 78 games.

Brisbane Lions
B: Josh Drummond, Daniel Merrett, Joel Patfull
HB: Justin Sherman, Jason Roe, Ashley McGrath
C: Anthony Corrie, Simon Black, Jed Adcock
HF: Michael Rischitelli, Jonathan Brown, Jared Brennan
F: Rhan Hooper, Daniel Bradshaw, Mitch Clark
Foll: Jamie Charman, Luke Power, Travis Johnstone
I/C: Colm Begley, Bradd Dalziell, Scott Clouston, Albert Proud
EMG: Scott Harding, James Hawksley, Tim Notting

North Melbourne
B: Gavin Urquhart, Josh Gibson, Michael Firrito
HB: Shannon Watt, Drew Petrie, Sam Power
C: Daniel Pratt, Adam Simpson, Brady Rawlings
HF: Corey Jones, Lachlan Hansen, Brent Harvey
F: Matt Campbell, Leigh Brown, Daniel Wells
Foll: David Hale, Lindsay Thomas, Daniel Harris
I/C: Shannon Grant, Blake Grima, Leigh Harding, Scott McMahon
EMG: Jess Sinclair, Todd Goldstein, Eddie Sansbury

On the punt:

The odds-makers obviously think the Lions can return to the winners’ circle, installing them as early $1.65 favourites. To that end, a Lions victory over 39 or fewer points might be more attractive at $2.20.

After racking up 114 points in a losing effort last week, the Lions are equal second favourites at $7 (behind Geelong) to tally round 18’s highest score.

Speaking of Geelong, those who backed Gary Ablett to win the Brownlow Medal at short odds a few weeks ago might be kicking themselves. After missing consecutive games and not being selected this weekend, Ablett has drifted out to $3 for the win and $1.50 for the place.

Key match-up:

Justin Sherman (Lions) v Brent Harvey (North Melbourne): for a change the “as-named” teams might throw up a decisive match-up. Sherman has been selected on a half-back-flank opposed to Harvey and, after several handy stopping performances earlier in the year, might well be the man for the job. If Harvey can be quelled the Lions will go some ways towards winning – the Brownlow Medal second favourite has not dropped below 27 possessions since round 10.

Odds and sods:

The match is a North Melbourne home match but, based on form this year, the Roos would much rather be playing it in Melbourne. Dean Laidley’s side is 2-4 on interstate trips, with its only wins outside of Victoria coming against the battling West Coast (at Carrara) and Port Adelaide. North’s interstate losses have come against fellow top-eight aspirants Adelaide, St Kilda and the Lions, as well as Fremantle.

Although the third term is often called the premiership quarter, it could well be the second quarter that proves decisive on Saturday night. The Lions have won 11 of their 17 second terms to date, while the Kangaroos have outpointed their opponents in a rather less impressive total of five.

The Lions are currently below North Melbourne on the ladder but most scoring statistics favour Leigh Matthews’ men. The Lions have the higher percentage (105.27 to 97.80), more points for (1779 to 1589) and a higher highest score and greater lowest score for the year to date (141 to 127, 68 to 64). The Roos have conceded fewer points (1634 to 1690) but also have a lower average winning margin (20.00 to 29.40) and a bigger average losing margin (30.90 to 22.00)

The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the club