POPULAR wisdom has the Cats sliding in 2015. But after a summer of aggressive recruiting and strong drafting, are they actually closer to another flag than many think? Peter Ryan investigates.
Can Geelong win the flag in 2015?
FOR Geelong to win a 10th premiership, Tom Hawkins' and Mitch Clark's strong pre-season form will need to continue for the next six months.
If the duo can become the dominant attacking force they threaten to, it might just motivate the Cats' bunch of 30-somethings for one last tilt at another flag.
It could be that simple, although football is rarely simple.
The truth is no-one knows what Geelong's youngsters will be capable of doing when they are given more responsibility, which they surely must in 2015.
Although the move of Jimmy Bartel, James Kelly and Steve Johnson into the midfield is sensible and suggests on face value a reversion to old hands, it's also an indication that balancing the transition from one era to the next is not a mathematical process.
Chris Scott acknowledged that last week when asked whether the older players needed to accept supporting rather than starring roles in 2015.
"At times we'll be calling on our experienced players to support the young ones and at other times it will be the other way round. One of the things we acknowledge from last year is maybe they shifted too far from the roles that they are very good at," Scott said.
If Geelong can use their hard bodies to create space for Mitch Duncan, George Horlin-Smith, Josh Caddy and Cam Guthrie (and the indefatigable Joel Selwood) rather than hunting the ball and leaving the team exposed defensively, the Cats might be able to put the ball inside 50 more often, and lock it in with the likes of Mathew Stokes, Nakia Cockatoo and Steven Motlop lurking dangerously up forward.
It will take time for the mix to gel but it will eventually. When it does, some of the instinctive talents on the list will be able to strut their stuff. It will make the Cats' chaotic at times but it will also make them very tough to defend.
One thing Scott is adamant about is that the present will not be sacrificed at the altar of the future with transition happening simultaneously.
"We're going to pick the 22 on Monday that we think is best equipped to beat Hawthorn. If that means we can promote young players when it is a 50/50 decision, we'll absolutely do it but we're not going to compromise the team by trying to push our older guys into less significant roles," Scott said.
The defence is old, but good. Jed Bews, Jake Kolodjashnij, Billie Smedts and Josh Cowan (if he stays fit) will be introduced gradually and there will be no room for complacency as their careers will be on the line if Father Time rears his unwelcome head.
Introducing Clark will settle Harry Taylor, who has become lighter and more mobile, in defence and also provide potential back-up for a ruck division including Dawson Simpson and Hamish McIntosh that has been, let's face it, unreliable in recent years.
The Cats will rightfully poo-poo an over-reliance on Clark but his presence could be the difference between Geelong being a good team once again or a legitimate premiership chance.
The key questions
1. Will Geelong win enough games to snatch a top four place?
Playing eight games at home helps, as Geelong is extremely hard to beat at Simonds Stadium.
However its draw is tough in 2015 with Fremantle, Gold Coast and North Melbourne coming in the first four weeks and the Sydney Swans and Adelaide unlikely to be easybeats regardless of where they meet them. Lose two of those five and the Cats are unlikely to make the top four.
Geelong has to play the Sydney Swans, Hawthorn and North Melbourne twice and has only one encounter each with Melbourne and St Kilda.
The concern is that the Cats made the top four last season on the back of seven wins by 11 points or fewer. That run of luck (or is it a strength of theirs?) in close games is unlikely to continue. Having said that, they should win enough games again to be in the mix for third to sixth.
2. Have the gaps on the list been filled?
Geelong's recruiting strategy has been brave but they won't die wondering whether they can win a flag while Joel Selwood and Tom Hawkins are in their prime.
Clark is a smart player and looks to have settled well inside 50 while Rhys Stanley is a speculation selection with the kind of upside and versatility that running tall Mark Blicavs already personifies.
Geelong has shifted its midfield mix and added Cockatoo through the NAB AFL Draft. Cockatoo's talent is evident but Darcy Lang and Cory Gregson – despite being different players – should emerge too throughout the season.
Geelong lost leg speed when Allen Christensen and Travis Varcoe departed but Jordan Murdoch is a capable senior player and Sam Blease adds pace. Christensen played just eight games in 2014 so he can be covered and it's reasonable to expect an improved performance from Motlop in 2015 given the injuries he endured last season.
The list has had some setbacks with Brad Hartman on indefinite leave, Daniel Menzel an uncertain proposition due to injury, Lincoln McCarthy out long term with a foot injury and Nathan Vardy on the comeback trail.
Those long-term absences do put pressure on those that remain healthy but pressure is something Geelong has handled better than most clubs for a long time now.
3. What is a realistic expectation of Mitch Clark?
He won't be the saviour but he could be a handy addition.
Despite his pre-season form and potential impact inside 50, the reality is that Clark played just four games in two and half years, so he will need to be managed at times to ensure he remains fresh and healthy.
It is a long season and individuals firing in the NAB Challenge often hit a wall at some stage.
It's why Rhys Stanley's presence as a developing back-up in 2015 for both Clark and the ruck division is important. He has impressed everyone at the Cats with his athleticism and strength and shapes as a ruck/forward.
The dream, but not impossible, outcome for the Cats would be 50-plus goal seasons for both its key forwards and 40 goals from Motlop.
The certainty is that the Cats now have options in the ruck, up forward and a much less predictable set-up than they've had in recent seasons.
4. Can they be more consistent in 2015?
Geelong became inconsistent within games last season and it eventually became their undoing.
They would burst out of the blocks then fall apart in the second half.
If you think that's an unfair claim to make about the most consistent team of the last 10 years, than it's time to refer to the numbers.
Geelong won just eight third quarters for the home and away season last year – with only two teams winning fewer – but was ahead at quarter-time 18 times.
It then found itself behind at quarter and half-time in both its finals and could not make up the difference. The result: a straight sets exit.
To its credit, Geelong has recognised this and worked on its fitness pre-season, long running sessions incorporating distance running to build stamina.
It has not only changed its conditioning set-up but has re-aligned its coaching structure to give the midfield a boost. The Cats need to win more groundballs and Selwood needs more support at stoppages.
Whether those changes translate into better performances late in games remains to be seen but they should.
5. Is the glass half full or half empty for the Cats?
Assessing Geelong's prospects in 2015 can depend on how sunny your outlook on life is.
Are the Cats due to fall now that the champions of this era have either retired or pushed into their 30s?
Or has the culture, recruiting and lessons passed on from senior players enabled another generation to continue the team's dominance?
Simply, it boils down to whether the veterans can maintain their level of performance and how quickly the young players can get to the level those premiership champions have displayed in the back half of their outstanding careers.
In my view. there are more unknowns about Geelong going into 2015 than in previous seasons but the upside is huge.
The club has recruited to win a flag. It's possible now that it has gained some talent in the draft that can have an immediate impact.
That is enough to keep the glass half full at this stage.
