MUCH like Richmond's supposedly inevitable march to back-to-back premierships, Magpie Jaidyn Stephenson has seemingly already accepted the NAB AFL Rising Star award.
Twenty-three young AFL footballers will arrive at Friday's Rising Star function in Melbourne with differing expectations of having a medal draped around their neck at afternoon's end.
GET TO THE GAME All your finals ticketing info
The judges have cast their 5-4-3-2-1 votes, so the winner is privately decided, but will it – or should it – be in a black-and-white landslide?
Stephenson, 19, has been nothing short of a sensation in his rookie season, with the blond forward becoming one of only three players in history to register at least 30 goals and 60 tackles in his debut year.
He still has a significant role to play in how far Collingwood progresses in September, given how he has helped transform an impotent forward line into a multi-pronged monster.
Stephenson's 34 goals are the equal 20th-most this year and he is one of four Pies in that territory, along with Josh Thomas (35), Jordan de Goey (36) and Will Hoskin-Elliott (39).
Throw in another first-year forward in Brody Mihocek (23) and Mason Cox (20), who ranks third in the AFL for contested marks, and it's little wonder Collingwood is the third-heaviest scoring side.
Stephenson also places in the top 100 in the competition for groundball-gets inside 50 (57th), total score involvements (81st) and pressure acts (equal 94th).
So will the Eastern Ranges product – last year's No.6 draft pick – join Andy McGrath (2017), Jesse Hogan (2015), Jaeger O'Meara (2013) and Dyson Heppell (2011) as a Rising Star winner?
Possibly and probably, but the race is tighter than some think.
Adelaide defender Tom Doedee looms as Stephenson's most serious opposition, while Brisbane's dual nominee Alex Witherden is another potential threat.
Doedee – Jake Lever's direct replacement in the Crows' backline – averaged 18 disposals, 5.6 marks (2.2 intercepts) and 3.2 rebound 50s in a strong 2018 campaign.
In totals, he ranked 10th for intercept possessions, equal 10th for groundball-gets in defensive 50, 18th for defensive 50 contested possessions, equal 21st for intercept marks, and 29th for spoils.
Those numbers demand that the judges at least consider him as this season's Rising Star winner.
Tom Doedee was a shining light for the Crows until injury cut short his season. Picture: AFL Photos
Lions coach Chris Fagan is adamant Witherden, his kick-in specialist, should also be in the conversation.
No Rising Star nominee averaged as many disposals as his 22.4 in 2018, his overall tally of 471 good for 58th-most in the competition.
Witherden came in fourth for marks, second for uncontested marks, equal 12th for rebound 50s, equal 15th for kicks (at 75.6 per cent efficiency) and equal 33rd for uncontested possessions.
Outside of them, 2017 No.1 selection Cam Rayner, flying Swan Oliver Florent, Blue Paddy Dow, Richmond's loveable larrikin Jack Higgins and Sydney goalsneak Ben Ronke will all have admirers.
But there seems only three possible winners and whichever way it goes, the numbers tell us it's a lot closer than we've been led to believe.
Danger! Danger!
Eyebrows were raised when Patrick Dangerfield's teammates voted at least three Cats above him as the club's contenders in the AFL Players' MVP award.
That snub may have stung Dangerfield into action.
The 2016 Brownlow medallist went off for 34 disposals, four goals and five score assists in Geelong's 102-point trouncing of Gold Coast on Saturday.
Dangerfield's solo effort made him the only player to accumulate more than 25 disposals, three goals and three score assists in a game this season.
Bruise-free Demons a thing of the past
Melbourne's emergence as the AFL's best contested ball team was confirmed when it annihilated its closest rival Greater Western Sydney in that area on Sunday.
The Demons crushed the Giants 139-111 in contested ball to end the home and away season with a plus-17.7 differential – the second-best ever behind West Coast's +20 in 2006.
It is an incredible improvement from five years ago, when Melbourne was minus-23.5 in contested possession.
The Dees, who will play in the finals for the first time since 2006, have been in the black for contested ball the past three seasons after being negative for the previous 17 years.
They won the contested possession tally by at least 20 on a League-leading nine occasions this year.
