SUMMARY
The Swans battled a significant injury list all season to keep themselves in the top four and earn a double shot in September. Right now, that is an absolute blessing for the premiers. Well beaten in an uncharacteristically poor second half against Hawthorn last week, the Swans' coaching staff is weighing up how much to tinker with its line-up for a must-win game. But it would be foolish to write off the Swans, who have shown impressive resilience all year and will be well motivated to show last week was an anomaly.
They come up against a Carlton side that suddenly has the world at its feet. Gifted a place in the top eight due to Essendon's sanctions, the Blues took full advantage, stunning old foe Richmond to stay alive for another week. Confident, relatively healthy and with Chris Judd in top form, the Blues are playing with a nothing-to-lose attitude and loom as a dangerous opponent at ANZ Stadium.
WHERE AND WHEN: ANZ Stadium, Saturday, September 14, 7.45pm (AEST)
TV AND RADIO: Click here for broadcast guide and odds
LAST FIVE MEETINGS
R14, 2013, Swans 8.17 (65) d Carlton 5.13 (43) at the SCGR19, 2012, Swans 14.9 (93) d Carlton 10.11 (71) at Etihad Stadium
R13, 2011, Carlton 15.10 (100) d Swans 10.6 (66) at Etihad Stadium
R6, 2011, Carlton 12.15 (87) d Swans 10.11 (71) at the SCG
1EF, 2010, Swans 14.15 (99) d Carlton 13.16 (94) at ANZ Stadium
2013 MEETINGS
Round 14 at the SCG: Sydney Swans 8.17 (65) d Carlton 5.13 (43)
In a match played in atrocious conditions, the Swans prevailed by 22 points in a bruising Friday night encounter at the SCG. In some of the heaviest rain seen at the ground in recent memory, Ryan O'Keefe got the better of his battle with Judd, with Craig Bird, Luke Parker and Tom Mitchell all influential in the victory as the Swans bounced back from a loss to Port Adelaide the previous week. Lachie Henderson was a dominant backline presence for the Blues, while Bryce Gibbs and Matthew Kreuzer also contributed, but they didn't get enough help on the night.
KEY MATCH-UPS
Ryan O'Keefe v Chris Judd
O'Keefe has largely been the Swans' No.1 tagging option this season and has enjoyed some significant scalps, including that of Judd back in round 14. Such a hard tackler and physical presence, O'Keefe can also hurt opposition sides significantly on the offensive end. But he may well need some help on Saturday night if Judd continues showing the type of form he did against Richmond on Sunday. In the second half, Judd was the catalyst for the Blues' comeback triumph. He has also enjoyed some huge nights in big games against the Swans and will be hopeful of adding to that playlist.
Kurt Tippett v Michael Jamison
If their most recent duel is any gauge, Jamison will have his hands full regardless of conditions. Back in round 14, Tippett proved too big, strong and even nimble for the smaller Jamison. In just his second game for the Swans, the ex-Crow had 17 disposals (13 contested) and kicked two of his team's first five goals. Meanwhile, Jamison came under fire from former Swans coach Paul Roos for allowing Tippett to crash through packs unimpeded. However, Tippett has managed just three goals in his past two games – albeit from limited opportunities in comprehensive losses to Geelong and Hawthorn – while Jamison is fresh from blanketing Jack Riewoldt for a third time this season.
Ted Richards v Jarrad Waite
Richards and his back-line partner Heath Grundy are accustomed to taking on the competition's biggest forwards, so this week represents a different challenge for the Swans duo. Richards will almost certainly spend some time on Waite, pitting two 30-year-olds together born less than a month apart. But Waite likes to drift up the ground, meaning Dane Rampe may be required to follow him. The likes of Lachie Henderson, Robbie Warnock and – last week – four-goal star Nick Duigan also like to move into the forward line. It's a versatility that will make the Blues' attack a dangerous proposition at ANZ Stadium.
WILDCARDS
Sydney Swans - Lewis Jetta
Given his first taste of senior football since round 10, Jetta showed plenty of rust when used as a sub against the Hawks last Friday. But with another week of training under his belt, he should be far better for the run if he lines up against the Blues.There is also the matter of Jetta's penchant for ANZ Stadium, the site of his famous 100-metre running goal in last year's preliminary final victory over Collingwood. Perhaps those pleasant memories can spur the jet-propelled 24-year-old to recapture top form. At his best, Jetta is an impossible match-up for opposition sides.
Carlton - Nick Duigan
At times this season the Blues have been accused of not being hard enough; and at their worst, giving up without a whimper. However, they have rediscovered some raw aggression and selfless courage that typifies teams that progress deep into September. The rejuvenated Duigan has added a harder edge and greater urgency, while the likes of Mitch Robinson, Zach Tuohy, Dennis Armfield and Tom Bell are fierce at the ball and the man. They need to at least match the Swans in this area to have a chance of victory.
PLAN B
Sydney Swans: The Swans generally stick to their structures and don't mix things up too often, outside of their talls. Mike Pyke, Mumford and Jesse White rotate through the forward line alongside Tippett, but it doesn't alter their overall approach. Midfielders O'Keefe, Josh Kennedy or Luke Parker can shift forward to kick goals, while Jarrad McVeigh's versatility means he can be used anywhere on the ground. Andrejs Everitt can also be used at either end, while they can also alter some of their match-ups, particularly in midfield. O'Keefe, McVeigh, Parker and Kieren Jack can all play lock-down roles if required.
Carlton: If things are going awry, as they have for the Blues until half-time in both of their past two outings, they have the flexibility to make sweeping changes without unsettling their line-up. Henderson, Waite, Andrew Walker and Duigan have each had success playing at either end, while Gibbs can be a match-winner in any sector. Such versatility and unpredictability could prove crucial against the highly structured Swans. The Blues also boast the fitness, self-belief and ability to slash significant deficits in quick time, although they wouldn't want to be slow starters against the reigning premier.
THE SIX POINTS
1. The teams have met three times at ANZ Stadium, with the Swans winning all three. The last was an elimination final at the ground in 2010 the home side won by five points. Overall Carlton has lost 11 of its past 12 games in Sydney dating back to 1994.
2. The Blues have dominated the head-to-head battle historically, however, boasting a 127-86 record. There have also been six draws, although the last of those came in 1967.
3. In finals, the record is dead even at five wins apiece. The Blues' last win over the Swans in a final came in 1986 at the MCG. There have been two previous semi-finals, both won by the Swans in 1910 and1918.
4. As he attempts to prove his fitness for the game, Adam Goodes remains the Swans' highest-ranked forward in the Official AFL Player Ratings at No.43 overall, with Tippett second at No.176. For the Blues, Jeff Garlett (No.82) leads the way, ahead of Eddie Betts (103).
5. The Swans will be contesting their 28th semi-final, with their current record 12-15. They have lost their past three dating back to the thrilling 2005 win over Geelong. For Carlton, this is their 64th semi-final. The Blues boast a 29-33 record with one draw. Their last semi-final win came against the Brisbane Lions in 2000.
6. Last week's win over the Tigers was Carlton coach Mick Malthouse's 27th finals triumph, equaling Jock McHale's all-time record. He also has a strong career record at ANZ Stadium, winning seven of his nine trips to the Olympic venue
