DARREN Minchington will on Thursday night step onto RSEA Park – the spiritual home of his former club St Kilda – as an unlisted Hawthorn footballer.
The Hawks and Saints kick off the Marsh Community Series, and Minchington will be keener than most to impress.
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His immediate AFL future depends on what happens in the next four weeks, as he hopes to secure Hawthorn's final list spot via the pre-season supplemental selection period, ending on March 13.
The word is the 26-year-old basically needs to only make it through that period unscathed for him to book a second season in brown and gold.
MARSH TEAMS Saints and Hawks go strong, fresh faces everywhere
Minchington had three hamstring setbacks just last season, then another minor one pre-Christmas, but he flashed offensive and defensive talent across his 28 games for St Kilda.
There will be more to it than just that but his advantage is the small forward position he plays.
The Hawks still boast two of 'the big three' small forwards from their golden era between 2012 and 2015: Luke Breust and Paul Puopolo, with the brilliant Cyril Rioli retired.
However, last year's return was modest.
Breust went from an All-Australian with 54 goals in 2018, to 34 last year – kicking one or fewer in 14 of his 22 matches – while Puopolo managed just 10 despite playing every game.
Yet individual goals are far from all they should be, and are, judged upon.
That trio, including Rioli, were defensively stellar during the flag three-peat from 2013-15, and there was little-to-no drop-off on that front from Breust or Puopolo in 2019.
Oliver Hanrahan and Dylan Moore snuck in nine and seven games, respectively, last year as complementary small forwards and will hope to be bigger factors this season.
Chad Wingard also played 84 per cent of his game time up forward through rounds three to 11 but excelled once he instead spent 94 per cent of his time as a midfielder from round 17.
HAWTHORN'S GENERAL FORWARDS IN 2019 v COMPETITION PEERS
PLAYERS |
GOALS |
SCORE INV |
PRESSURE |
Luke Breust |
Above average |
Above average |
Above average |
Oliver Hanrahan |
Average |
Average |
Poor |
Dylan Moore |
Poor |
Below average |
Average |
Paul Puopolo |
Below average |
Average |
Elite |
Hanrahan looks capable of stepping up offensively – he twice kicked two goals – but his defensive output, including nine tackles in as many games, is what held him back.
That's also why Minchington remains in the frame: he rated elite for pressure in the 2016 and 2017 seasons.
What would give pause to coach Alastair Clarkson is some of the adjacent data, especially in comparison to where his team once was.
HAWTHORN BY THE NUMBERS
SEASON |
POINTS FOR |
TIME IN FWD HALF DIFF |
PTS FROM FWD-HALF STOPPAGES |
PTS FROM FWD-HALF GAINS |
2019 |
79.2 (11th) |
+1.28 (9th) |
15.3 (9th) |
27.9 (7th) |
2018 |
89.6 (6th) |
+3.59 (3rd) |
13 (14th) |
33.8 (4th) |
2015 |
111.5 (1st) |
+9.16 (1st) |
20 (2nd) |
37.3 (1st) |
2014 |
111.7 (1st) |
+3:26 (6th) |
22 (1st) |
30.5 (5th) |
2013 |
114.7 (1st) |
+5.20 (3rd) |
20.3 (2nd) |
35.4 (1st) |
* AFL ranking in brackets
There are, of course, many factors at play here that go beyond just the small men in attack.
One is the quality of tall forwards – the Hawks had Jarryd Roughead, Lance Franklin and Jack Gunston in this period – as well as how much Sherrin is coming inside 50, how 'clean' the delivery is and where it's directed.
Interestingly, Hawthorn remained steady throughout the above period in inside 50 differential as one of the top four clubs in this regard.
But there hasn't been close to the same quality of key forward, due to Roughead entering Father Time then retirement, Ryan Schoenmakers' injuries, and Mitch Lewis emerging only last year.
That's where Jon Patton's arrival, in particular, could prove so meaningful and cause a trickle-down effect that brings to life the men at his feet.
How Patton, Lewis, Gunston and Tim O'Brien mesh could determine the direction of the Hawks' season but Breust, Puopolo and co. need to come along for the ride.
No AFL side had fewer general forwards in 2019 than Hawthorn's four, with that group – on average – ranking second for total pressure acts, but sixth in score involvements and seventh in goals.
None of those numbers are poor but they pale in comparison to Clarkson's great teams, so his ability to correct them could be pivotal.
Starting on Thursday night, with the unheralded Minchington in tow.
GENERAL FORWARDS BY CLUB 2012-2015
CLUB |
PLAYER COUNT |
TOTAL MATCHES |
TOTAL GOALS |
TOTAL SCORE INV |
TOTAL PRESSURE ACTS |
Western Bulldogs |
16 |
473 |
541 |
2384 |
5908 |
Hawthorn |
7 |
313 |
427 |
1995 |
5325 |
Collingwood |
12 |
388 |
309 |
1629 |
4973 |
Sydney |
13 |
342 |
333 |
1706 |
4652 |
Fremantle |
10 |
282 |
407 |
1514 |
4248 |
Essendon |
15 |
261 |
207 |
1165 |
3825 |
St Kilda |
14 |
303 |
321 |
1390 |
3677 |
Geelong |
11 |
270 |
208 |
1421 |
3610 |
Brisbane |
9 |
303 |
258 |
1301 |
3524 |
West Coast |
9 |
227 |
328 |
1219 |
3325 |
Adelaide |
9 |
272 |
386 |
1545 |
3302 |
Melbourne |
12 |
278 |
213 |
1032 |
3117 |
Gold Coast |
11 |
245 |
214 |
1076 |
3114 |
Richmond |
13 |
257 |
226 |
1211 |
3086 |
North Melbourne |
9 |
216 |
314 |
1117 |
2774 |
Carlton |
9 |
215 |
238 |
1023 |
2768 |
Port Adelaide |
7 |
158 |
108 |
590 |
1794 |
GWS Giants |
5 |
57 |
18 |
143 |
598 |
* Hawthorn's figures include Cyril Rioli rather than Jack Gunston
* All statistics courtesy of Champion Data