MELBOURNE can track it back to a cold March night in Geelong.
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In eight second-half minutes, the Demons had eight consecutive forward-50 entries. It kicked three behinds, put two more out on the full and had the other three rushed out by the Cats.
It wasn't just the story of a dismal 80-point defeat. It was the story of their season.
The writing was on the wall for Melbourne as early as the round two thrashing by the Cats. Picture: AFL Photos
When the final siren sounds in Hobart on Saturday afternoon, everyone involved with the Melbourne Football Club will look at itself and question 'where did it all go wrong?'
From a preliminary final, to premiership favourites, to second-last on the AFL ladder.
In reality, the warning signs were there from the outset.
Melbourne looked lethargic in round one, thrashed by a reinvigorated Port Adelaide side at the MCG in a defeat that ultimately set the tone for the remainder of the club's campaign.
Then came the mauling at GMHBA Stadium, where its issues were brutally exposed.
Melbourne had 72 inside 50s that night, yet lost by 80 points. Its forwards – led by exciting key-position duo Tom McDonald and Sam Weideman – were badly out of form.
Indeed, they copped the brunt of the criticism in the weeks following the loss.
But in reality, the issues weren't just confined to the attacking half of the field. The footy public quickly realised that a week later in another sorry loss, this time to Essendon.
On that night at the MCG, the Dons – then the lowest-scoring side in the League – picked off open forwards with ease. Remarkably, they kicked 20 goals from just 53 entries.
From there, Melbourne's problems spiralled out of control.
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Melbourne will likely finish the season with a positive inside 50s differential. As things currently stand, it is seventh in the League for this particular statistic. And yet, the Demons will almost certainly finish second-last for points scored, and second-last for points against. Only wooden-spooners Gold Coast will finish worse in both categories, a damning fact.
It highlights deficiencies at either end and issues that will need to be solved this summer.
While the aforementioned McDonald and Weideman were out of form, the defenders Melbourne had paid big bucks for – Jake Lever and Steven May – couldn’t get on the park.
Jake Lever has played just seven games in his second season at Melbourne. Picture: AFL Photos
That was the other issue that snowballed for the Demons.
Melbourne will look at the list of players not on the track last summer and know that their absence contributed to its slow start to the campaign. Jack Viney, Christian Petracca, Clayton Oliver, James Harmes and Neville Jetta were among those important figures.
McDonald, Weideman and May were among those to sustain in-season injuries this year.
Even when someone in McDonald's position finally hit form – kicking three goals from 28 disposals against Fremantle, then six goals from 20 disposals against Carlton – it was stopped short by injury, with a torn meniscus bringing a premature end to his year.
It will lead to change at season's end.
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High-performance boss David Misson will be replaced by renowned fitness guru Darren Burgess, while the club's head physio Sam Pietsch is also expected to depart the club.
But while some of the blame can – and will – get placed upon the medical difficulties that the Demons faced, the club can't ignore the tactical issues it couldn't overcome in 2019.
Even where Melbourne should have swamped rival teams, it fell behind.
Far and away the best contested side in the competition last season, nearly doubling the differential numbers of the Pies (in second place) during 2018, the Demons were well beaten in contested possessions throughout the first three weeks of the campaign.
That was a worrying sign of things to come.
Although it will likely still finish the season with a positive contested possession differential, it will still be nearly four times less than what it was averaging last season.
But while the team dealt with injuries, there wasn't that much turnover from the side that rode on the crest of a wave on its way to a preliminary final barely 12 months ago.
Fifteen of the 22 players who featured in Melbourne's semi-final team that comfortably defeated Hawthorn last year will play in Saturday's clash with North Melbourne in Hobart.
Bayley Fritsch is one of the Demons in this week's team from last year's finals win over Hawthorn. Picture: AFL Photos
Meanwhile, of the 21 players who remain at the club from that semi-final side, only four are averaging more Champion Data ranking points this season than they were in 2018.
They are Christian Salem, Sam Frost, James Harmes and Weideman.
The rest have steadily declined, with Jordan Lewis, Angus Brayshaw, McDonald, Alex Neal-Bullen, Nathan Jones and Viney suffering from the most significant drop-offs.
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As is the case in the medical department, this will lead to change in the football department.
Assistant coaches Craig Jennings and Brendan McCartney are set to depart the club at season's end, while more alterations within the coaching setup appear likely.
However, for long-suffering Demons fans, the concern will remain.
Was this season just a blip on the radar as the club continues its surge into premiership contention? Or is this the start of yet another dark period and another long rebuild?
MELBOURNE: 2018 SEMI-FINAL TEAM
B: Neville Jetta, Oscar McDonald, Jordan Lewis
HB: Christian Salem, Sam Frost, Michael Hibberd
C: Christian Petracca, Angus Brayshaw, James Harmes
HF: Jake Melksham, Tom McDonald, Mitch Hannan
F: Sam Weideman, Aaron vandenBerg, Alex Neal-Bullen
FOLL: Max Gawn, Nathan Jones, Clayton Oliver
I/C: Jack Viney, Charlie Spargo, Dom Tyson, Bayley Fritsch
MELBOURNE: 2019 ROUND 23 TEAM
B: Jayden Hunt, Sam Frost, Christian Salem
HB: Jordan Lewis, Jake Lever, Nathan Jones
C: James Harmes, Angus Brayshaw, Billy Stretch
HF: Jay Kennedy Harris, Bayley Fritsch, Jake Melksham
F: Corey Wagner, Braydon Preuss, Christian Petracca
FOLL: Max Gawn, Jack Viney, Clayton Oliver
I/C: Charlie Spargo, Michael Hibberd, Alex Neal-Bullen, Marty Hore
IN: Jake Lever, Marty Hore, Jay Kennedy Harris, Billy Stretch, Corey Wagner, Braydon Preuss, Jayden Hunt
OUT: Neville Jetta, Oscar McDonald, Tom McDonald, Mitch Hannan, Sam Weideman, Aaron vandenBerg, Dom Tyson
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