FREMANTLE'S bombshell decision to quit pursuing star Melbourne forward Jesse Hogan appears to be an act of brinkmanship from new football boss Peter Bell.
There is still plenty to play out behind the scenes, and it is understood talks will resume early next week before Wednesday night's NAB AFL Trade Period deadline.
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But if the Dockers fail to negotiate a fair deal for Hogan, who is finally willing to return to Perth, it would be a stunning call for a team that has courted the boom 23-year-old for years and in coach Ross Lyon's words is "crying out for a big, strong man" inside 50.
That is, unless Freo's medical assessment of Hogan's navicular stress fracture in his right kicking foot has uncovered some concerns, as part of the "due diligence" Bell referred to in a statement as the Dockers called off their chase.
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As it stands, Fremantle is unwilling to meet Melbourne's asking price, believed to be two first-round picks.
The Dockers reportedly offered up selection No.11 – which they received from Port Adelaide in a shrewd pick swap that was worth doing regardless of the Hogan chase – and a future second-round selection.
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That was never going to be enough for the 2015 Rising Star winner.
The Demons are eyeing a high-end pick to satisfy Gold Coast for captain Steven May, who they also can't afford to bring in without offloading Hogan first.
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With star Freo midfielder Lachie Neale disgruntled and determined to get to Brisbane, and the Lions offering pick No.5, the pieces were seemingly falling into place.
Negotiating a trade with pick No.5 as the starting point looks about right for a player of Hogan's prodigious and proven talent.
But, for now at least, the Dockers are prioritising keeping Neale, with Bell eager for the "feather in my cap" of convincing the dual Doig medallist to recommit.
It would be a brave - and headscratching - strategy to retain a player who clearly wants out while long-coveted Hogan is there for the taking after turning his back on Freo's overtures and re-signing at Melbourne two years ago.
At his best, Hogan is an elite power forward, something the Dockers have lacked since 700-goal club legend Matthew Pavlich's decline and retirement at the end of 2016.
Hogan booted 44 majors in a brilliant debut campaign, another 41 in 2016 and 47 in 20 games this year.
He also added another string to his bow in 2018, spending more time in the midfield and having a career-high 26 disposals against North Melbourne.
Despite personal trauma last season when his father Tony passed away from a long cancer battle and Hogan needed a testicular cancer tumour removed, he still kicked 20 goals in 10 games.
His track record shows a stark comparison to Freo's leading goalkickers from the past two seasons – with Michael Walters booting just 22 this year and Cam McCarthy returning only 25 in 2017.
Hogan averages 2.14 goals per game – not far off West Coast's gun spearhead Josh Kennedy (2.54) – and has returned seven bags of five goals or more in his 71-match career to date.
The 195cm and 100kg Claremont product is exactly what the Dockers need to boost their firepower after ranking bottom three for scoring in the past three years.
Certainly, tall forward Matt Taberner showed signs before breaking his foot this year, Brennan Cox has raw ability, and Rory Lobb's impending acquisition from the Giants will take some pressure off McCarthy, who has underwhelmed to say the least in two seasons in purple.
But Hogan is a match-winning spearhead who Fremantle could build a forward line around for the best part of a decade.
Given the long list of missed trade targets – including Travis Cloke, Cale Hooker, Mitch Clark and Jeremy McGovern – this seemed the perfect time for Freo to pounce.
The Dockers might know more than they are letting on, and maybe they can call Melbourne's bluff to lower the asking price.
Perhaps Freo will bow and trade Neale to bring in an elite young tall such as Max or Ben King via the draft, believing Hogan could be secured at the end of 2019 for less.
But that policy could force Lyon's rebuilding side a step backwards ahead of a season when there will be mounting pressure to show progress after three years outside the top eight.
And that might just open the door for bitter rival West Coast to lure Hogan at the end of next year as the Eagles hunt battle-scarred Kennedy's long-term replacement.
It is an unbearable thought for Freo fans, but five days until deadline is an eternity in the Trade Period and the Hogan pursuit isn't over yet.
