LOOK away now if you're one of those North Melbourne fans hoping Ben Brown wins this year's Coleman Medal.

Anything can happen, of course, but history suggests Brown – currently in a tie with dual winner Jack Riewoldt on 58 goals – won't have a prolific fortnight to end his home and away campaign.

Brown's Kangaroos face Adelaide and St Kilda in the last two rounds, sides he has kicked just a combined 19 majors in 13 career matches against.

Riewoldt, on the other hand – fresh from a sizzling bag of 10 at Gold Coast's expense on Saturday – averages 2.3 goals in 31 clashes with Richmond's upcoming opponents, Essendon and the Western Bulldogs.

The medal was at the North spearhead's mercy only three rounds ago, when he boasted a 10-goal buffer over Sydney's Lance Franklin and the field.

Brown snapped out of a lean patch with a four-goal haul against the Dogs on Sunday, after managing the same number in total between rounds 18 and 20.

But Riewoldt's weekend heroics have made things interesting, and there are five realistic contenders, including Franklin (52), Tom Hawkins and Luke Breust (50 each).

Franklin, who won the Coleman in 2008, 2011, 2014 and 2017, has come alive in the past two weeks, booting six goals in a win over Collingwood, then 2.5 – with another out on the full – against Melbourne.

He famously savaged Liam Jones with 10 goals in the final round last year to snatch the medal from West Coast's Josh Kennedy.

Perhaps also in Riewoldt's favour is that the Tigers' round 23 foe, the Bulldogs, have leaked nine more goals to key-position players than any other team this season.

The Bombers are middle of the pack in the same category, while Brown's big chance appears to be against the Saints, who cough up the fifth-most majors to key-position rivals.

Brown also may not have to deal with his St Kilda full-back namesake Nathan Brown, who is set to face the Tribunal for his bump on Essendon's Adam Saad last Friday night.

The other factor potentially in the Tasmanian's favour is the return from injury in recent weeks of his partner-in-crime Jarrad Waite.

Hawkins will be licking his lips at the prospect of taking on the Dockers and Suns, having proven his ability to rack up big tallies with back-to-back seven-goal displays in rounds 18 and 19.

Against the 'Tomahawk' is that key-position players have kicked the fourth-least goals of any venue this year at GMHBA Stadium, where both matches will be played.

Breust is the sole small forward among the pack and has eight goals to make up, but none of the contenders averages more majors against their last two opponents than the Hawk's three.

The 2014 All Australian also boasts six bags of at least four goals in 2018, so the Coleman Medal race is alive and kicking.

Opening-quarter quirk

Hawthorn, West Coast, Collingwood, Western Bulldogs, Sydney and Fremantle all won in round 21 after kicking one or no goals in losing the first term.

Surely that's just an anomaly? Think again, at least in 2018.

Teams that score 11 points or fewer and lose the opening quarter have won a remarkably high 40.5 per cent of games this season.

That is a huge spike from the roughly 24 per cent of victories in the same scenario in the past five years, as well as in the past decade.

McDonald's radar goes off

Demon Tom McDonald's transformation from an at-times shaky-kicking defender to sharpshooting forward is well documented.

The 25-year-old slotted 26 goals against seven behinds and one complete miss from set shots between rounds one to 19 to be among the leading marksmen in the AFL.

But something's gone awry in the past fortnight.

McDonald's set-shot statistics in that time are two goals compared to five behinds, including two misses from slight angles between 30m and 40m out.

One of those straightforward misfires came on Sunday against Sydney, a game Melbourne kicked 10.18 in and lost by nine points.

Narrow defeats a habit at Cattery

Geelong's 11-point loss to Hawthorn on Saturday was its eighth this year inside three goals, with its only other defeat in 2018 coming to Essendon by 34 points in round nine.

The Cats have an average losing margin of 12.89 points, the narrowest in the competition in 2018 and the 40th-lowest in a season among teams with at least five defeats.

The record also belongs to Geelong, which suffered six defeats by an agonising average of 7.2 points across the 2013 home and away season and finals.