SUMMARY
Few at the start of this season would have tipped that, after round 12, Essendon and St Kilda would have won the same number of games. But as much as Saints have improved and risen up the ladder from last position in 2014, the Bombers have dropped from their position as finalists last season to be placed among the bottom rungs of the competition. James Hird is feeling the heat (this time more for on-field matters), and that will only intensify if the Bombers drop their fifth-straight game and lose to St Kilda. The Saints will fancy their chances though, having been in the box seat to win the last time the sides met in round five before letting slip a good opportunity and losing by two points.
WHERE AND WHEN: Etihad Stadium, Sunday, July 5, 1.10pm AEST
TV AND RADIO: Click here for broadcast guide
LAST FIVE TIMES
R5, 2015, Essendon 11.16 (82) d St Kilda 11.14 (80) at Etihad Stadium
R5, 2014, St Kilda 11.15 (81) d Essendon 9.11 (65) at Etihad Stadium
R4, 2013, Essendon 19.14 (128) d St Kilda 13.13 (91) at Etihad Stadium
R15, 2012, St Kilda 21.7 (133) d Essendon 8.14 (62) at Etihad Stadium
R3, 2011, Essendon 21.10 (136) d St Kilda 12.12 (84) at Etihad Stadium
THE SIX POINTS
1. Despite losing to the Bombers earlier this season the Saints had more disposals, took more marks, laid more tackles, had more hit-outs, and had the leading ball winner (David Armitage, 35) and the leading goalkicker (Josh Bruce with five).
2. Essendon and St Kilda have clashed 209 times and the Bombers hold a big advantage, winning 140 games to 65. There's been four draws.
3. The Bombers are ranked 16th for points a game with 73 this year, but they have also struggled to kick straight, ranked 17th for accuracy at 47.2 per cent.
4. These teams are two of the worst centre clearance teams in 2015, with St Kilda averaging 11 a game and the Bombers ranked last at 10.5 a game.
5. Hird's Bombers are the third-ranked team for disposals a game (averaging 382 a game) but are ranked fifth for disposal efficiency.
6. Jack Newnes' strong form has been reflected in the Official AFL Player Ratings. The Saints midfielder ended last year ranked as the 335th player in the competition, but has jumped more than 100 spots this season and now sits as the 227th player.
IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR …
Michael Hurley. In last year's loss to St Kilda, Hurley was beaten by Saints skipper Nick Riewoldt, who kicked five goals in a match-winning display. Riewoldt didn't play when the teams played in round five, but if Hurley can hold him this time around the Bombers' chances will be significantly boosted.
PREDICTION: St Kilda by 10 points
