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A NEW clause in the Match Review Panel guidelines that allows for more flexibility in penalties is likely to cost Luke Hodge his place in Hawthorn's first final in three weeks.

Hodge will be scrutinised by the panel on Monday for a high bump on Chad Wingard that sandwiched the Port Adelaide star's head between the behind post and Hodge's hip on Friday night at Etihad Stadium. 

Given high contact was made with enough force to constitute a report, a penalty is inevitable. But there are circumstances in this case that could see a $1500 fine balloon to a three-week ban, hurting both Hodge and his team's quest for a third straight premiership. 

Hodge's hit part of 'a hard game': Clarkson

Two of the three gradings are straightforward in this case - careless conduct and high contact. Impact, however, is murky.

Given Wingard was able to not just play on after the bump but kick two goals in the next 10 minutes, the impact would normally be graded low. That would result in a $1500 fine and Hodge's record would be irrelevant. 

If the impact was graded medium, the penalty would be pushed up to two weeks, and Hodge's bad record would mean he couldn't plead that down. 

The MRP, however, has this year been given the freedom to upgrade impact to account for the risk of serious injury. 

It is something they have done multiple times without necessarily communicating it in their weekly explanations.

It is not just feasible, but highly likely, that Hodge's bump will be graded high impact, given the risk associated with bumping Wingard in the head when he is in front of the behind post.

"It is played at top level speed (and) the difficult thing with this one is that there is a goalpost involved,” Hawks coach Alastair Clarkson told Melbourne radio station SEN on Saturday. 

That behind post will likely be a relevant factor for the MRP but not in Hodge's favour, just as the fence works against a player when he shoves an opponent across the boundary line. 

Here is the clause in the MRP guidelines that will hurt Hodge: 

Strong consideration will be given to the potential to cause serious injury. For example, contact to the head will generally have more impact than contact to the body if the force used is similar. The potential to cause serious injury is also relevant in the following cases: 

- Any head-high contact with a player who has his head over the ball, particularly when contact is made from an opponent approaching from a front-on position; forceful round-arm swings that make head-high contact to a Player in a marking contest, ruck contest or when tackling; 

- Spear tackles; and 

- Driving an opponent into the ground when his arms are pinned

So if the MRP decides to grade the impact as high, Hodge's base sanction would sit at three weeks. This is when his bad record really comes back to haunt him.

A player with a clean record would be able to plead guilty and return for the first week of finals, but Hodge was suspended for three matches earlier this season for striking North Melbourne skipper Andrew Swallow.

Any player who has been suspended for two matches or more in the past two AFL seasons has one match added to their base sanction, taking Hodge's likely base penalty to four weeks. 

He could plead that down to three weeks, but that would still result in one missed final, which, with a trip to Perth looming, could be the difference between winning and gaining direct passage to a home preliminary final, or losing and facing three do-or-die games to win a third successive premiership.

As Clarkson said on Saturday: "They will look at it and make their determinations from that, but (it's a) pretty tough call."

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