SUMMARY
These clubs met in a spiteful clash in round two, which should ensure the temperature gauge is at boiling point on Sunday with plenty of physical clashes. The previous encounter against Melbourne established a worrying trend for Carlton which has happened in subsequent meetings, hitting the front late in games before being overrun by teams with deeper midfields. Key forward Jesse Hogan, one of the key protagonists in round two, and Jeff Garlett look set to return for Melbourne, but its midfield has been ravaged by injury and the absence of co-captains Nathan Jones and Jack Viney, as well as Jack Watts and Christian Salem, will be difficult to cover. The clash between last year's All Australian ruckman Max Gawn and heir apparent Matthew Kreuzer looms as so important while Patrick Cripps, Bryce Gibbs and Marc Murphy should take advantage of the depleted Melbourne midfield.
WHERE AND WHEN: MCG, Sunday, July 9, 3.20pm AEST
TV AND RADIO: Click here for broadcast guide
PAST FIVE TIMES
R2, 2017, Melbourne 13.8 (86) d Carlton 9.10 (64) at the MCG
R22, 2016, Carlton 11.12 (78) d Melbourne 7.16 (58) at the MCG
R21, 2015, Carlton 12.6 (78) d Melbourne 7.13 (55) at the MCG
R4, 2014, Melbourne 12.9 (81) d Carlton 7.16 (58) at the MCG
R6, 2013, Carlton 18.13 (121) d Melbourne 8.12 (60) at the MCG
THE SIX POINTS
1. Carlton led by three points at three-quarter time in round two before the Demons kicked six goals to two in the final term. Melbourne had more disposals (422-358) and took 133 marks but lost the inside 50s.
2. There is a big difference in styles between the clubs. Melbourne is ranked second for handballs and the Blues are 18th, while Carlton is first for kicks and the Demons eighth.
3. Carlton has won seven of its past nine contests against Melbourne since 2010. The Demons have not won consecutive clashes against the Blues since 2007.
4. Carlton is the worst clearance team in 2017, averaging only 33.9. In contrast Melbourne has been strong in this part of the game, ranked fifth with an average of 38.3.
5. This is the 102nd contest between the clubs at the MCG, with Carlton holding a narrow advantage of 51 wins to 50. The clubs last played each other at a different venue in 2009 at Etihad Stadium.
6. Sam Docherty's rise to stardom this season is reflected in the Schick AFL Player Ratings. The courageous Blue started the season as the 16th-ranked small-medium defender, but has leapt to fourth (overall No. 61) with 438.2 points after another fine performance last Saturday against Adelaide.
IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR … Patrick Cripps and Jordan Lewis
In only his second game for his new club earlier this season, Lewis received a three-match suspension for striking the star Blue, who suffered a hairline fracture of the jaw. This will add spice to an interesting contest and Lewis is set to cop plenty of flak on and off the field.
PREDICTION: Carlton by 20 points
