JUST five sides have finished in the top four in the past three seasons.
Geelong, St Kilda and Western Bulldogs have had a mortgage on three of those positions during that time, while Collingwood has finished there for the past two seasons and Hawthorn did in its 2008 premiership year.
However, this season the make-up of the top-four looks set for an overhaul. Yes, the Magpies and Cats are both undefeated in 2011 and look near certainties to remain near the top of the AFL heap.
However, Hawthorn, the Bulldogs and particularly the battle-weary Saints appear vulnerable to the challenges of teams such as Carlton and Essendon.
Too often when Carlton's finals credentials are raised the discussion begins and ends with one name, Chris Judd.
Just as many said No Wayne Carey, no North Melbourne in the 1990s, many think Carlton's top-four claims this year will rise and fall on the fitness and form of the chrome-domed No.5.
However, the Herald Sun offered an alternative explanation of the Blues' promising start to 2011, which has them fourth on the ladder ahead of Monday night's showdown with St Kilda.
In his weekly Stats Confidential column, Mark Stevens revealed Carlton has excelled this season in pressure acts, with Jeff Garlett, Andrew Walker and Chris Judd all in the AFL's top 10 for acts such as corralling, chasing and applying enough contact to the ball-carrier to markedly affect his disposal.
Stevens said pressure acts had a more direct correlation to a team's performance than tackle counts. The sides that had led pressure act and contested possession counts in a quarter in 2011 had won 90 per cent of those terms, he said.
Significantly, Stevens said Carlton was ranked second in the League in combined pressure act and contested possession statistics this season, having led these counts in 13 quarters and outscored their opponents in 12 of those terms. Only reigning premier Collingwood has lead these counts in more quarters, 14, for 12 quarters won.
So if Carlton underlines its top-four claims with a win against St Kilda on Monday night, its credentials will run deeper than one man, no matter how good Judd is.
Voss needs help: Schwass
Since taking the Brisbane Lions back to the finals in his first season in charge, Michael Voss' coaching honeymoon has hit tough times. But Saturday night's loss to AFL new boys Gold Coast was a new low.
In a game where Voss' team would have been desperate to brush the Suns aside like an older brother bullies an upstart sibling, it was outclassed by a team coming off a 139-point loss to Essendon.
It left the Lions winless and on the bottom of the ladder.
Admittedly, they have been competitive in most of their six losses. They are also rebuilding their side around a talented bunch of youngsters like Daniel Rich, Tom Rockliff and Jack Redden, which will take time.
However, more and more questions are being asked about whether Voss is the right man to oversee that rebuilding process.
The Herald Sun reports North Melbourne premiership player Wayne Schwass and former Collingwood and St Kilda defender Shane Wakelin both said Voss, who came into the Lions' top job without completing an apprenticeship as an assistant coach, has yet to prove himself as a AFL coach.
Schwass said the Lions should support Voss by appointing an experienced senior or assistant coach to work alongside him, in an arrangement much like that where former Geelong coach Mark Thompson sits alongside James Hird at Essendon.
Like Voss, Hird was drafted into the Bombers' senior job this season without a stint as an assistant coach.
Putting Hird's impressive start to his coaching career to one side - it's only seven games' old - the arrangement makes a lot of sense.
Hird is sure to confront situations this year that are foreign to him and for which he is unprepared. That's when he can lean on Thompson, who has seen everything that coaching can throw at you.
Media Watch suspects the Lions will back Voss, whose current contract expires at the end of this season, for the long haul. But, in doing so, they should make sure he has all the support he needs.
Following the leader
St Kilda midfielder David Armitage has had a tough time establishing a regular senior spot with the Saints since being drafted with the No.9 pick in the 2006 NAB AFL Draft.
Injury and the stellar St Kilda midfield have conspired against the tough and in-and-under player - until this season.
Ironically, a season-ending knee injury to the player who has become his mentor, Lenny Hayes, has opened the way for Armitage to become an integral part of the Saints' midfield this season.
Armitage told the Herald Sun Hayes had now shifted his attention to helping the 22-year-old Queenslander fill the void his absence has left.
Armitage told the tabloid he speaks to Hayes every day before and after training, about likely upcoming opponents and how to play on them.
"If I can be half the player Lenny is I'd be going all right," Armitage said.
"I am learning so much from him, but I have a lot of things to work on."
With Hayes in his corner, Armitage could not hope for a better teacher.
It's a telling insight to Hayes' leadership that he continues to play a part in St Kilda's attempts to resurrect its season when his knee won't allow him to do so on the field.
In short
Former Port Adelaide midfield star Josh Francou says Chad Cornes must be recalled for round eight to give the Power's midfield a physical presence, The Advertiser reports.
Sydney Swans midfielder Ryan O'Keefe said his disappointing performance against Carlton skipper Chris Judd in round six had been the impetus behind his starring role in the Swans' eight-point win against Western Bulldogs on Saturday, the Daily Telegraph reports.
St Kilda forward Arryn Siposs will make his AFL debut against Carlton on Monday night but just 15 months ago he could not make it into the Dandenong Stingrays' TAC Cup squad, the Herald Sun reports.
Sydney Swans ruckman Mark Seaby does not blame the AFL's new substitute rule for his extended absence from the Swans' team, The Sydney Morning Herald reports. Seaby was dropped from the Swans' team after struggling to make an impact in the substitute's rule in round one, and says he will have to improve his form and forward-line play to earn a recall.
The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL
