THE 2017 BROWNLOW Medal appears to be Dustin Martin's to lose, but the Richmond superstar will need to walk the Tribunal tightrope between now and the end of the season to collect his award.
CrownBet, which will be paying out all bets on ineligible Geelong superstar Patrick Dangerfield if he polls the most votes, has wound in Martin to a $1.20 favourite to win his first Brownlow Medal.
However, Martin has been fined twice for low-level offences and a third minor charge would see him suspended for one match himself and ruled out of contention for this year's Brownlow Medal.
Martin, who has otherwise avoided suspension through his 171-game career, finds himself in this perilous position because of two incidents in the round 17 win against the Brisbane Lions.
He was charged with rough conduct for an off-the-ball bump on Lewis Taylor and fined $1000, and then made unnecessary contact to the face of Nick Robertson, drawing a $1500 fine.
Martin's track record, drawing only one other Tribunal charge for a low-level offence (for forceful front-on contact in his third game), suggests he will keep his cool for the remainder of Richmond's season.
If Martin does commit a third low-level offence, the Tigers would have much more motivation to challenge than the Cats did with Dangerfield, given they would only be risking $2500 – not an extra week on the sidelines.
The AFL.com.au Brownlow predictor suggests Martin would win in a landslide if he remains eligible, potentially by a record margin following Dangerfield's suspension.
He has been judged best afield in seven of the Tigers' past nine games and already has a tally of 32 votes – a lead of 13 votes over the next eligible player, Hawthorn midfielder Tom Mitchell.
Despite the excellent form of teammate Trent Cotchin, the AFL Coaches votes suggest it is unlikely Martin will have too many votes taken from him.
Martin leads the AFLCA Player of the Year award with 101 votes, ahead of Dangerfield (94 votes) and more than double Cotchin (50 votes).
He has been adjudged best on ground by the coaches seven times with perfect 10 scores, and shared best-afield honours twice with scores of nine.
RICHMOND COACHES VOTES TOP 5
Dustin Martin 101 votes
Trent Cotchin 50 votes
Alex Rance 46 votes
Jack Riewoldt 23 votes
Dion Prestia 19 votes
