Performing well in finals is required to win a premiership.
So it's no wonder the Sydney Swans, Hawthorn, Geelong and Fremantle – provided the Dockers finish in the top four – know the shape of their squads entering September is as relevant to their flag chances as how they performed in the home and away season.
That means each team will be managing the minutes of their key players as well as they can in order to gain any advantage possible in the lead-up to the finals.
Fremantle returned to form in its narrow loss against Geelong but it has the biggest hurdles in front of it.
No team has won the flag from fourth under the current final eight system – Collingwood (2002) and the Sydney Swans (2006) are the only two teams to make the Grand Final from so far back.
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Without attracting the same headlines as Hawthorn, Fremantle has had a relatively tough run with injury too in 2014.
Michael Walters, Michael Johnson, Michael Barlow and Matt de Boer have not played anywhere near the amount of football in 2014 as they did last year.
Only five of Fremantle’s top 10 in the best and fairest last season have been in the top 10 for minutes played this season.
And last season, when its position in the top four was virtually secured, Fremantle took a calculated risk to rest half its team for the last round against St Kilda before upsetting Geelong in a famous qualifying final victory.
This season, with its final four spot likely to go down to the wire in a final game played at home against Port Adelaide, it might not have that opportunity.
Of course the extra bye has helped weary bodies but Fremantle won't have the same advantage it had last season.
The run home: who makes the eight?
The interchange cap has also added another element to the mix.
Last season Fremantle had 163 interchanges in round 20 against Greater Western Sydney as it rotated players to prepare for the finals. In Saturday night's classic against Geelong, it was limited to 120 and ended up making 107.
Fremantle's interchange average has dropped in the past month from 120.8 to 115.8 as it has lost players early in games, forcing others to work harder. The other three teams have maintained their rotations near 120 throughout.
Both the Cats and the Hawks also geared up their interchanges late last season (Geelong had 171 against Port Adelaide in round 20, 2013) so face a new reality this year.
Fremantle has also used 35 players – the same as Hawthorn and Geelong – and probably deserves more credit for its ability to hang tough than it has received so far this season.
It's getting its best side together now – with the possible exception of Luke McPharlin who might miss with a calf problem and Tendai Mzungu who has a hamstring injury – but if it can overcome the grind and weight of history to win the flag it will be a mighty performance.
Walters might become an X-factor. Could Colin Sylvia provide a Mitch Morton re-run?
Hawthorn has had injury concerns all season, with Josh Gibson playing 1331 minutes, Ben Stratton (1066), Cyril Rioli (1000), Sam Mitchell (984), Brad Sewell (615) Brian Lake (530).
That means three of its top four placegetters in the 2013 best and fairest have been missing for much of the 2115 minutes the Hawks have played this season.
Matt Suckling, Paul Puopolo, Jordan Lewis, Taylor Duryea and Brad Hill have assumed a greater workload and done well. Hawthorn sits on top of the ladder.
As it prepares for finals, it is also trying to ease the load on midfielder Shaun Burgoyne – dropping him back five minutes a game on average in the past four weeks – and substituting skipper Luke Hodge against Melbourne. Hodge played 79 minutes, a drop on the 100 minutes per game he averaged in the previous 10 games.
It also used 118 interchanges on Saturday against Melbourne with observers suggesting Hawthorn tightly controlled who came and went from the bench each quarter.
The Hawks have used 35 players (and two coaches) already this season, after using 34 players (and just the one coach) in 2013.
But it is timing its run as well as it could have hoped, with Rioli the unknown quantity with the highest profile.
Dynamic forward/midfielder Cyril Rioli could be a wildcard for Hawthorn this September. Picture: AFL Media
Geelong's injury problems came early with Nathan Vardy out for the season and Allen Christensen, Steve Motlop and Mathew Stokes missing significant chunks of football this season.
Those three are outside the team's top 16 for minutes played this season but have been consistent in the past fortnight.
The Cats are in good shape (having won five games by nine points or less to sit third) but have been trying to ease the workload of Mitch Duncan and Cam Guthrie in recent weeks, subbing off Guthrie against Melbourne and dropping Duncan's minutes played below 100 against North Melbourne in round 19 for the first time since round six.
Two byes have helped, with Joel Selwood, Tom Hawkins, Harry Taylor and Jimmy Bartel bearing much of the workload for the second year running.
As an aside, Bartel has become a one-man anti-equalisation machine, playing midfield until last season when he played back, and now playing as a virtual centre half-forward at just 187cm.
As he inches towards 31, Bartel has played 4997 minutes of football in the past two seasons, leading the club for minutes played in that time. The word freak comes to mind.
Bartel has been instrumental too in keeping the ball inside the forward half in the past month, with the Cats second in the AFL for time in forward half in the past four weeks. In that time, the Sydney Swans have dropped to 14th, giving their defenders less time to breath.
Despite sitting second, the Swans remain flag favourites and are in good shape to manage their list in the final three weeks. The club has the easiest draw of the top four clubs (playing St Kilda, Western Bulldogs and Richmond) and may have a top two position secured before it plays the Tigers in the final home and away game.
Never a high rotating team anyway, the Swans have had to adjust less to the interchange cap's introduction than their opponents - seven of their top 10 in the 2013 best and fairest are among the top 10 for minutes played in 2014.
It has also had nine players play every game compared to Geelong and Fremantle (six apiece) and Hawthorn five.
The Swans’ players thrive on hard work, so their priority will be gearing Dan Hannebery (played 1258 minutes this season) and Kurt Tippett (764 minutes) up for a big finals series. The club will also be conscious of ruckman Mike Pyke's workload. He has had to play over 100 minutes per game but if a chance arises to freshen him up, the Swans should seize it.
The Swans will be also looking to ease the load if it can on Luke Parker, Leroy Jetta and Kieren Jack to prime them for hard running finals.
Lance Franklin has averaged about eight fewer minutes per game with the Swans in 2014 than he did last season with the Hawks. What difference that makes in September remains to be seen.
Each team faces about 360 minutes of football before September.
How those minutes are spread will become vitally important as the same four teams line up in pole position for a spot in the Grand Final for the second consecutive season.
Those three are outside the team's top 16 for minutes played this season but have been consistent in the past fortnight.
The Cats are in good shape (having won five games by nine points or less to sit third) but have been trying to ease the workload of Mitch Duncan and Cam Guthrie in recent weeks, subbing off Guthrie against Melbourne and dropping Duncan's minutes played below 100 against North Melbourne in round 19 for the first time since round six.
Two byes have helped, with Joel Selwood, Tom Hawkins, Harry Taylor and Jimmy Bartel bearing much of the workload for the second year running.
As an aside, Bartel has become a one-man anti-equalisation machine, playing midfield until last season when he played back, and now playing as a virtual centre half-forward at just 187cm.
As he inches towards 31, Bartel has played 4997 minutes of football in the past two seasons, leading the club for minutes played in that time. The word freak comes to mind.
Bartel has been instrumental too in keeping the ball inside the forward half in the past month, with the Cats second in the AFL for time in forward half in the past four weeks. In that time, the Sydney Swans have dropped to 14th, giving their defenders less time to breath.
Despite sitting second, the Swans remain flag favourites and are in good shape to manage their list in the final three weeks. The club has the easiest draw of the top four clubs (playing St Kilda, Western Bulldogs and Richmond) and may have a top two position secured before it plays the Tigers in the final home and away game.
Never a high rotating team anyway, the Swans have had to adjust less to the interchange cap's introduction than their opponents - seven of their top 10 in the 2013 best and fairest are among the top 10 for minutes played in 2014.
It has also had nine players play every game compared to Geelong and Fremantle (six apiece) and Hawthorn five.
The Swans’ players thrive on hard work, so their priority will be gearing Dan Hannebery (played 1258 minutes this season) and Kurt Tippett (764 minutes) up for a big finals series. The club will also be conscious of ruckman Mike Pyke's workload. He has had to play over 100 minutes per game but if a chance arises to freshen him up, the Swans should seize it.
The Swans will be also looking to ease the load if it can on Luke Parker, Leroy Jetta and Kieren Jack to prime them for hard running finals.
Lance Franklin has averaged about eight fewer minutes per game with the Swans in 2014 than he did last season with the Hawks. What difference that makes in September remains to be seen.
Each team faces about 360 minutes of football before September.
How those minutes are spread will become vitally important as the same four teams line up in pole position for a spot in the Grand Final for the second consecutive season.
| Most minutes | Minutes played | Games played |
|---|---|---|
| Jarryd Roughead | 2075 | 18 |
| Luke Breust | 1999 | 19 |
| Matt Suckling | 1962 | 19 |
| X-factor | Minutes played | Games played |
| Sam Mitchell | 984 | 10 |
| Cyril Rioli | 1000 | 11 |
| Brian Lake | 530 | 5 |
| Three keys | Minutes played | Games played |
| Luke Hodge | 1634 | 17 |
| Jordan Lewis | 1910 | 18 |
| Josh Gibson | 1141 | 11 |
SYDNEY SWANS
| Most minutes | Minutes played | Games played |
|---|---|---|
| Ted Richards | 2260 | 19 |
| Heath Grundy | 2223 | 19 |
| Jarrad McVeigh | 2079 | 19 |
| X-factor | Minutes played | Games played |
| Gary Rohan | 732 | 10 |
| Kurt Tippett | 764 | 8 |
| Dan Hannebery | 1264 | 13 |
| Three keys | Minutes played | Games played |
| Lance Franklin | 1800 | 17 |
| Josh Kennedy | 1931 | 19 |
| Adam Goodes | 1294 | 14 |
GEELONG
| Most minutes | Minutes played | Games played |
|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Bartel | 2135 | 19 |
| Tom Hawkins | 2120 | 19 |
| Harry Taylor | 1993 | 18 |
| X-factor | Minutes played | Games played |
| Allen Christensen | 582 | 6 |
| Steven Motlop | 1292 | 11 |
| Josh Caddy | 825 | 13 |
| Three keys | Minutes played | Games played |
| Steve Johnson | 1792 | 17 |
| Hamish McIntosh | 1516 | 16 |
| Joel Selwood | 1955 | 19 |
FREMANTLE
| Most minutes | Minutes played | Games played |
|---|---|---|
| Cameron Sutcliffe | 2140 | 19 |
| Lee Spurr | 2131 | 19 |
| Paul Duffield | 2127 | 19 |
| X-factor | Minutes played | Games played |
| Michael Walters | 263 | 3 |
| Hayden Crozier | 541 | 6 |
| Colin Sylvia | 504 | 6 |
| Three keys | Minutes played | Games played |
| Nathan Fyfe | 1704 | 17 |
| David Mundy | 1774 | 19 |
| Michael Barlow | 1421 | 15 |
