FOOTBALL'S biggest match-within-a-match happens on Sunday when Geelong plays Richmond at the MCG.
 
The two Brownlow favourites, Patrick Dangerfield and Dusty Martin, will go head-to-head in a duel that will provide an interesting sub-plot on the night of the count.
 
An analysis of the numbers suggests Dangerfield already has the ferocious Tiger covered in 2016 however, with Dusty likely to be rattling home when the count is all but decided.
 
It's not an assessment the humble Martin is likely to disagree with, given he told AFL.com.au last week he thought the Brownlow was as good as hanging around Dangerfield's neck.

Dangerfield has kicked 21 goals so far in 2016, about average for the Geelong star, given it is the seventh season he has topped 20 goals. 

By contrast Martin has kicked just nine goals in 19 games this season, only the second time in his seven seasons he has kicked fewer than 20 goals.
 
Champion Data statistics puts both players in the elite class this season for disposals, kicks, metres gained, inside 50 and contested possessions.

Dangerfield is on his own in the elite category for handballs, marks, ground ball gets and clearances while Martin only has Dangerfield covered in uncontested possessions.

Patrick Dangerfield has been flying this season. Picture: Daniel Carson


Further analysis shows that both players are almost guaranteed to get Brownlow votes when they collect 30 or more disposals in a game.

That suggests – not that this is news – that both players will poll well, as they have each collected 30 disposals plus in 11 games this season.
 
Nine of Martin's 30 plus games have occurred since round nine while nine of Dangerfield's 30 plus games have occurred since round eight.
 
In other words they have been motoring.

Richmond coach Damien Hardwick has given a clear indication the Martin and Dangerfield show will start early when the teams clash on Sunday afternoon.

"We'll let those guys go head-to-head at the start and then we might look at something if Danger gets out of control," Hardwick said on Thursday.

"But that's probably happened with every game with Danger, hasn't it?

"He's such a quality competitor, he's one of those guys who is very hard to tag, he wins contested ball inside the contest and then also post-clearance as well."

Dustin Martin and Patrick Dangerfield go head-to-head in 2011. Picture: AFL Photos


In the years before he joined Geelong, the 26-year-old Dangerfield polled Brownlow votes in 16 of the 19 games in which he racked up 30 or more touches (84 per cent).
 
That's some record given he has polled votes in 40 of his 128 home and away matches with Adelaide (31.25 per cent).
 
Martin has polled in 13 of the 20 games in which he has had 30 or more disposals (65 per cent) and polled Brownlow votes in 39 of his 128 games (30 per cent).
 
Dangerfield also has image on his side, being the AFL's version of the Beatles while Martin gives off more of a Rolling Stones vibe.
 
That doesn't mean anything to fans who admire and respect the way both players play but Dangerfield gains more love from umpires than Martin if the free kick count is your only guide.
 
The 26-year-old Cat has earned 37 free kicks and given away 22 this season while the 25-year-old Tiger has earned just 15 and given away 39.

Dusty showing his strength against Liam Picken in round 16. Picture: Adam Trafford


It's not to say Martin won't get votes, he polled 21 votes last season after polling 13 and 16 votes in the previous two years.
 
Dangerfield however is in a different category having polled more than 20 votes in each of his past four seasons.
 
The Cats' star has being awarded three votes for best on ground on 22 occasions whereas Martin has been named best on ground just three times.
 
Being on winning team will help as Martin has never being given the three votes in a losing team, having polled votes in 10 games where he has been on the losing team and 29 on the winning team.

And there is one other factor too that might count against Martin.
 
Geelong is the only opponent the Tigers star has not polled a Brownlow vote against at this stage in his career, which is no surprise because the Tigers' record against the Cats is not good.
 
So it looks like Dangerfield's at this stage but Martin could claim a moral victory on Sunday.
 
It will be worth watching.

Stats supplied by Champion Data
Bold = Elite Category