THE COUNTDOWN is on for Gold Coast, with a decision needed in the next 12 weeks on whether uncontracted coach Rodney Eade is the right man to lead their club into 2018.
The uncertainty at the Suns looms large over the coaching landscape in the second half of the season in a market that is flush with untried and ambitious coaches, but short on experienced alternatives.
It is a market that will factor into Gold Coast's decision-making as they consider an extension for Eade, who confronted a cultural mess in 2015 and an injury crisis in 2016 that led to ladder finishes of 16th and 15th.
Everyone knows Eade can coach, with his CV including nine finals appearances in 16 seasons. But he will be up against a new breed of coach when the Suns decide if he is the man to take a young list forward.
That new breed resides in the AFL's elite Level Four course, which contains a growing pool of senior coaching aspirants who are benefiting from high-level training and mentoring specific to one of the most demanding jobs in the game.
Nineteen coaches have either completed or are in the process of completing the program – which is not yet mandatory for senior applicants – with Simon Goodwin (Melbourne) and Brendon Bolton (Carlton) the first two 'students' to land senior jobs.
Three of the last four senior coach appointments have come from outside the Level Four group, however, with the appointments of Don Pyke (Adelaide), John Worsfold (Essendon) and Chris Fagan (Brisbane Lions).
The current market suggests that trend will turn.
The two standout candidates from the Level Four course are John Barker (Carlton) and Stuart Dew (Sydney), who were members of the first intake and completed the course late last year.
Barker ran second to Fagan for the Brisbane Lions position, while Dew made a decision last year to remain with the Swans and not put his hand up for any coaching vacancies.
St Kilda assistant Adam Kingsley is another highly-rated coach among the Level Four group, with Matthew Nicks (Port Adelaide), Blake Caracella (Richmond), Robert Harvey (Collingwood) and Simon Lloyd (Geelong) other graduates.
Ten coaches are still completing the course, including Peter Sumich, who left the AFL system last year but still has senior coaching ambitions, and Lions applicant Brett Montgomery, who also stepped away from the elite level in 2017.
Rounding out the Level Four class is Justin Longmuir (West Coast) and Jade Rawlings (Melbourne) from last year's intake, and 2017 additions Scott Burns (Collingwood), Brett Kirk (Sydney), Brendon Lade (Port Adelaide), Leigh Tudor (North Melbourne), Dean Solomon (Gold Coast) and Steven King (Western Bulldogs).
Burns, who has been a serious contender for a number of senior positions in recent seasons, is seen as the most likely of the 2016 and 2017 intakes to make the step up when the next vacancy emerges.
So is the Level Four course the be-all and end-all for prospective senior coaches? Club CEOs support the program, but they and their boards are clearly willing to look outside the group when making an appointment.
"The Level Four is a terrific preparation and development for those that are in it," one club CEO told AFL.com.au.
"I sometimes think the will to be immersed in it and take it on counts for as much as anything. It's certainly a positive."
If a club decides it needs an experienced coach this year, the pool is headed by the revered but seemingly unattainable Paul Roos, who has publicly said he has no plans of returning to coaching in 2018.
Former Carlton coach Brett Ratten remains open to another stint as a senior coach after five years with Hawthorn, while Matthew Knights' CV has developed since he was Essendon coach from 2008-10.
The first 17 names a club will write down when searching for a new senior coach are those in the hot seat at rival clubs, but many will quickly be crossed out before an approach is even made.
There has been a sense this season that North Melbourne coach Brad Scott could become available at the end of the year, despite his contract for 2018.
That curveball came about in April after Scott commented on Channel Nine that he was the right coach for North "right at the moment", but his position would be analysed at the end of the year.
Pressed on those comments this week, the coach told Fox Footy: "If the football club really thinks that I'm the best person to coach the club, then that's where I'll be".
His position is clear – he will not walk away from the Kangaroos if they want him.
How the dominoes fall will not be clear for some time, but Gold Coast's senior coaching chair is not the only one yet to be filled for 2018 as Collingwood and Nathan Buckley let 2017 play out.
