MAN DOWN! The unthinkable has happened with Gary Ablett [MID, $613,683] succumbing to what appeared to be a serious shoulder injury while on 67 points (134 for most of us as captain)on the weekend.
Although there were some positive results in the initial scans, Gaz will travel to Melbourne to seek further medical opinion as Gold Coast tries to determine the best course of action for his dislocated left shoulder.
Leading sports medico Dr Peter Larkins has said Ablett should spend at least four weeks on the sidelines in an attempt to minimise the chance of re-injuring the shoulder
This leaves 131,000 coaches to make the big call: ‘Do I trade’? And if so, ‘who to’?
Although we need to wait and hear results from the next set of scans, the wise words of Doc Larkins tell me we need to be prepared for the worst and put Gary on the chopping block.
Realistically, if he is going to miss more than two games, which looks probable, we cannot afford to have that type of money sitting on the bench and therefore we must trade him, with the intention of getting him back at some stage of course.
Finding a replacement for a star like Gaz is almost impossible with the Little Master having another sensational year averaging 120 including scores of 137, 146 and 157 in the last five weeks.
But crisis creates opportunity and we need to identify what the best options moving forward are, in what will prove to be one of the season defining moments in AFL Fantasy this year.
The teams that make the right decision here will place themselves in a great position for league glory.
Before the tribunal rulings came out, my number one recommendation was to spend a bit of cash and upgrade to the highest averaging player in the competition, Tom Rockliff [MID, $631,081].
Unfortunately, he has been ruled out for this week meaning he is no longer an option. Plenty of Fantasy coaches, myself included, have not only lost Gaz this week, but the in-form Rocky who has a three-game average of 144.
TOP THREE ABLETT TRADE OPTIONS
1. Steve Johnson [MID, $511,812] comes in at number one based on a number of factors. Firstly, he held the mantle of the competition’s highest scorer at the end of 2013 and was the highest priced player at the beginning of the year, so we know what he can do. A mid-season form slump this year caused Johnson’s price to plummet and he is now so cheap, he can be considered a downgrade from Ablett as that trade will make over $100,000 to use toward a second upgrade trade.
Stevie looks to have regained his form over the last three weeks registering an average of 110, with last week’s 131 against the Bulldogs a highlight. He is an elite scorer with six scores over 120 this season including two over 150. Looking at his upcoming games, he plays the Demons who he has scored 171, 163 and 156 in his last three games, followed by GWS who he scored 150 and 101 in his last two and then the Roos who he had 112 against last year. He has a break-even of 85, and will not be this cheap again in 2014.
2. Scott Pendlebury [MID, $564,534] is the safest option. The Pies' skipper is having another sensational year, where he seems to get the job done every week for his 78,000 owners. Over the season, Pendles has dropped below 100 on just two occasions, with a season low score of 91, despite copping the number one tag in almost every game. He is on a streak of eight-straight 100+ games, has a season average of 113 and a three-game average of 115. You need to pay the big bucks, but he is worth every cent.
3: After struggling to split Josh Kennedy [MID, $569,703] and Michael Barlow [$MID, $553,675], I have decided to select the cheaper of the two. Barlow was sensational on the weekend, scoring 134 against Melbourne which takes his season average to 111. After a huge start to the season with scores of 134 and 130, Barlow was cut down with injury, returning slowly by his standards, before hitting his straps in round nine. Since then he has a lowest score of 96 and boast three scores over 110. He is in the elite premium category with four scores over 130 and you expect more big scores in the coming weeks with games against the Giants at Patersons Stadium, the leaky Saints and then the Blues.
TOP THREE UNIQUE TRADE OPTIONS
1. Brandon Ellis [MID, $536,485] is on fire after a slow start to the season. He is on a streak of seven straight 100-point games, making him one of the form players of the competition. Over the last three weeks he has knocked up premium scores of 117, 115 and 115 and he takes that form into a game against the Power who he scored 128 against last season. I am one of the lucky two per cent that own Ellis, but this form should ensure an ownership rise. He has a break-even of 90 and you have to look back to round nine to find a game he has dropped that low. He works extremely hard to get into space for uncontested marks and the +6s are a joy to watch from a Fantasy coach’s perspective.
2. With little fanfare, Matt Priddis [MID, $558,225] is having an outstanding year, averaging 108. He is a watermark of consistency, dropping under the 100-point mark on just three occasions and two of those scores were 97 and 98. Since that score of 98 in round eight, Priddis is on a hot streak of seven straight 100+ performances including 118, 137 and 143, quieting critics who imply he lacks the ability to ‘go big’. People who trade in Priddis look set for instant reward with games against the Lions, before he faces the Tigers at Patersons Stadium. Priddis is owned by just three per cent of the competition but there a few more reliable points scorers out there.
3. After an extremely slow start to the season where Levi Greenwood [MID, $553,826] managed to score over 70 in just one of his first five games, he has well and truly turned things around, dropping under 100 on just two occasions since round seven. In that time, he has shown the ability to pump out huge scores with 120, 127, 131, 133 and 146 all coming in his last nine games. The beauty of Greenwood is he is low of the list of players to tag at North, in fact he often runs with the opposition’s best midfielder. Greenwood faces the Saints this week so another big score is certainly on the cards. The Roo is owned by less then two per cent of Fantasy coaches. So he's a unique point of difference.
WHAT WILL ALL THIS MEAN FOR THE SUNS?
The beauty about being a teammate of Ablett's is you are only going to cop a secondary tag at the very worst, and on most occasions Gazza’s young support cast have run free as the bulk of negative attention goes toward Ablett.
So far this season, we have not seen the Suns take the park without their skipper, so the question beckons, who will the Dogs aim to shut down when they play Gold Coast in Cairns this weekend?
Up until the last two weeks, Dion Prestia [MID, $556,505] has been on fire, but he may have fallen off the radar after the recent match-winning performances of David Swallow [DEF/MID, $485,774] and newly crowned DPP Harley Bennell [FWD/MID, $479,656].
Jaeger O’Meara [MID, $472,325] has been in hot form the past two weeks with scores of 100 and 116, no doubt catching the eye of the Bulldogs' coaching staff.
WHAT ARE THE TRADERS DOING THIS WEEK?
Warnie
In: Steve Johnson, Matt Priddis
Out: Gary Ablett, Brendon Goddard
Warnie has the double whammy of two midfield stars missing this week, so he's offloading both and will be ready to fix some of his mess with the $217,000 in the war chest next week.
Roy
In: Sam Mitchell, Steve Johnson
Out: Gary Ablett, Cameron Shenton
By bringing Mitchell into my midfield for the week, it will allow meto place Rockliff on the bench, and avoid playing a rookie as cover.Next week, this will enable me to trade the under-performing MattSuckling out of my backline and put Mitchell in defence.
Calvin
In: Josh Kennedy, Michael Barlow
Out: Gary Ablett, Brendon Goddard
Calvin has been hit hard in the mids, also losing Rockliff for the week. He will do the best he can in a bad situation by bringing in form players Barlow and Kennedy.
Good luck with the big decision! Run your ideas by me on Twitter @RoyDT.
