• Nine things we learned from round 21
• Fantasy round review: Memorable for all the wrong reasons
• Forecast the final eight with the 2014 ladder predictor
• Around the state leagues: Bulldog stars as Hogan returns
1. SYDNEY SWANS
64 points (16 wins, four losses) 142.7 per cent
The run home:
Rd 22: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Richmond at ANZ Stadium
If the Swans win next week:
- They can lock in the minor premiership by beating Richmond in round 23
- They can't finish lower than second and are guaranteed a home qualifying final
If they lose next week:
- They can still guarantee a top-two finish and a home qualifying final by beating Richmond in round 23
- They can finish as low as third if the Hawks win their last two matches and the Cats beat the Lions in round 23
Predicted finish: First
Predicted final match-up: Sydney Swans v Fremantle, first qualifying final, ANZ Stadium
Who's going to make it? Check out the 2014 ladder predictor
2. GEELONG
64 points (16 wins, four losses) 112.8 per cent
The run home:
Rd 22: Hawthorn at the MCG
Rd 23: Brisbane Lions at Simonds Stadium
If the Cats win next week:
- They can lock in a top-two finish and will host a qualifying final
- They can finish on top of the ladder if they beat the Brisbane Lions in round 23 and the Swans lose one of their remaining two games
- It would remain possible for them to host Fremantle in a qualifying final if the Swans lost in round 23 and the Hawks won
If they lose next week:
- They could still finish second if the Hawks lose to Collingwood in round 23
- They would still be guaranteed a Melbourne qualifying final if they beat the Brisbane Lions in round 23
Predicted finish: Second
Predicted final match-up: Geelong v Hawthorn, second qualifying final, MCG
3. HAWTHORN
60 points (15 wins, five losses) 138.5 per cent
The run home:
Rd 22: Geelong at the MCG
Rd 23: Collingwood at the MCG
If the Hawks win next week:
- They can't finish lower than third and will only play a qualifying final outside Melbourne if they lose to Collingwood in round 23 and the Swans lose their last two games
- They can finish on top of the ladder if they beat the Magpies in round 23 and the Swans lose their remaining two games
If they lose next week:
- They can finish as low as fourth if they lose to Collingwood in round 23 and the Dockers win their last two games
- They can still finish third if Fremantle loses one of its remaining two games
Predicted finish: Third
Predicted final match-up: Geelong v Hawthorn, second qualifying final, MCG
4. FREMANTLE
56 points (14 wins, six losses) 128.8 per cent
The run home:
Rd 22: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Rd 23: Port Adelaide at Patersons Stadium
If the Dockers win next week:
- They can lock in a top four finish by beating Port Adelaide in round 23
- They can finish as high as third if Geelong or the Hawks lose their remaining two games
- They can still fall out of the top four if Port Adelaide wins its last two games
If they lose next week:
- They will need Port Adelaide to lose one of its remaining two games to finish fourth
- They can't finish higher than fourth
Predicted finish: Fourth
Predicted final match-up: Sydney Swans v Fremantle, first qualifying final, ANZ Stadium
5. PORT ADELAIDE
52 points (13 wins, seven losses) 126.5 per cent
The run home:
Rd 22: Carlton at Adelaide Oval
Rd 23: Fremantle at Patersons Stadium
If the Power win next week:
- They can finish fourth by beating the Dockers in round 23 and overtaking them on percentage
- They can't finish lower than fifth and are guaranteed a home elimination final, even if they lose to Fremantle in round 23
If they lose next week:
- They can still finish fifth by beating Fremantle in round 23
- A showdown final is possible in week one of finals if the Crows win their remaining two games
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Predicted finish: Fifth
Predicted final match-up: Port Adelaide v West Coast, first elimination final, Adelaide Oval
6. NORTH MELBOURNE
48 points (12 wins, eight losses) 116.7 per cent
The run home:
Rd 22: Adelaide at Blundstone Arena
Rd 23: Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
If the Kangaroos win next week:
- They are guaranteed a home elimination final, unless Essendon wins its last two games and makes up a massive 10.7 per cent
- They can finish in fifth spot if they beat Melbourne in round 23 and Port Adelaide loses its last two games
If they lose next week:
- They can finish as low as eighth if Essendon wins its remaining two games and Adelaide beats St Kilda in round 23 by a large enough margin to overtake the Roos on percentage
Predicted finish: Sixth
Predicted final match-up: North Melbourne v Essendon, second elimination final, MCG
7. ESSENDON
44 points (11 wins, nine losses) 105.8 per cent
The run home:
Rd 22: Gold Coast at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Carlton at the MCG
If the Bombers win next week:
- They will be guaranteed a finals berth if Adelaide or Richmond loses one of their remaining two games
- They could host an elimination final if they beat Carlton in round 23 and Port Adelaide and North Melbourne lose their remaining two games
If they lose next week:
- They could drop out of the top eight if Adelaide and Richmond win their last two games
- They could still qualify for finals if they beat the Blues in round 23 and Adelaide or Richmond loses one of its last two games
Predicted finish: Seventh
Predicted final match-up: North Melbourne v Essendon, second elimination final, MCG
8. ADELAIDE
40 points (10 wins, 10 losses) 111.20 per cent
The run home:
Rd 22: North Melbourne at Blundstone Oval
Rd 23: St Kilda at Adelaide Oval
If the Crows win next week:
- They can lock in a finals berth by beating St Kilda at home in round 23
- They can finish seventh if they beat the Saints and Essendon loses one of its last two games
- They can earn a home elimination final, but only if North Melbourne loses to the Demons in round 23, the Crows make up 5.6 per cent on the Roos, and Essendon loses one of its remaining games
If they lose next week:
- They will miss the finals if Essendon wins one more game and at least one of Richmond, West Coast, Collingwood or Gold Coast wins both of its last two matches
- They can still finish in the top eight if they beat St Kilda in round 23 and the Tigers, Magpies, Suns and Eagles lose one of their last two games
Predicted finish: Ninth
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Richmond's thrilling win over Adelaide could prove decisive in the finals race. Picture: AFL Media
9. RICHMOND40 points (10 wins, 10 losses) 104.5 per cent
The run home:
Rd 22: St Kilda at the MCG
Rd 23: Sydney Swans at ANZ Stadium
If the Tigers win next week:
- And then beat the Swans in round 23, they can only be denied a finals berth if Adelaide wins its remaining two matches and Essendon wins one more game
- They can lose to the Swans in round 23 and still play finals if the Crows lose their last two games and Collingwood, Gold Coast and West Coast all lose one of their remaining two
If they lose next week:
- They will need to beat the Swans in round 23 and hope Adelaide loses its last two games and West Coast loses one to play finals
- They can finish as low as 12th if Collingwood, Gold Coast and the Eagles win
Predicted finish: 10th
10. COLLINGWOOD
40 points (10 wins, 10 losses) 96.9 per cent
After failing to back up their stirring win over Port Adelaide against West Coast, the Pies are now locked in a battle to keep their finals dream alive. Collingwood should have too much class for the Lions and Giants in the next two weeks but needs to win big to boost its percentage. It's difficult to see the Pies upsetting their nemesis Hawthorn in the final round, which might leave Nathan Buckley's men relying on other results to sneak into the eight.
The run home:
Rd 22: Greater Western Sydney at Spotless Stadium
Rd 23: Hawthorn at the MCG
If the Magpies win next week:
- They can play finals if they beat Hawthorn in round 23 and Adelaide, Richmond, Gold Coast and West Coast all lose one of their remaining two games
- They can lose to the Hawks in round 23 and still finish eighth, but only if the Crows, Tigers and Suns lose their last two games and the Eagles lose to Melbourne in round 22
- They can finish as low as 12th if they lose to the Hawks in round 23 and other results go against them
If they lose next week:
- They can only play finals if they beat the Hawks in round 23, Adelaide and Richmond lose their remaining two matches, and the Eagles and Suns lose in round 22
Predicted finish: 11th
11. GOLD COAST
40 points (10 wins, 10 losses) 96.8 per cent
Gary Ablett's season-ending shoulder injury might be the making of Gold Coast in the next few seasons, but it's likely to cost them a historic finals appearance in 2014. The Suns were bitterly disappointing in the loss to Carlton, barely firing a shot with their season on the line. Two games at Metricon against Port and West Coast gives them some hope but a poor percentage looms as a big obstacle to overcome. Hard to see the Suns mustering a finals challenge now.
The run home:
Rd 22: Essendon at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: West Coast at Metricon Stadium
If the Suns win next week:
- They can finish as high as seventh if they beat West Coast in round 23 and Essendon loses to Carlton in round 23
- They can finish eighth if they beat the Eagles in round 23 and Adelaide, Richmond and Collingwood only win one of their remaining two matches
- They will still miss the eight if Essendon wins in round 23 and Adelaide or Richmond wins its remaining two matches
If they lose next week:
- They must beat West Coast in round 23 and rely on Adelaide, Richmond and Collingwood all losing their remaining two matches to play finals
- They can finish as low as 12th if they lose to West Coast in their final home-and-away game
Predicted finish: 12th
12. WEST COAST
36 points (nine wins, 11 losses) 111.1 per cent
The run home:
Rd 22: Melbourne at Patersons Stadium
Rd 23: Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium
If the Eagles win next week:
- They can finish eighth if they beat Gold Coast in round 23 and Adelaide, Richmond and Collingwood only win one of their remaining two games.
- They can still finish as low as 12th if the Suns, Crows, Magpies and Tigers keep winning
If they lose next week:
- Their finals hopes are over if one of Adelaide, Richmond, Collingwood or Gold Coast wins
Predicted finish: Eighth
Predicted final match-up: Port Adelaide v West Coast, first elimination final, Adelaide Oval
