Sydney Swans vs. Geelong
The Key Indicator
Clearances and the influence of Shane Mumford
The Cats have fallen behind in every one of their first three wins, yet they have still been able to come back and win. They have made their comeback push in the third quarter of each match, outscoring their opponent 17 goals to 8 in third quarters. They can't count on this against the Swans, who have won every one of their third quarters so far themselves and have outscored their opponents 19 goals to 8 in third terms.
This means that the Cats must work hard to get first possession of the ball and compete well in the clearances in order to not fall behind early. Shane Mumford will make this hard for them. So far in 2013 he is averaging not only 22 hitouts, but also assisting his midfielders with 3 clearances and 10 contested possessions per game.
Leigh says: ‘The fact that Geelong has fallen behind and managed to win in its three games this season is commendable, but it’s a bad habit. You’re not going to keep giving away starts and then coming over the top.
The Cats are 18th in the league in clearance differential – in other words they’ve been the worst stoppage team in the competition comparative to their opposition. It’s concerning that they’re struggling so much in this area, and part of that is that they’re going with a makeshift ruck combination. Mumford has the ability to be a good clearance player for Sydney even as a ruckman. He really gets after the ball at ground level and the Cats will struggle if they can’t limit his influence.’
The Key Player
Steve Johnson
Johnson played his first game for the season in last week’s win over Carlton. Whilst he was able collect 26disposals, he wasn’t at his most damaging – only distributing the ball at 54% efficiency and kicking two behinds. If he improves his effectiveness on Friday night and can contribute on the scoreboard (Johnson averages 1.9 goals per game over his career) he will have a sizeable impact on the outcome of the game.
Leigh says: ‘Steve Johnson is not as consistent as a Joel Selwood type, but on his day he’s one of those players who has enormous influence on the game. He can get the ball around the middle of the ground and help Geelong in its clearance area but he can also be a goal kicker too. Tobeat the Swans in Sydney the Cats are probably going to need one of his very good games.’
The Last Word
Swans to win
Leigh says: ‘I’ll stick with the Swans. I think the Mumford and Kennedy combination is going to be really influential and too much for Geelong in the midfield.’
Richmond vs. Collingwood
The Key Matchup
Richmond tall forwards vs Collingwood backline missing Nick Maxwell
The loss of Maxwell is very important for Collingwood. In the last three seasons its record without him is 6 wins and 6 losses (50% winning record). The Pies record with him in the last three seasons is 35 wins and 6 losses (85% winning record).
The Tigers tall forward trio of Jack Riewoldt, Tyrone Vickery and Luke McGuane have kicked 23 goals so far this season (an average of 7.6 goals per game between them) so the Pies will have their work cut out for them again.
Leigh says: ‘At the moment Ivan Maric and Tyrone Vickery are looking like a really good ruck/forward combination. Vickery in particular has been able to be dangerous in the forward line and with McGuane and Riewoldt also doing their bit, the Richmond forward line will be hard to stop.
For Collingwood I’m always a great fan of Nick Maxwell’s organization and I think he’s much more important to the Magpies than people give him credit for. Ben Reid and Nathan Brown are generally pretty good against whoever they’re playing on, but young Jack Frost just doesn’t have a whole lot of experience. Richmond is going to be able to potentially work them a little bit to try to be able to make sure that Frost’s opponent is the one that they’re going to.’
The Key Player
Brett Deledio
Deledio has enjoyed a brilliant start to the season, playing the majority of his football in the center and on the wings. He's a very versatile player and can be extremely damaging running with the ball, kicking inside fifty and also kicking goals himself. In 2013 he's averaging 24 disposals at 79% efficiency, 8 marks, 7 inside 50's and 2 goals. Deledio also leads the league in bounces per game, with 15 so far this season.
Leigh says: ‘Deledio’s one of those players who can do a lot of damage with not too many stats. Midfielders always get a lot of the footy, but he’s also averaging two goals per game. If he gets a bit of space around the middle of the ground he can break the fifty-meter line and kick long goals. The Tigers have a lot of good inside ball winners but Deledio is the one who can really break the opposition open.’
The Last Word
Richmond to win
Leigh says: ‘I’m going to stick with the Tigers. I think Jolly, Maxwell and Beams are always big outs for Collingwood so they’re still a bit below what they could potentially be. Whereas Richmond just seem to have them all out there.’
Round four tips
*Winner in capitals
SYDNEY SWANS vs Geelong
HAWTHORN vs Fremantle
RICHMOND vs Collingwood
ST KILDA vs Essendon
WEST COAST vs Carlton
GOLD COAST vs Port Adelaide
MELBOURNE vs Greater Western Sydney
ADELAIDE vs Western Bulldogs
NORTH MELBOURNE vs Brisbane Lions
