WHAT hope do discarded first-round draft picks have of success if given a chance at a second club?

They often carry currency into trade week - supporters seem to value them, at least - but they rarely improve during their second chance. 

That's the reality when you do the numbers. 

Between the 2000 and 2010 AFL drafts, there have been 176 players selected using draft picks numbers 1 to 16. 

A little under a third (52 players) ended up at a second club, where often a contract was offered regardless of their performance at their first club. 

If you break those 52 into sub-categories, you get a better perspective on what type of player is likely to succeed second time around. 

Six stars left of their own devices – Luke Ball, Chris Judd, Shaun Burgoyne, Scott Thompson, Brendon Goddard and Mitch Clark. 

Unsurprisingly, all have shown they are good players at their second club. 

Free agents Buddy Franklin and Dale Thomas would fit into that category if they find new homes in 2014. 

If you then remove from consideration the other eight players at new clubs this season – Ben Jacobs, Josh Caddy, Hamish McIntosh, Angus Monfries, Cale Morton, Jordan Gysberts, Troy Chaplin and Jordan Russell – because it is too early to assess their performance, you are left with a batch of 38. 

Of that 38, we can exclude Carlton's Lachlan Henderson and the Eagles' Josh Kennedy who were reluctantly let go by their original clubs to make trades for significant players - Brendan Fevola, Chris Judd - happen.

Both have proved successful at their new club. 

In another sub-group sits 13 players I call opportunity seekers: Tom Scully, Phil Davis, Brock McLean, Jared Brennan, Rhys Palmer, David Hale, Tom Lynch, Richard Tambling, Brad Ebert, Farren Ray and former players Jordan McMahon, Daniel Harris and Daniel Motlop.

They all wanted a new opportunity elsewhere and moved after their original club negotiated a good draft pick as compensation.  

None of the 13 above is a world-beater but most could claim reasonable football careers. 

Most would put Jack Watts and Colin Sylvia in that category if they sought options outside Melbourne although Watts hangs between the opportunity seekers and a third category: the discards. 

That category is comprised of the remaining 23 players from the 52 first-round picks (from 1-16) selected between 2000-2010. They were unwanted (or in Hale's case surplus to needs) at their original club but given a lifeline by another club.

Four players in that category need special consideration. 

Graham Polak was unlucky. He looked about to realise expectations before he was struck by a tram. Sam Power was a moderate success at two clubs and certainly a solid football citizen. Injuries ruined Xavier Clarke and Marcus Drum. 

Of the remaining 19, there are 16 players who did not make an impact at two clubs: 

- James Sellar (Adelaide 21 games, Melbourne 22), 

- Patrick Veszpremi (Sydney Swans 11, Western Bulldogs 12)

- Andrejs Everitt (Western Bulldogs 36, Sydney Swans 28)

- Jarrad Oakley-Nicholls (Richmond 13, West Coast Eagles 0)

- Lewis Johnston (Sydney 2, Adelaide 1)

- John Meesen (Adelaide 2, Melbourne 4)

- Adam Pattison (Richmond 61, St Kilda 5)

- Fergus Watts (Adelaide 5, St Kilda 1)

- Luke Brennan (Hawthorn 19, Sydney Swans 9)

- Barry Brooks (Port Adelaide 0, St Kilda 10)

- Richard Cole (Collingwood 56, Essendon 7)

- Andrew McDougall (West Coast Eagles 38, Western Bulldogs 5)

- Laurence Angwin (Adelaide 0, Carlton 4)

- Adam Thomson (Port Adelaide 28, Richmond 4)

- Danny Meyer (Richmond 17, Port Adelaide 9)

- Dylan Smith (North Melbourne 11, Fremantle 10). 

While Veszpremi, Sellar, Johnston and Everitt still have time, for a variety of reasons the other 12 did not succeed at either their original or second club. 

All that subtraction leaves us with just three players (excluding this year's crew) who have taken their game to another level after being discarded by their original club: Kepler Bradley (Essendon 49, Fremantle 68), Jay Schulz (Richmond 71, Port Adelaide 57) and Stephen Gilham (Port Adelaide 1, Hawthorn 98, GWS 8). 

Gilham, of course, is at his third club having joined Greater Western Sydney in 2013. 

So, what does this mean for clubs considering a punt on a talented discard from another side? The old motto 'buyer beware' certainly applies when it comes to discards, regardless of where they were selected in the draft. Clubs must also be very choosy when it comes to opportunity seekers. 

They have become like a new car as soon as it leaves the car yard. 

Even presuming Melbourne wanted to hold on to Watts, he remains a risk. 

One list manager suggested to AFL.com.au last week he would be a two-year project from now at best if he joined another club. 

Such value assessments are being made right now. 

It's worth remembering that regardless of where a player is picked, being discarded decreases his likelihood of success second time around. 

2013 possibles: Buddy Franklin, Dale Thomas

2012 examples: Brendon Goddard 

2013 possibles: Colin Sylvia, Jack Watts, Mitch Brown (West Coast)

2012 examples: Troy Chaplin, Josh Caddy, Angus Monfries 

2013 possibles: Jarrad Grant, Mitch Brown (Geelong)

2012 examples: Cale Morton, Jordan Gysberts, Jordan Russell