EACH week when I sit down to investigate who's going to win the Friday night clash and why, I cross my fingers and hope it doesn’t involve Geelong.
As we have seen over the past two-and-a-half seasons they are just about unbeatable. So I generally look to the weekend's games and try to find an interesting one between two teams that are closely matched and where the duel might be of particular interest to readers.
At first glance, tonight's match was no exception. But after analysing the teams a bit closer I thought; 'Why can’t the Bulldogs cause an upset?'
I got my board out and moved the magnets around like I was Dogs coach Rodney Eade, trying to get a line-up that could give the Cats a run for their money.
Much to my surprise, when I looked at every match-up and rated each individual contest – man on man – I started to convince myself that the Dogs are a chance:
B: David Johnson, Matthew Scarlett Andrew Mackie
F: Jason Akermanis, Scott Welsh, Shaun Higgins
HB: Joel Corey, Tom Harley, Harry Taylor
HF: Josh Hill, Mitch Hahn, Brad Johnson
C: Jimmy Bartel, Gary Ablett, Corey Enright
C: Liam Picken, Daniel Cross, Nathan Eagleton
HF: James Kelly, Max Rooke, Mathew Stokes
HB: Lindsay Gilbee, Tom Williams, Tim Callan
F: Paul Chapman, Tom Hawkins, Steve Johnson
B: Dale Morris, Brian Lake, Matthew Boyd
Foll: Mark Blake, Cameron Ling, Joel Selwood
Foll: Ben Hudson, Adam Cooney, Ryan Griffen
I/C: Shane Mumford, David Wojcinski, Travis Varcoe, Ryan Gamble
I/C: Daniel Giansiracusa, Jarrod Harbrow, Will Minson Callan Ward
There is obviously more to winning the game than how the teams line up but, if the Bulldogs can manufacture the right match-ups, it’s going to be a major factor.
Aker is a monty to play well in his 300th game and will give David Johnson a merry dance while Josh Hill and Shaun Higgins' ability to get free early and kick goals will make Joel Corey and Andrew Mackie more accountable and stem their run from defence.
Brad Johnson's experience and footy smarts could cause Harry Taylor headaches by pushing right up the ground (where Harry is out of his comfort zone), turning him around and leading into the space behind him.
Throw in Giansiracusa, Harbrow and Minson for a few eight-minute stints when the Cats defenders look like they are gasping for air and they too could cause some damage.
I’m really happy with my match-ups down back with Lake being the stand-out winner. With Mooney out, I don’t thing Hawkins is up to playing the key leading forward just yet, so Lake could take control of this contest and add some run out of defence.
Lindsay Gilbee could be dragged into the midfield by Kelly, which is a positive because when he gets his hands on it he will be close enough to hit someone inside 50.
Chapman and Steve Johnson have been running defenders ragged but are due for an off night and Boyd and Morris are as good as any shut-down backmen going around.
As is the case in most games, the midfield battle is crucial for the Dogs. A mixture of negating their opponent, winning their share of the ball, using it effectively and protecting the centre corridor (with the help of their forwards pushing up) is paramount.
That way the Cats' ball-users can’t waltz through the back of the square and kick to a leading forward.
They should force them to the boundary and make them kick the ball up the line.
Picken will play a shut-down role on Bartel and shouldn't worry about getting the ball himself. He needs to put all his time into keeping Bartel to 15 possessions, in a similar job to his one on Brent Harvey earlier this year.
Daniel Cross is as good as anyone at stoppages but will have to be at his best to quell Ablett's dominance in this area.
Cooney has to have too much pace for Ling and will need his half-forwards to push up to the midfield stoppages and block him, so that he can get away and give some drive.
Griffen going head-to-head with Selwood is a beauty, even though Selwood will have the edge at the stoppages. Griffen may be able to exploit him going forward with his pace and ability to run, carry and break the lines.
Hudson and Minson can break even with Blake and Mumford in the hit-outs but can exploit their ability to get around the ground and gather possessions.
Eagleton is critical to the Dogs' success. Enright may sit on him but he has to break away from that and get 10 quality balls inside 50.
I've never had a bet on football but I think it might be time to start. I’ve just convinced myself that the Bulldogs are home: by under 12-and-a-half points.
The views in this article are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.
