ST KILDA'S forward line has quite a few question marks around it heading into the 2020 season, but new recruits Paddy Ryder and Dan Butler might be the keys to turning the ship around.
Inaccuracy in front of goal is the main issue that needs to be addressed but figuring out how the forward line should look ahead of round one will also be a point of contention.
Conversion was never a problem for the tall forwards, but the small forwards and the midfielders tended to blaze away last season.
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Jack Billings, Jade Gresham, Matthew Parker, Jack Lonie, Dean Kent, Nick Hind, Jack Sinclair and Luke Dunstan combined for 88 goals and 93 behinds in 2019.
It's easy to see why the Saints recruited Butler.
At times he had been maligned for trying to do too much and occasionally spraying kicks on the run.
But his career numbers of 53 goals and 28 behinds leave him with a 65 per cent conversion rate, well above where many of St Kilda's small forwards sat in 2019.
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For reference, Tony Lockett was one of the most accurate of all time with a 70 per cent conversion rate, while Bulldog Tory Dickson is the best converter in the game right now at 75 per cent (and second-best of all-time behind Michael Murphy, based on players with at least 50 scoring shots).
Perhaps those figures are a little more favourable thanks to the sheer number of star teammates he had at Richmond, but a goal per game should be what the former Tiger aims for.
Name |
Games |
Goals |
Behinds |
Conversion rate |
Tim Membrey |
22 |
44 |
17 |
72% |
Josh Bruce |
22 |
36 |
20 |
64% |
Matthew Parker |
17 |
16 |
13 |
55% |
Paddy Ryder |
17 |
15 |
12 |
56% |
Jade Gresham |
19 |
15 |
13 |
54% |
Ben Long |
16 |
14 |
9 |
61% |
Jack Lonie |
13 |
13 |
19 |
41% |
Jack Billings |
22 |
13 |
10 |
57% |
Dean Kent |
13 |
12 |
14 |
46% |
Nick Hind |
11 |
11 |
10 |
52% |
Rowan Marshall |
20 |
8 |
2 |
80% |
Dan Butler |
7 |
5 |
3 |
63% |
Jack Sinclair |
22 |
4 |
11 |
27% |
Luke Dunstan |
18 |
4 |
12 |
25% |
Contrasting the small forwards woes, the trio of Tim Membrey, Josh Bruce and Rowan Marshall accounted for an extraordinarily accurate 88 goals and 39 behinds in 2019.
But Bruce is now a Bulldog, which leaves the Saints looking at Ryder and 19-year-old Max King as the options to fill the hole Bruce has left.
What level of production Ryder has will go a long way in determining how successful the Saints will be in 2020.
Ryder managed 15.12 last year, at a 56 per cent conversion rate, as the second ruckman for Port Adelaide in a down year.
In fact, Ryder managed 54 goals and 36 behinds during his tenure at Port Adelaide, but he was the primary ruckman for most of that time before Scott Lycett came along.
The Saints will be hoping that Ryder can recapture his 2010-2014 form at Essendon, where he averaged 1.25 goals per game.
It would be unreasonable to expect Ryder to recapture that form as he heads into his 14th season but you can make a case that the three-club veteran might be better suited to a forward line with more space.
Ryder's role at Essendon at that time looks closer to what St Kilda's set up will be like in 2020.
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David Hille and Ryder split their time in the ruck, flanked by a third-tall type in Stewart Crameri and an army of small forwards.
Marshall, Ryder and Membrey might be a recipe for early success but where does that leave King?
The Saints will have tempered expectations and allowed him to develop at his own rate, but a three-pronged forward line of Ryder, Membrey and King could have some teething problems with a lack of chemistry.
Spacing might be an issue, but most defences would have difficulty matching up on two athletic 200cm forwards, which could see King ease into it against smaller backmen.
If the Saints can figure out the right mix of talls and manage even a reasonable uptick in accuracy from the small forwards, that could be all they need to rise from 14th to be in contention for a finals berth in 2020.