FOR FREMANTLE, this is the worst of times and the best of times.
The Docker shocker on Sunday against Hawthorn confirmed they are in a mini-slump, even allowing for the travel and their poor recent record against the Hawks at the stadium.
But, importantly, at the end of the round the club remains a game clear on top.
That means the Dockers have time to meet the challenge of re-booting, returning to top form and qualifying in pole position for the finals.
Yet they have immediate challenges that will test Lyon's considerable coaching prowess.
More Numbers Game with Peter Ryan
The starting point is winning the ball.
Since the bye they have been ranked 11th in disposal differential and against the Hawks they recorded 122 fewer uncontested possessions, the third biggest discrepancy since Lyon began at the Dockers.
Having possession is the best defensive mechanism ever invented so they need to get that right immediately.
Against Hawthorn they got their hands on the ball first but old reliables such as Nathan Fyfe (No.1 in AFL for first touch and clearances), David Mundy (sixth, sixth) and Lachie Neale (16th, 12th) coughed it up under pressure and ended up losing the clearances 49 to 30.
The drop in kicking numbers has forced Fremantle's marking numbers to decline from an average of 93 marks a game to 70 putting each subsequent possession under pressure.
The Dockers have been ranked seventh for inside 50 differentials in the past month, a key indicator of their midfield's performance and the number of marks taken inside 50 has gradually declined too.
This is important because defenders need time to set up and have a breather behind the ball in order to keep their shape.
Given Fremantle’s quality inside its midfield it is an area it can rectify, and an area it can improve if it meets the Hawks later in the season.
Earlier, Varcoe’s brilliant tackle set up his skipper #AFLFreoPies http://t.co/qWJSLbwk9p
— AFL (@AFL) June 25, 2015
The Dockers’ transition from defence stalled too against the Hawks.
Against the Hawks the only time they managed a chain from defence to score in the first half was from a kick-in.
Although the Dockers scored from each of their five movements from the defensive 50 that made it inside 50 they did not manage to go from one end of the ground to another often enough.
It's impossible to know but their midfield might be lacking confidence in their back six and not spreading hard and wide to win the rebound. If that is the case, they need to rebuild the trust between the lines.
The absence of key defender Michael Johnson since round 10 has been significant and despite Alex Pearce's solid showing, injuries to Alex Silvagni and Zac Dawson have exacerbated the problem.
Of course injuries in defence increases the need for team defence and demonstrations of faith in each other.
Against Hawthorn that team defence was unpacked, as the Dockers created just 13 forward half intercepts, well down on their average of 21.8 a game leading into the match.
Winning the ball is hard enough against the Hawks. Winning it back is even more difficult. At last resort pressure needs to be extreme, otherwise poor old Luke McPharlin and his mates don't have a chance.
While the Dockers possession per score has steadily climbed they have also conceded an average 70.5 points a game since round 11, being the fifth ranked team in that category for that period.
Restricting the opposition is the Dockers' bread and butter so they must once again make that a priority as they reset their focus, ignoring the ongoing calls to worry about scoring.
The scoring will come once the defensive aspects tighten as they have shown they are better scorers when the basics are in place.
End-to-end Hawks continue to dominate as Breust boots his fourth! #AFLHawksFreo #ohwhatafeeling http://t.co/2usI5wvSQW
— AFL (@AFL) July 12, 2015
Hayden Ballantyne personifies the Dockers' need to become defensive animals once again.
Although he must be worried about his contribution of 10 goals in 2015 he needs to remember goals are an outcome that need to be pushed to the back of his mind.
A spark, Ballantyne remains a potential x-factor in the middle when finals arrive but his confidence will be built through defensive actions.
Lyon showed after the game he understood the two extremes that might arise because of the Hawthorn result:
"If you want to be positive; 'gee they’ve played some super footy, they’re in a bit of a rut, they’re 12-2' But if you want to be negative; 'gee they’re not scoring, they won’t score, they can’t beat anybody'," Lyon said.
But Lyon deals in reality.
That makes it more likely he will to return his team to the thoughts he had immediately after the 2013 Grand Final loss when said: "It is about the basics under pressure, dropped marks, missed targets, missed tackles, missed shots that separate quality."
Improve in the basics and the Dockers can still prevail. It's way too early to write them off.
Stats supplied by Champion Data
AN ABERRATION
Hawthorn v Fremantle round 15, 2015
Fremantle's worst uncontested possession differential under Ross Lyon:
-213 - round 23, 2013 v St Kilda
-156 - round 3, 2014 v Hawthorn
-122 - round 15, 2015 v Hawthorn
-109 - round 9, 2012 v West Coast
-106 - round 13, 2014 v Richmond
-101 - round 18, 2014 v St Kilda
Forward half intercepts
Average per round
rounds 1-14: 21.8 per game (7th)
round 15: 13 (fewest in a game this season)