GEELONG swept to the 2007 AFL premiership with a side many judged to be the finest in years. It seemed the classic embodiment of the idea that clubs develop their lists over a number of years for a tilt at a flag or three, before beginning to rebuild.
So, as we approach round one, how far is your club from a realistic tilt at the premiership?
Taking Geelong’s 2007 list as the benchmark, we’ll look at each team’s list while considering four key factors:
* Age
* Experience
* Height
* Key positions
Of course, we know other, less tangible factors influence a side’s success or failure, such as injuries, suspensions, team stability, perhaps team spirit, and certainly the small matter of skill. But few of these can be reasonably assessed at the beginning of a year. What can be assessed, we’ll take a look at.
HAWTHORN
BEST 25
B: Brent Guerra, Stephen Gilham, Campbell Brown
HB: Grant Birchall, Trent Croad, Rick Ladson
C: Chance Bateman, Sam Mitchell, Shane Crawford
HF: Jordan Lewis, Lance Franklin, Ben McGlynn
F: Mark Williams, Jarryd Roughead, Tim Boyle
FOLL: Robert Campbell, Luke Hodge, Brad Sewell
I/C: Xavier Ellis, Tim Clarke, Clinton Young, Simon Taylor
EMG: Stuart Dew, Cyril Rioli, Tom Murphy
The rest of the squad:
Max Bailey, Zac Dawson, Beau Dowler, Danny Jacobs, Josh Kennedy, Luke McEntee, Jarryd Morton, Garry Moss, Beau Muston, Michael Osborne, Brent Renouf, Mitch Thorp, Travis Tuck, Brendan Whitecross, Alex Grima (rookie), Hugh Sandilands (rookie), Cameron Stokes (rookie), Matt Suckling (rookie), Tim Walsh (rookie)
The Hawks have a very good squad of 25, which possesses strength in all key areas - defence, midfield and attack. Although some depth has been lost through the retirements of Richie Vandenberg, Ben Dixon and Joel Smith, the addition of premiership player Dew and the exciting Rioli keeps it as a dangerous line-up. The tall timber set-up up forward with Franklin, Roughead and Boyle continues to be a tantalising prospect.
AGE (As at March 20, 2008)
* 21 years and under: (22)
* 22-25: (17)
* 26-29: (4)
* 30+: (1)
Hawthorn's list is the third youngest in the AFL, yet it is closer in age to Geelong's 2007 squad than many in the competition. But the Hawks enter the season with just five players aged 26 years or more, pointing towards at least another year of development.
MATCHES (As at March 20, 2008)
* 0 matches: (12)
* 1-25: (10)
* 26-50: (4)
* 51-100: (11)
* 101-200: (5)
* 200+: (2)
Only Carlton enters 2008 with fewer matches to its list - Hawthorn has a total of 2241 in games. Yet the Hawks have some good experience in the 51-200-plus category, with 18 players in this range. This offers great encouragement for the latter end of the season.
HEIGHT (As at March 20, 2008)
* 184cm and under: (18)
* 185-190cm: (10)
* 191-199cm: (13)
* 200cm+: (3)
Although its 184cm and under players is high, it possesses impressive numbers in the 191-199cm bracket, evening the list out nicely. Its strong number of key position/rucks bode well for the future.
POSITIONS
* Defenders: (11)
Smalls: (4)
Mediums: (2)
Talls: (5)
* Midfielders: (18)
Smalls: (9)
Mediums: (8)
Talls: (1)
* Forwards: (9)
Smalls: (4)
Mediums: (0)
Talls: (5)
* Rucks: (6)
The standout is the number of ruckmen on the list. Although the group is still 25 years and under, this is a great prospect long-term. As for 2008, the Hawks are developing nicely in each positional zone, giving them a chance to mix it with the best in September.
SUMMARY
After making the finals last year - for the first time since 2001 - much will be expected of the Hawks in 2008. And it's not hard to get excited either - does the name 'Buddy' ring a bell? But it will be interesting to see if it challenges for a top four berth or in fact slips a little before ultimately going forward in 2009/10. This is due to the loss of some on-field experience and the fact it is still an emerging group. It will be fascinating to watch.
NUTSHELL
Still a year or two under-ripe for a flag
OTHER FLAG FORM GUIDES
The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.
