1. Sydney Swans

64 points (16 wins, five losses), 145.1 per cent

The run home
Rd 23: Richmond (SCG)

If the Swans win:
- They will all but guarantee first or second place and play two finals at home, most likely at ANZ Stadium. 

If they lose:
- Could drop out of the top four entirely if Adelaide, Geelong, Hawthorn and GWS all win.

Quick take: The Tigers got them in the final round of 2014, but that was at ANZ. The Tigers had more to play for and the Swans rested a few. There will be no repeat this time. 

Predicted finish: First
Predicted final match-up: v Hawthorn, first qualifying final, ANZ Stadium

• Nine things we learned from round 22

2. Adelaide

64 (16 wins, five losses), 142.3 per cent

The run home
Rd 23: West Coast (Adelaide Oval)

If the Crows win:
- Most likely second place and two home finals. First place in the unlikely event the Swans lose or if they can pass the Swans on percentage. Third place if the Cats catch them on percentage.

If the Crows lose:
- Wins to the Hawks, Cats and Giants would drop them out of the top four. If only one of them win, the Crows would be on the road for their first final. 

Quick take: Rare piece of Friday night fixturing by the AFL with no side from Victoria playing. But given the ramifications, plenty riding on it for Geelong and Hawthorn supporters, so we'll be watching.

Predicted finish: Second
Predicted final match-up: v Geelong, second qualifying final, Adelaide Oval

3. Geelong

64 points (16 wins, five losses), 137.8 per cent  

The run home
Rd 23: Melbourne (Simonds Stadium)

If the Cats win:
- They most likely stay third and play away an away qualifying final. A stumble by the Swans or the Crows and they move to second and will host an opening final at the MCG. 

If they lose:
- Drop to fifth if the Giants and Hawks win, fourth if only one of them wins. 

Quick take: Melbourne surprised Geelong with a stunning win at Simonds Stadium last year, but the Cats are a better side with plenty of incentive to win. They won't fear the Crows in a qualifying final at Adelaide Oval, having already beaten them twice this year.

Predicted finish: Third
Predicted final match-up: v Adelaide, second qualifying final, Adelaide Oval

• Around the state leagues: Who fired for your club's twos?

4. Hawthorn

64 points (16 wins, five losses) 119.7 per cent

The run home
Rd 23: Collingwood (MCG)

If the Hawks win:
- They book the double chance once and for all. They'll likely play their first final interstate unless the Swans or Crows stumble.

If they lose:
- They could drop as low as seventh if the Dogs, Eagles and Giants all win.

Quick take: The Hawks have won their last eight against the Pies with an average winning margin of 37 points. They'll be happier back at their beloved MCG this week than the narrow Domain Stadium. 

Predicted finish: Fourth
Predicted final match-up: v Sydney Swans, first qualifying final, ANZ Stadium

5. Greater Western Sydney

60 points (15 wins, six losses), 142.5 per cent

The run home
Rd 23: North Melbourne (Etihad Stadium)

If the Giants win:
- A home elimination final and could climb back into the top four if any of the sides above them lose.

If the Giants lose:
- Could drop to seventh if the Dogs and Eagles win next week. 

Quick take: If West Coast loses and the Hawks beat Collingwood there is every chance the Giants will know ahead of the North game on Saturday night that a rematch looms in the first week of the finals, this time in Sydney.

Predicted finish: Fifth
Predicted final match-up: v North Melbourne, first elimination final, Spotless Stadium

• Forecast the road to the flag with the AFL Ladder and Finals Predictor 

6. West Coast

60 points (15 wins, six losses), 129.5 per cent

The run home
Rd 23: Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)

If the Eagles win:
- They'll move to fifth or stay sixth and get a home final if other results go to plan. They could sneak fourth spot if the Hawks are upset by Collingwood.

If they lose:
- Likely to finish seventh and play their elimination final on the road.

Quick take: The Eagles have won seven from eight after the bye, but the Crows away – without Nic Naitanui – is their biggest test by far. Win it and they will have truly earned their home final.

Predicted finish: Seventh
Predicted final match-up: v Western Bulldogs, second elimination final, MCG

• After the siren: How will the Eagles and Hawks cope?

7. Western Bulldogs

60 points (15 wins, six losses), 117.4 per cent 

The run home
Rd 23: Fremantle (Domain Stadium) 

If the Dogs win:
- To get a home elimination final, they need one of the Eagles or Giants to lose. 

If they lose:
- They're on the road for their elimination final, either to Domain Stadium to play West Coast or Spotless Stadium against the Giants. 

Quick take: Did what they had to do against the Bombers, but now might be without Easton Wood. Not ideal to be ending the home and away season in Perth but Freo is so down on form that not even Matthew Pavlich's farewell game should pose an obstacle. They might be back there a fortnight later if they don't take care of business.

Predicted finish: Sixth
Predicted final match-up: v West Coast, second elimination final, MCG

8. North Melbourne

48 points (12 wins, nine losses), 107.6 per cent

The run home
Rd 23: GWS (Etihad Stadium)

If the Kangaroos win:
- Win or lose, they start the finals in eighth place.

If they lose:
- As above.

Quick take: Winner of just three games since their flying 9-0 start to the season, the Kangas will desperate to enter the finals on a winning note. There's plenty to play for against the Giants even though their ladder position can't change.

Predicted finish: Eighth
Predicted final match-up: v GWS, first elimination final, Spotless Stadium

9. St Kilda

44 points (11 wins, 10 losses) 92.5 per cent

The run home
Rd 23: Brisbane Lions (Etihad Stadium)

If the Saints win
- It will need to be by close to 25 goals and the Kangaroos lose by the same margin in order to leapfrog them into the eight.

If they lose
- Curtains for 2016. Finally.

Quick take: A 12-10 finish should spark unbridled optimism about 2017.