IN AFL Fantasy, a player who 'breaks out' takes their game to a level that they have never reached before. They do this by raising their middling average to new heights. Last year, Lachie Hunter took his game to uncharted waters for the first time by improving his average from 71 to 103.
Finding these hidden gems can help set you up for a stunning year in AFL Fantasy Classic, but in the Draft format, it’ll give you the ultimate advantage against your mates in the final rounds of selection.
Fantasy form watch: JLT round one
So in 2017, who are the break-out contenders that might put your side in the prime position for premiership glory?
Tom Boyd (RUC/FWD, $347,000) – After scoring 80, 79 and then a career-high 96 in last year’s Grand Final, has the real Tom Boyd finally stepped up? With those scores in the finals not counting towards his end of season average, Boyd finished the year at an average of just 57. The former No.1 draft pick can improve on that this year, but by how much?
Ryan Clarke (FWD/MID, $293,000) – With only 1.7 per cent ownership, Clarke will benefit from the clean-out at the Kangaroos. He clocked up just six games last year an average of 55 and played the majority of his football in the VFL where he played 11 games at an average of 96 from 25 disposals. He’s a ball winner and in the JLT opening game against Sydney he had 15 possessions in just 65 per cent game time.
Jacob Hopper (FWD/MID, $391,000) – With a score of 97 on debut in round eight last year, many thought Hopper was going to be the next big thing, before his year went south. He finished the season with an average of 69 after struggling with minor injuries and the Giants' overloaded midfield. He played six games in the NEAFL at an average of 124 and if this high draft pick can crack this talented 22, he’ll be one to watch.
Isaac Heeney (FWD, $442,000) – Heeney is the favourite of many Fantasy coaches to be the breakout player of 2017. He is currently owned by 39 per cent of coaches who are backing him in to boost his average of 73 well into the 90s.
Nathan Hrovat (FWD/MID, $380,000) – After playing just four games last year for the Bulldogs for scores of 63, 94, 78 and 72, Hrovat received a discount on his price, which now places him at an average of just 63. His switch to the Kangaroos should be a positive one that should see him become a regular in their best 22. His first JLT game for the Roos showed the promise of things to come.
Ben Keays (FWD, $288,000) – After sitting forward for the majority of his 16 games at the Lions last season, Keays may get more time up the ground with his new coach Chris Fagan. He only averaged 48 under Justin Leppitsch, and at his price the only way is up.
Josh Kelly (MID, $542,000) – It can be argued that Kelly broke out in 2016 when he lifted his average from 73 to 90. However, in the opening JLT game, Kelly demonstrated that last year he was just warming up. His 128 points on the weekend was sensational and if he can push his average over 105, he’ll potentially break out again.
Riley Knight (FWD, $241,000) – There has been much talk about who will replace the departing Jarryd Lyons at Adelaide and if Knight gets the nod, he’ll certainly boost his average by a significant margin.
Toby Nankervis (RUC/FWD, $365,000) – Nankervis found the going very tough at Sydney where he only managed 11 games in his first two years of senior football. He averaged 66 last year with limited opportunities, and now finds himself at Richmond chasing the role as the club’s No.1 ruckman.
Billie Smedts (FWD/MID, $259,000) – A new club means more opportunity for Smedts and maybe it's his time to shine at Carlton. He averaged 87 in the VFL last year where he finished the season with 20 and 35 possessions in his last two games.
Clay Smith (FWD, $392,000) – Last year was Smith’s best Fantasy season to date. Although he only averaged 67 from nine games, the signs were very positive during the finals where he averaged 87. If he can pick up from where he left off, he’s a massive breakout contender in your forward line.
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Jack Steele (FWD/MID, $432,000) – Steele is another player seeking new opportunities after only managing 10 games last year at the Giants for an average of 72. However, it was his amazing average of 156 in the NEAFL that blew the Fantasy community away. From his 10 games, he averaged 36 disposals, eight marks and eight tackles and if he can replicate even a snippet of that, he’s in for a big year at St Kilda.
Jackson Thurlow (DEF, $282,000) – Thurlow has never averaged more than 67 in a season but on the back of Corey Enright’s retirement, he should step up and take his game to a new level. After a slow start in his first JLT Community Series game, Thurlow scored 48 of his 68 points in the second half against the Hawks. Not bad for someone who missed the entire 2016 season with a serious knee injury.
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