AFL.com.au's Nick Bowen explores this year's free agency market
Who are the biggest fish remaining in the 2014 free agency pool? And where are they at as they ponder their football futures?
AFL.com.au has assembled a list of the free agents most in demand this year, focusing on those players who are considered a realistic chance of changing clubs.
JAMES FRAWLEY (Melbourne)
State of play: Frawley, 25, is the most sought-after fish in the 2014 free agency pool, with Adelaide, Carlton, Hawthorn and Fremantle all putting their hats in the ring. The Hawks are understood to be leading the chase, ahead of Freo, but the key defender is a loyal Melbourne servant and now has to weigh up whether the Demons can achieve meaningful on-field success before he retires or whether he is better off chasing a premiership elsewhere.
Frawley's decision is complicated by the uncertainty on whether Paul Roos will coach the Demons beyond 2015 and on who his successor will be. Frawley is an unrestricted free agent – his existing contract was heavily front-ended – so if he decides to accept a rival offer the Dees are powerless to stop him.
What would it take? Frawley has denied reports that his manager put an $800,000-a-season price tag on his head, but industry sources suggest he could command between $700,000-800,000. However, the lure of on-field success might see the defender accept as low as $625,000 a season over four years to move to Hawthorn or Fremantle.
What compensation would Melbourne get? A first-round pick.
We say: If the Demons can build on their stirring victory over Adelaide last Saturday and win at least six games for the season, Frawley will stay. If not, he will join the Hawks.
DAVID MUNDY (Fremantle)
State of play: The big-bodied midfielder has attracted significant interest from opposition clubs, particularly in his home state of Victoria. The biggest issue with Mundy is his age. The restricted free agent turns 30 next July so teams might be wary of offering him anything more than a two-year contract. Mundy will have to weigh up pursuing a historic first premiership at Fremantle against a return to Victoria.
What would it take? Mundy can expect to earn about $600,000 a season if he remains with the Dockers. To poach him, opposition clubs will have to offer $650,000-$700,000 a season. Freo could look to sign Mundy on a two-year deal, in which case an opposition club might tempt him with a three or four-year deal.
What compensation would Fremantle get? First-round or end-of-first-round selection.
We say: Will re-sign with Fremantle.
David Mundy is likely to be targeted by Victorian clubs looking for a classy mid. Picture: AFL Media
BRYCE GIBBS (Carlton)
State of play: Gibbs said on Tuesday he wanted to stay at Carlton and had been heartened after recent discussions with the club about its on-field future. The rebuilding Blues want to keep him and are confident of re-signing him soon. But they must have considered whether they're better off letting the restricted free agent go and using their compensatory draft pick on one of this year's clutch of key-position prospects.
The South Australian has put down roots in Melbourne, but the Crows want him badly and many in the football industry expect they will get their man. At 25, Gibbs still has his best football ahead of him and, one way or the other, is set for a healthy payday.
What would it take? It is understood the Crows are prepared to offer Gibbs more than $700,000 a season, an amount the Blues are highly unlikely to match.
What compensation would Carlton get? A first-round pick.
We say: Will re-sign with Carlton.
TODD GOLDSTEIN (North Melbourne)
The state of play: A good big man is hard to find, so Goldstein won't lack for suitors if clubs get the sense he is on the market. Talks between the ruckman and North have dragged on since late last year and a deal does not appear imminent, but Goldstein is not believed to be seriously considering a change of club – at least, not at this stage.
What would it take? Money appears to be the main sticking point between Goldstein and the Roos. The restricted free agent is already on about $400,000-450,000 a season, having signed his last contract in 2012 when Greater Western Sydney was reportedly sniffing around. According to one rival list manager, clubs could offer Goldstein up to $600,000 a season, but the Roos might be able to keep him with a deal of around $500,000 a season.
What compensation would North Melbourne get? First-round or end-of-first-round pick.
We say: Will re-sign with North Melbourne, but things could get interesting if he is still unsigned in July.
Todd Goldstein remains some distance from a new contract with North Melbourne. Picture: AFL Media
DAVID MACKAY (Adelaide)
State of play: Adelaide put Mackay's name on the trade table last October and the midfielder seems happy to delay any decision on his future until later this year. Some Victorian clubs believe the former Oakleigh Charger is 'gettable' and his run and skill will attract offers. Mackay's contract has a trigger clause for 2015, but, unlike Nick Dal Santo last season, he will not require the Crows to consent to any free agency deal. But given Mackay is a restricted free agent, Adelaide can keep him by matching any rival offer.
What would it take? Stronger teams could secure Mackay, 25, with a $400,000-a-season deal, but a team struggling on field might need to pay $450,000 a season or more.
What compensation would Adelaide get? A second-round or end-of-second-round pick.
We say: The Crows have a fight on their hands to keep Mackay. At best a 50/50 chance to re-sign.
SHAUN HIGGINS (Western Bulldogs)
State of play: The good news is Higgins is fit and firing. The classy Bulldog has had his share of injuries over his career, the most serious the navicular stress fracture that limited him to three games last season. Opposition teams are still wary about Higgins' durability and want to see him get through the majority of the season before seriously considering an offer.
What would it take? $400,000 a season, perhaps slightly more if Higgins' good form continues. But a club that can offer more regular midfield time might also appeal to him.
What compensation would the Western Bulldogs get? Given Higgins has just turned 26, it could be as high as a second-round pick. If so, the Bulldogs might consider letting the restricted free agent go.
We say: Higgins will repay the faith the Dogs have shown in him and re-sign late in the season.
More midfield time could appeal to Shaun Higgins, but loyalty will also play a role. Picture: AFL Media
TYSON GOLDSACK (Collingwood)
State of play: Contrary to recent reports, Goldsack has not opened contract negotiations with Collingwood. His manager, Anthony McConville, told AFL.com.au he did not expect talks to start until the second half of the season. Goldsack's currency is on the rise after a strong start to 2014 as a defensive forward and his versatility will appeal to some teams. But others see him as a third tall and will target genuine key-position players instead.
What would it take? Collingwood is likely to offer Goldsack about $325,000 a season, with a rival team probably needing to offer $375,000-400,000 to trump it.
What compensation would Collingwood get? A third-round pick.
We say: Will re-sign with Collingwood late in the season.
What would it take? A rival club would probably have to offer Rosa $400,000 a season, perhaps as part of a three-year deal, to pry him away from West Coast.
What compensation would West Coast get? An end-of-second-round pick.
We say: If he remains unsigned towards the end of the season, Rosa will get offers from Victorian clubs. A 50/50 chance of staying at West Coast.
MICHAEL JAMISON (Carlton)
State of play: The veteran Carlton key defender is one of a dwindling number of talls on this year's free agency list, but rival clubs might be put off by his age – he turns 28 next month – and the injury problems he has had over his career. One rival list manager said Jamison could appeal to clubs in finals contention, but James Frawley is the No.1 key defensive target for premiership contenders such as Hawthorn and Fremantle. Jamison remains an important part of Carlton's on-field structure and the Blues are confident they are close to re-signing him.
What would it take? A team is unlikely to trump the Blues on salary, with the defender likely to command up to $400,000 a season to remain at Visy Park. But a club prepared to offer Jamison a three-year deal could snare him.
What compensation would Carlton get? Given Jamison's age, the Blues can expect only an end-of-second-round or third-round pick.
We say: Will re-sign with Carlton.
Michael Jamison has been a stalwart of Carlton's defence and will likely remain there. Picture: AFL Media
SHANE EDWARDS (Richmond)
State of play: Richmond has opened talks to secure Edwards, with a two-year deal believed to be on the table. Like former Tiger Matt White last year, Edwards could attract offers from teams looking to inject pace into their midfield or half-forward line. But Edwards, 25, is unlikely to be aggressively targeted until later in the year, if he remains unsigned.
What would it take? Edwards is likely to get between $300,000-350,000 to stay at Richmond, so rival clubs might have to offer up to $400,000 to sign him. A three or four-year deal could also be used as bait.
What compensation would Richmond get? End-of-second-round or third-round pick.
We say: Will re-sign with Richmond.
JAMES GWILT (St Kilda)
State of play: Before this season, Gwilt was often forced to play as a key defender, but St Kilda's recruitment of Luke Delaney and Josh Bruce at the end of 2013 has freed him up to play as a creative backman. The 27-year-old has made a strong start to 2014 and remains part of the Saints' future plans. Opposition clubs might be wary of his durability given he has only once played more than 15 games in a season.
What would it take? There is unlikely to be a bidding war for Gwilt, whose market value is widely seen as between $300,000-$350,000 a season. But a team prepared to offer a three-year contract could attract him.
What compensation would St Kilda get? Third-round pick.
We say: Will re-sign with St Kilda.
James Gwilt remains in St Kilda's plans but could move for a longer-term deal. Picture: AFL Media
OTHER FREE AGENTS WHO COULD ATTRACT INTEREST
Lynden Dunn, Melbourne.
Leigh Adams, North Melbourne.
Paul Stewart, Port Adelaide.
Jarryn Geary, St Kilda.
Sam Butler, West Coast.
Tom Williams, Western Bulldogs.
WHAT YOUR CLUB IS LIKELY TO DO
Adelaide: The Crows' No.1 target is Gibbs, but they also have their hat in the ring for Frawley. Jamison could appeal as a cheaper tall option in defence if they miss out on Frawley.
Brisbane Lions: The Lions' biggest need remains quality key-position players, but Frawley's price tag is probably too high. Higgins, Mackay and Rosa would add depth to the Lions' midfield, but they would have to pay a premium price to snare one of them.
Carlton: The Blues have signalled their interest in Frawley as they seek to bolster their key-position depth. If they lose Gibbs, they could make a play for Mundy, Mackay or Higgins.
Collingwood: The Pies already boast one of the best midfields in the competition but are believed to be interested in Mundy. Mackay and Rosa could also appeal as cheaper on-ball options.
Essendon: The Bombers made a serious play for Mundy when he last came out of contract in 2010 and could again target the midfielder. Given their belief their list's best chance of winning a flag will come in the next three years, Mundy's age should not be a concern.
Fremantle: The Dockers' No.1 priority is to re-sign Mundy and out-of-contract star Nat Fyfe, but they remain keenly interested in Frawley.
Geelong: The Cats might shy away from free agency this year in the hope they can lure Adelaide star and prospective 2015 free agent Patrick Dangerfield home at the end of next season. However, the Cats are likely to closely monitor Mundy's contractual situation and might consider making a late play for Higgins.
Gold Coast: The Suns are unlikely to be major players this year, with their main focus keeping their list together and re-signing skipper Gary Ablett.
Greater Western Sydney: The Giants could do with an experienced key defender but face an uphill task to lure Frawley, given he will probably only consider leaving Melbourne for a club in premiership contention. Gibbs and Higgins could appeal, but the Giants might prefer to concentrate on brokering trades for any homesick youngsters on their list.
Hawthorn: The Hawks have salary cap room after Lance Franklin's departure at the end of last season and have made Frawley their No. 1 target, with Mundy also on their radar.
Melbourne: Mitch Clark's departure could free up room for the Demons to target Goldstein as they prepare for life after No. 1 ruckman Mark Jamar. The Dees made a play for Mackay in the 2012 trade period and could do so again, while Rosa would boost their outside run.
North Melbourne: The Roos' list could do with more class ball-users, with Gibbs, Mackay and Higgins all fitting the bill. Given Robbie Tarrant's ongoing injury problems, North might target a key forward in this year's player exchange period, but there are no standout options among 2014's remaining free agents.
Port Adelaide: The Power have drafted so well in recent years they are unlikely to be big free agency players this year. If Gibbs decides to come home, they would have to consider him, but the Crows have the inside running.
Richmond: Frawley would fit perfectly into the Tigers' defence, but they have conceded a decent head-start to the Hawks in the race for the Demon. Goldsack's flexibility could also appeal.
St Kilda: The Saints will focus on the draft in 2014 with football manager Chris Pelchen saying late last year that the Saints would not actively look to sign free agents until 2016.
Sydney Swans: After signing Kurt Tippett and Lance Franklin in the past two years, the Swans are another team unlikely to play a big part in free agency this year. However, if Ryan O'Keefe departs, the Swans might use that salary cap room to target Goldstein.
West Coast: The Eagles could do with an injection of speed so Edwards could appeal as a relatively cheap addition to the midfield. Mackay could also be of interest, but if he leaves the Crows he seems headed home to Victoria.
Western Bulldogs: Frawley would go a long way to solving the Bulldogs' key position problems but the competition for his signature is hot. Goldsack might also appeal but is more of a third tall, while Mackay would add outside class.
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