THE END of the NAB AFL Under-18 Championships gives us a chance to take stock of where things sit with this year's draft pool. Here are a few key questions surrounding the 2017 crop.
How's it shaping up?
It is set to be a draft dominated early by midfielders and smaller types, with a few taller prospects thrown in as first-round picks. Recruiters have different takes on the strength of this year's pool, but it's probably fair to say of the top class, more players have dropped back than jumped up across the year.
Some scouts are enthused about the quality of the depth available even if the first round may not at this stage appear as strong as some previous years. Already some are talking about next year's group as being more exciting, and on impressions so far it is looking strong. But the grass is always greener in that respect.
The likes of Adam Cerra, Cam Rayner, Luke Davies-Uniacke, Paddy Dow, Jack Higgins and Patrick Naish are among the leading midfielders for 2017, while Jarrod Brander, Darcy Fogarty, Sam Hayes and Will Sutherland, should he choose footy over cricket, headline the talls available.
Who enhanced their stocks?
There were plenty to push up the board through the championships. Right at the pointy end, Rayner couldn't have done much more. He started the carnival rated one of the leading prospects and lived up to that, kicking 12 goals and powering through the midfield.
Higgins and Naish were equally as impressive, while Nick Coffield and Charlie Constable were other Vic Metro midfielders to lift their stocks. Smalls Dylan Moore and Gryan Miers used their aerobic base and goal sense to show their traits, while midfielders Zac Bailey, Brayden Ainsworth, Trent Mynott, Ryley Stoddart and Adelaide father-son prospect Jackson Edwards were others to go well.
Of the taller draft hopefuls, nobody increased their standing more than West Australian Oscar Allen, who claimed the Larke Medal after a consistent carnival as his side's leading forward. Allen works hard, is a good mark and converts his chances. Teammate Aaron Naughton, a key defender who was named WA's MVP, also pushed his name into top-20 considerations.
Harrison Petty was reliable as a key defender for South Australia, and Jordan Houlahan's leap and marking strength makes him an eye-catcher who could jump up the rankings in the last part of the year. Ben Paton was the best performed over-ager, having been overlooked last year, to be a consistent rebounder for Vic Country.
Who has more to show?
Connor Ballenden has had an inconsistent season so far, but found some of his best form behind the ball in the final two Allies games. Hopefully he can take that into the back half of the year with the Brisbane Lions NEAFL side.
Noah Balta and Jack Petruccelle are exciting prospects with real AFL qualities, particularly in their athleticism. However, they were quiet through the national carnival and will return to the TAC Cup keen to show their wares.
Fogarty remains a likely early pick, and is still probably the first South Australian selected. But the powerful 192cm forward couldn't get going in the championships, and ended the carnival in the backline.
Darcy Fogarty failed to fire in the U18 Championships. Picture: AFL Photos
Was anyone missing?
Andrew McPherson remains one of South Australia's best players but didn't feature at all throughout the carnival as he dealt with a nagging quad injury. It's a shame, as he's a hard-working, no fuss prospect who can be deployed in a number of positions, including the midfield and across half back. His endurance base is a key trait.
Noah Answerth is another who didn't play at all. Answerth fractured his back in the second round of the TAC Cup this year playing for the Oakleigh Chargers, but would have been eligible to feature for Vic Metro. His size, athleticism and traits as an attacking half-back mean he might still get a shot despite the serious season-ending injury.
Charlie Spargo played the first round for the Allies but had shoulder surgery after that which will rule him out for the rest of the season, while Andrew Brayshaw returned from some soft-tissue issues in the middle of the carnival for Vic Metro. His two games were promising and he could push into the top-20 as things go on.
How are the academy and father-son academy kids going?
Ballenden started the year as a possible No.1 pick in the eyes of recruiters, but isn't at that point now. He probably sits later in the first round. Tall backman Jack Payne has emerged as a possible Lions academy pick after a solid under-18 academy series.
Connor Ballenden remains an intriguing prospect. AFL Photos
The Giants don't have any top-end academy picks coming through for the first time in three years, but Jack Powell, Nick Shipley, Nathan Richards and Tom Highmore may get a look in later on. James Bell and zippy forward Jack Hardman appear the best shots for the Swans academy, while ruckman Brayden Crossley, tied to Gold Coast's academy, showed his aggressive streak in a good carnival for the Allies.
Naish tops the father-son group. The Tigers prospect has had a fantastic season and could attract a top-10 bid, such is his run and carry and elite kicking skills. The Crows will continue to monitor Edwards and he has pushed his name into second-round contention, while Tyler Brown, the son of Collingwood great Gavin, has been improving in form at TAC Cup level for the Eastern Ranges. He has plenty of upside.
And No.1… Who is it?
Rayner has the edge at this point. His capacity to impact games in many ways makes him a special talent, and he's lifted at every level this season. It's been the type of year that No.1 picks produce.
Davies-Uniacke is right in the conversation as well. He has plenty of traits that will see him in the top handful of most clubs' draft boards: he's tough, competitive, has a turn of pace, is a big body and has a better engine than Rayner.
Cerra isn't far off, if Brander can continue his form from the final game of the carnival then he could be a show, while Sutherland could tempt some if he goes and blitzes at TAC Cup level from here. But Rayner is best placed as it stands.
