THERE  may only be three matches this weekend, but after last week’s upsets (hello, Brisbane Lions), picking a winner has never been more important. All three could go either way - so what has The Mozz got to say?

St Kilda v Geelong Cats

Why the Saints will win:

  • The last time the Saints met the Cats in this round was in 1977, and they won that match by 10 points, defeating a Geelong side that featured both Jack Hawkins and John Scarlett - fathers of current Cats Tom and Matthew, respectively.
  • The last time the Saints lined up for a grand final re-match, back in 1998 against Adelaide, they posted a 22-point victory, avenging the previous September’s defeat.

Why the Cats will win:

  • Recent history suggests the odds are in the Cats’ favour, having won four of their last five clashes with the Saints - the only loss coming in the famous battle of round 14, 2009 by six points.
  • Geelong have only played St Kilda at the MCG on four previous occasions, but have won three of those, with the Saints' single victory occurring way back in round 15, 1995.

The market*: St Kilda $3.55, Geelong $1.38

The Mozz: The long-awaited grand final re-match is finally here. But will it live up to the hype? Expect the unexpected, and also the inevitable - rain, and lots of it. The Saints will be desperate, but it should be the Cats by a whisker.

Sydney Swans v Collingwood

Why the Swans will win:

  • Despite struggling recently, the Swans hold the advantage over Collingwood in Sydney winning 13 of 24 matches.
  • The Swans record at ANZ Stadium against all teams is impressive with 19 wins from 31 games.

Why the Magpies will win:

  • Collingwood has dominated the team from the harbour city in recent seasons, winning the last eight encounters between the sides.
  • The Magpies' ANZ Stadium record is impressive thanks to five wins from their seven games and they have won their last four games.

The market*: Sydney Swans $2.30, Collingwood $1.74

The Mozz: The Swans moved up a place on the ladder last week - despite not actually playing, so the week off definitely did them good. But the Pies have been very comfortable on the road in recent times and should be just a little too hot for Roosy’s men to handle.

Adelaide Crows v Melbourne

Why the Crows will win:

  • Adelaide holds a clear head-to-head advantage over Melbourne at AAMI Stadium, winning 11 of 14 matches played. In fact, the Demons haven’t won at the venue for nearly a decade.
  • Despite losing to the Demons by six points in Round 3 this season, the Crows have in fact had the better of Melbourne in recent times, winning five of the last seven encounters.

Why the Demons will win:

  • Melbourne was too strong for Adelaide earlier this season, winning by 16 points in round 3 at the MCG.
  • The sides have clashed three times previously in Round 13 and the Demons hold the advantage with two wins including the most recent in 1999 at the MCG.

The market*: Adelaide $1.65, Melbourne $2.50

The Mozz: Dean Bailey says Melbourne’s recent form in Adelaide is disgraceful - but something tells the Mozz the Demons rotten run in the City of Churches is just about over (not unlike the Crows’ season).


The views in this article are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.
* - prices via Betfair.com, as at noon AEST, Friday June 25.

 
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