WHERE AND WHEN: MCG, Saturday September 29, 2.30pm?
LAST TIME: Hawthorn 15.12 (102) d Sydney Swans 14.11 (95), round 22, 2012 at the SCG?
TV, RADIO AND BETTING: Click here for broadcast guide and odds
The stage is set for an epic 117th VFL/AFL Grand Final, after highly fancied Hawthorn almost stumbled against Adelaide last week, and the Sydney Swans beat Collingwood in convincing fashion. The Hawks have won 10 of the 15 deciders they've contested, including the past four - 1988, 1989, 1991 and 2008. An 11th premiership would send them clear of Richmond to outright fifth in total flags. The Swans have played in only one less Grand Final than their opponents, but have only four premiership cups in their trophy cabinet. Since their win in 1933, they have appeared in seven Grand Finals for just one win, in 2005 against West Coast. Saturday's match will see the two teams square off in a premiership decider for the first time, and both have legitimate claims to glory.
THE FOUR POINTS?
Hawthorn
1. The two teams' recent history at the MCG points to a Hawks premiership. Hawthorn has won 12 of its 15 games on the hallowed turf this season, its past 11 against non-Victorian teams at the ground, and its past four there against the Swans. The Swans have lost 11 of their past 13 games at the MCG, and have played there only once this season.
2. Hawthorn will welcome back captain Luke Hodge after he missed last week's win with illness. The skipper revealed on Tuesday he he'd been so sick he couldn't get out of bed on Saturday morning. But he resumed training on Monday, and declared himself a certain starter for the decider. The heartbreak story for the Hawks is Brent Guerra, whose injured hamstring has not recovered in time.
3. The midfield battle will be critical. Sam Mitchell and Brad Sewell have been superb all year, but Mitchell's two lowest-possession games this season were against the Swans, when he was tagged by Kieran Jack. In the round 22 clash, Shaun Burgoyne's influence when thrown into the middle was decisive, and Hawthorn will be hoping he can put his brilliant pack-busting ability to use again.
4. A big game from Jarryd Roughead may be the lift the Hawks need to get over the line. The versatile big man has had an excellent season, but after a purple patch during Lance Franklin's absence from rounds 15 to 21, he has kicked only one goal since, and hasn't found as much of the ball, either. If Roughead can take some marks up forward and convert his chances, Hawthorn will be well on the way to booting a winning score.
Sydney Swans
1. The Hawks have held the title of premiership favourites for most of the year and the widely held commentary has been their best is better than anyone else's. But the Swans may not agree with that sentiment. John Longmire's team stunned Hawthorn with some scintillating football in the round five victory in Launceston by 37 points. They then burst out of the blocks in the return bout at the SCG in round 22 before falling short in a seven-point classic. The AFL world might think the Hawks are the best team, but the Swans know at their best, they can compete with anyone.
2. Much has been made of the Swans' awful record at the MCG and it is worthy of mention. One win and a draw from 15 attempts certainly makes for sorry reading. But the Swans have focused only on what's in front of them throughout 2012, not the past. A strong victory over Collingwood in the preliminary final ended one hoodoo, breaking an 11-game losing streak against the Pies. And they insist the home of football holds no fears. "We’ll have just as many fans there as they will and there's no real home ground advantage on Grand Final day," co-captain Adam Goodes said.
3. Will Ted Richards take his place when the teams line up for the national anthem? History is littered with examples of the perils of taking injured players into Grand Finals. Richards is carrying a rolled ankle and is considered likely to play, which is crucial for the Swans as the All Australian defender has a good record against Lance Franklin. The Swans' other injury riddle was solved early in the week when Ben McGlynn failed a fitness test on his injured hamstring on Tuesday.
4. The sides seem evenly matched in most areas. Both have skill and grunt in the midfield, both have key position superstars in Franklin and Goodes and both have X-factors in Cyril Rioli and Lewis Jetta. But the Swans believe they have an edge in the ruck with Shane Mumford and Mike Pyke forming a surprisingly potent tandem for most of the year. With two genuine ruckmen at their disposal, plus the pinch-hitting of Lewis Roberts-Thomson when required, the Swans could have an advantage at the stoppages against the Hawks' ruck pair of David Hale and Roughead. If they can give their midfielders first use, it is game on.
AFL.com.au prediction: Hawthorn by 11 points??
Nick Smith and Paul Puopolo fight for the ball during the thriller at the SCG. Picture: AFL Media
The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL
