COULD THE mega broadcast rights deal signed on Tuesday see the AFL's first $2 million man emerge before 2022?
'Good question', 'Haven't thought about it in detail', and 'Probably' were three of the responses from AFL list managers when asked on Wednesday.
It was back in 2007 when a player first received $1 million for a season's work, and since 2011 at least one star each season has cracked that figure.
Now momentum is building towards $2 million a season in both the AFL and the NRL, with Fairfax's Adrian Proszenko posing the same question just weeks ago after the NRL deal was signed.
Players don't have first rights on broadcast money: McLachlan
While AFL.com.au understands clubs and agents had been working on an increase in player payments of between three and six per cent for contracts that extend beyond 2016, Tuesday's $2.5 billion dollar broadcast deal prompted one list manager to suggest a 10 per cent increase per annum was more likely.
If player payments per club did grow at that rate, they would reach close to $18 million per club per year by 2022, up significantly from this year's Total Player Payments cap at $10.36 million per club per year.
If that happened, one player commanding $2 million per season in 2022 would take home 11 per cent of the total player payments cap, a percentage not unheard of during this current collective bargaining period.
At the more conservative end of the projected increase in total player payments, a $2 million per year player would more likely come about if a club decided to back or front end their star player's salary, as total player payments would hit close to $14 million per year.
There were unconfirmed reports at the time that Gold Coast signed Gary Ablett that his contract included a year where he earned $2 million, the payment heavily loaded while the Suns' expenditure on other talent was minimised.
The Sydney Swans will be reportedly paying Lance Franklin $1.4 million a year during the course of this current rights agreement with his contract at the club lasting until 2022.
Of course the ability to spend that amount on one player for a season has to be matched by a club's willingness to do so.
All football managers contacted made the point that any projected increase of the annual TPP remained dependent on the upcoming CBA negotiations between the AFL and the AFLPA, where the AFLPA will argue for player payments to be a percentage of revenue rather than a set amount.
Another list manager AFL.com.au contacted said that given Hawthorn's success under a model that shared the wealth rather than concentrating salaries in the hands of a few star players, meant that type of structure was more likely to be in vogue during the next era of football.
However clubs sometimes say one thing and then circumstances force them to do another.
Million-dollar club shrinks again
It's reality that the top 10 players on each AFL list now command closer to 50 per cent of the total player payments than they did previously, with clubs aware of the need to retain their stars.
Pressure will be placed on the TPP models that have served the Hawks and Cats so well for about a decade now as free agency, the possible removal of the veterans' allowance, and an increasing demand for elite talent has an impact.
Whether or not the $2 million dollar man emerges in this rights period, Tuesday's broadcast deal is good news for young stars such as the Western Bulldogs' Marcus Bontempelli, Melbourne's Jesse Hogan, Fremantle's Nat Fyfe, Gold Coast's Jaeger O'Meara, Greater Western Sydney's Dylan Shiel and Sydney Swan Luke Parker.
And it could throw Buddy back amongst the pack of the game's big earners when his time at the Swans comes to an end.
