TWO-TIME premiership coach Denis Pagan has tipped West Coast to win the flag because Richmond's players have had too long to ponder the prospect of going back-to-back.
Pagan said the Eagles would not only make the Grand Final as a result of earning two home finals, they would win it with the Tigers already in danger of thinking too far ahead.
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"I think the Tigers have had a long while to think about premierships and I'm sure their players would have been thinking about premierships probably from about four or five weeks ago whereas no other side in the competition would have had the opportunity to think about it," Pagan said on Monday, when announced as this year's presenter of the Jock McHale medal to the winning coach.
"It's going to be exciting to see what Damien [Hardwick] does to get their minds on the job and play in the present and not get involved in the future."
Pagan, who coached North Melbourne to premierships in 1996 and 1999, compared the Tigers' plight to that of Adelaide in 1998.
The Crows went on to win the premiership against Pagan's Kangaroos but not before they lost their first final.
"It's only a natural thing," he said.
"I went through a similar scenario in 1998 when I think Adelaide got in front of themselves.
"It's a long while ago and I just think if I was playing with Richmond, I'm sure it will only be natural they'll be thinking about the Grand Final and premierships."
He said Hardwick, and any other coach, played a "significant role" whenever the team ran out, and had a big responsibility to "set the agenda" leading into a game.
He also rubbished the idea of clubs going with a gentle approach to finals, claiming he would have instigated a "bring your mouthguards" mentality for the week off to ensure the players were in the right mindset.
"The guys would know they're in a routine and I think the players thrive on competition," he said.
"I know it's changed and everyone says you're a fool to be talking like this but the reality is, if you're not up to the pace and you're not training like the game demands you train, you can sometimes go out there and not be at your best mentally.
"If you're not at your best mentally, everyone knows the consequences of that.
"We're in this age of sensitive new-age coaching and strength and conditioning guys, but I certainly would have done a bit of competitive work and maybe even a mini match practice."
While Pagan claimed the pre-finals bye had a place for teams battling injuries, he believed it could hamper the Tigers' chances of winning the overall prize.
"In Richmond's scenario, I don't know if it's going to help them," he said.
"I think they'll probably beat Hawthorn this week, and that means they're not going to play many games … one game in three weeks or something."
While the Eagles remained his firm tip, Pagan said he wouldn't be surprised "in the slightest" if four-time premiership coach and former Kangaroo Alastair Clarkson "pulled out something special" and delivered another flag to Waverley.
On another matter, Pagan said he believed there was no need for the AFL to introduce rule changes for 2019.
"The game's always been strong enough to sort itself out," he said.
"I think the football we're seeing now has been as exciting as any time I've watched it."
