SUMMARY
Collingwood has had a mortgage on Queen's Birthday contests against Melbourne, with the Demons' last win on the public holiday Monday coming in round 11, 2007. However, there was a draw in 2010. The Magpies are sitting pretty with a win-loss record of 6-3 and could really separate themselves from the pack with a big win over Melbourne. The Demons’ problems remain – the gap between their best and worst footy is too distinct, as evidenced by their glaring drop off in a 61-point loss to Port Adelaide last week. The significance of the occasion should see a more determined performance from Melbourne this week.
WHERE AND WHEN: MCG, Monday 3.20pm AEST
TV AND RADIO: Click here for broadcast guide
LAST FIVE TIMES
R12, 2014, Collingwood 8.13 (61) d Melbourne 3.10 (28) at the MCG
R11, 2013, Collingwood 17.20 (122) d Melbourne 5.9 (39) at the MCG
R11, 2012, Collingwood 19.15 (129) d Melbourne 13.9 (87) at the MCG
R12, 2011, Collingwood 19.15 (129) d Melbourne 6.5 (41) at the MCG
R12, 2010, Melbourne 11.10 (76) drew Collingwood 9.22 (76) at the MCG
THE SIX POINTS
1. Melbourne managed just three goals for the game, two of which came in the first half, when these sides last met in round 12 last season.
2. Both teams have struggled to win centre clearances in 2015 with Melbourne averaging just 9.9 per game to rank 17th in the competition. The Magpies are equal third last with 11.7 per game.
3. Collingwood has dominated Melbourne over a long period, winning nine of the past 10 meetings. The Demons' only premiership points since 2008 came from a draw in round 12, 2010.
4. Melbourne is ranked 18th in the competition for uncontested possessions, averaging 188.7 per game. The Magpies are ranked 13th in that category with 210.2 per game.
5. Melbourne has the worst goalkicking accuracy of any side in 2015, kicking 87 goals and 94 behinds at 45.1 per cent efficiency. Collingwood is ranked third at 54 per cent goal efficiency, booting 129 goals and 107 behinds.
6. Collingwood forward Alex Fasolo scored a season-high 23.3 points in the Official AFL Player Ratings against North Melbourne last weekend.
IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR… Jeremy Howe.
The Melbourne high-flyer went missing against Port Adelaide, notching just six touches from 96 per cent game time. Howe is a much better player than that and needs to impose himself on the game more. After starting the year down back, he has been switched forward in recent weeks to add some punch to Melbourne's scoring power. Up forward, Howe gives the Demons a point of difference and it is up to him to make the most of that.
PREDICTION: Collingwood by 22 points
