• Danger's No.1 ... but the coaches are picking another first
• You can talk to a rival club but ...

ALTHOUGH half the AFL coaches believe the Sydney Swans will win this year's premiership, almost all of them think a team outside the top four could also pinch the 2016 flag.

In another surprise, some 83.3 per cent of coaches (15 of 18) believed Essendon could make the finals in 2017. The undermanned Bombers have won just once this season, but will be boosted next year when the bulk of their 12 suspended players are expected to return.

In the annual AFL Media coaches' survey, about 53 per cent of the leading men who voted in the premiership category (17 of 18) predicted the Swans to triumph this season. The bulk of the nine coaches who picked Sydney did so despite Hawthorn having a two-game lead at the top of the ladder at the time they lodged their votes.

Some 23.5 per cent (four of 17) picked the Hawks to collect their fourth straight flag, while about 12 per cent (two of 17) selected Adelaide. West Coast and the Western Bulldogs also received nods.

Almost 89 per cent of coaches (16 of 18) suggested a team finishing fifth to eighth was capable of winning the premiership. Only one team (the Crows, in 1998) have managed that feat since the top eight was introduced in 1994. 

One-third of the coaches (six of 18) listed Fremantle as the team that had most surprised them, with Adelaide (four of 18) and Greater Western Sydney (two of 18) also receiving votes.

The coaches pointed to the Sydney Swans (35.3 per cent, or six of 17) and West Coast (29.4 per cent, or five of 17) as the toughest teams to beat on their home grounds.

The AFL Media annual coaches' survey, facilitated by the AFL Coaches' Association, was conducted in July. All 18 senior coaches took part in the anonymous online survey, although not all 18 answered every question. 

Full results of the 30-question survey are published in the round 20 edition of the AFL Record, on sale at all venues.