FOR THE first time since the introduction of the top eight in 1994 at least one team is likely to notch 13 home and away wins and miss the finals.
Excluding Essendon's ban from the 2013 finals after a 14-win season, the last time a team with more than 12 wins missed the finals was 1992, when Carlton finished outside that era's top six despite recording 14 victories.
This season, however, the finals race is so tight the top 12 teams will finish with win-loss records that would have earned them a finals berth in many of the past 24 seasons.
Ladder-leader Richmond and second-placed West Coast have already recorded 15 and 14 wins respectively and are assured of finals spots.
Things become a lot murkier after that, with the teams sitting third to 10th after round 20 all well placed to notch at least 13 wins, while 11th-placed Essendon and Adelaide (12th) can also do so if they win all three of their remaining home and away matches.
THE RUN HOME Where will your side finish?
Even if we rule out Essendon, whose final two games are against Richmond and Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval), and Adelaide, which will start as underdog against Greater Western Sydney (UNSW Canberra Oval) this Saturday night, we're left with eight likely 13-win teams fighting for six finals spots.
The teams third to eighth – GWS, Melbourne, Hawthorn, Collingwood, Port Adelaide and Sydney – all need just one more victory to record win number 13.
Hawthorn and Collingwood should have few problems doing this given both face bottom-four teams in the run home, while the Giants, Melbourne and Port Adelaide have tough fixtures but two remaining home games each to cash in on.
The Swans face the toughest assignment of the top-eight teams. After away encounters against Melbourne and the Giants, they host Hawthorn at the SCG in round 23. Their fighting win over Collingwood last Saturday night, however, suggests they remain up for the fight.
If any of these teams slip up, ninth-placed Geelong and North Melbourne (10th), who both sit one game outside the eight, are waiting to pounce.
The Cats face a stern test against bitter foe Hawthorn at the MCG this Saturday, but appear a lock to reach 13 wins, with their final two games at their GMHBA Stadium fortress against struggling Fremantle and Gold Coast teams.
North Melbourne will also be favoured to reach 52 premiership points with wins over the Western Bulldogs in round 21 and St Kilda in round 23.
But even if they do, the Kangaroos' clash against Adelaide at Adelaide Oval in round 22 could decide their season given that, Sydney aside, their percentage is the worst of the teams sitting in the third to 10th logjam.
At 110.1, North's percentage is almost nine points lower than the Cats, but the Swans (109.6) and Port (114.9) are close enough to overhaul if results fall the Roos' way.
Things are so tight the only thing certain is that the next three weeks will be compelling viewing.
Top-eight finals system (1994 -)
- The most wins recorded by a team finishing outside the top eight is 12: Richmond (1994 and 1998), Hawthorn (2003), St Kilda (2012 and 2016), Port Adelaide (2015) and Melbourne (2017)
- In 10 of the past 24 seasons, teams have made the finals with fewer than 12 wins
- The fewest wins recorded by a finalist is 10: Brisbane (1995)
- Two other finalists finished with 10 wins and a draw: Brisbane (1997) and Essendon (2009)
- The most wins recorded by a team finishing eighth is 14: North Melbourne (2008)
- The fewest wins recorded by a team finishing ninth is nine: Melbourne (1995) and Hawthorn (2009)
