SUMMARY
Collingwood should win well enough to sew up a finals berth, but this encounter has all the hallmarks of a danger game. The fast track under the roof at Etihad Stadium might well provide the ideal setting for the nothing-to-lose Lions to be the party poopers. The Pies have been challenged physically and mentally as a horrific casualty list and a series of formidable opponents have taken their toll, with the Woods winning just one of their past four games to jeopardise their spot in the top eight. Fresh in the memory is the exhilarating round seven clash between the clubs in which Brisbane almost upset Collingwood in a free-flowing shootout at the Gabba. The Lions have lost three in a row but two of them were by under a goal, and a big scalp on the run home would further vindicate the club’s bold new direction.
WHERE AND WHEN: Etihad Stadium, Saturday August 11, 7.25pm
TV AND RADIO: Click here for broadcast guide
LAST FIVE TIMES
R7, 2018, Collingwood 19.7 (121) d Brisbane Lions 18.6 (114) at the Gabba
R10, 2017, Collingwood 18.21 (129) d Brisbane Lions 13.6 (84) at the MCG
R8, 2016, Collingwood 20.23 (143) d Brisbane Lions 10.5 (65) at the Gabba
R1, 2015, Collingwood 12.14 (86) d Brisbane Lions 11.8 (74) at the Gabba
R21, 2014, Brisbane Lions 18.15 (123) d Collingwood 8.8 (56) at the MCG
THE SIX POINTS
1. Collingwood has won its past four games against Brisbane and seven of the past eight since 2011. The Lions last defeated the Pies in round 21, 2014.
2. The Magpies are the fourth-highest-scoring team this season, averaging 92 points a game, while Brisbane is 10th with 84.
3. Their previous clash in round seven at the Gabba was one of the highest-scoring games of the season, producing a combined 37 goals. Jordan De Goey booted five for the Magpies, who won by seven points, while Lewis Taylor kicked four for the Lions.
4. The teams have played only once at Etihad Stadium – back in round eight, 2002, when Collingwood upset reigning premier Brisbane by three points. The Lions have lost nine of their past 11 games at the Docklands venue.
5. Another Collingwood loss and it will be the first time since rounds 14-16 last year that the Pies will have lost three in a row. Meanwhile, the Lions’ losing streak stands at three.
6. Collingwood runner Jack Crisp is the AFL’s second-best small/medium defender, according to the Schick AFL Player Ratings, rising to a career-best ranking of No.53. He is the seventh-highest ranked Magpie.
IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR …
Cameron Rayner. With 30 seconds left in the clash with North Melbourne at the Gabba last round, Rayner favoured a ‘Stevie J’ snap instead of a regulation drop punt and missed a set shot that would have won the game for Brisbane. After the final siren, the Lions prodigy was inconsolable. This looms as an early test in what is expected to be a long and illustrious career.
PREDICTION: Collingwood by 29 points
