COLLINGWOOD V GEELONG

The key match-up
Travis Cloke vs Harry Taylor/Tom Lonergan
Most people would agree Cloke is a very important player for Collingwood, and the stats show that his numbers are a good indicator of whether Collingwood is going to win. In the Pies' four wins this season Cloke has averaged 17 disposals, 9.8 marks and 3.8 goals. In their three losses he's averaged 13.3 disposals, 7.6 marks and 2.3 goals. Last year Harry Taylor played on Cloke in round eight (Cloke had 15 disposals, six marks and two goals) while Tom Lonergan played on him in round 16 (Cloke had nine disposals, one mark and one goal in 90 per cent game time).

Leigh says:
"One of the things that seems to have altered from the Collingwood side of a couple of years ago is that they seem to have this really big dependence on Cloke. While Jamie Elliott has also been quite good, they almost seem like they need Cloke to have a really good game if they're going to win. So then you have to ask who's going to play on him, and I think that Harry Taylor and Tom Lonergan match up very well against him. The Cats tend to use Lonergan on the best big forward most of the time, so that Taylor has a bit more freedom to back his judgment in the air."

The key player
Mathew Stokes
In previous years Stokes has spent the majority of his time as a small forward (previous high average disposals per game was 20 in 2011), but this year he's averaging 26 disposals, 3.9 insides 50's and 1.1 goals. Stokes has been in the middle of the ground a lot more this year. With some of the Cats usual ball winners getting older, he's picked up the slack in a big way. Last week he had 24 disposals, 11 marks and three goals.

Leigh says: "Geelong's midfield core has really changed in the past year or two, Joel Selwood is almost the only one still permanently playing in there. So Stokes has gone in there and done a lot better than most people would have thought he could. He's really snuck up on us a little bit as a good quality midfielder. It's almost like getting promoted, he's been a small forward who's been promoted into the midfield, which means that young talent like Motlop and Christensen can take over his role in the forward line."

The last word
Geelong to win

Leigh says: "I'm going for Geelong mainly because I think it has a good match-up for Cloke and Collingwood seem very dependent on him at the moment."
 
Round four tips
*Winner in capitals

WEST COAST vs North Melbourne
ESSENDON vs Brisbane Lions
HAWTHORN vs Greater Western Sydney
GOLD COAST vs Western Bulldogs
Collingwood vs GEELONG
SYDNEY SWANS vs Fremantle
CARLTON vs Port Adelaide
RICHMOND vs Melbourne
Adelaide vs ST KILDA