SUMMARY
Hawthorn and the Sydney Swans played out a fierce encounter last Friday night at ANZ Stadium, and they'll do it all again this weekend at the MCG, with a place in the preliminary final on the line. Both teams will look different, with the Swans to be bolstered by the returns of Kurt Tippett, Daniel Hannebery, Nick Smith and possibly even Lewis Jetta, and the Hawks losing Lance Franklin to suspension, but most likely regaining Cyril Rioli, Max Bailey and Brent Guerra. The minor premiers have won both clashes between the teams this year and deserve to be regarded as favourites, but everyone knows how dangerous the Swans can be on their day – we need only look back to last year's Grand Final to remember that.
WHERE AND WHEN: MCG, Friday, September 6, 7.50pm (AEST)
TV AND RADIO: Click here for broadcast guide and odds
LAST FIVE MEETINGS
R23, 2013, Hawthorn 17.10 (112) d Sydney Swans 16.4 (100) at ANZ Stadium
R7, 2013, Hawthorn 18.11 (119) d Sydney Swans 12.10 (82) at the MCG
GF, 2012, Sydney Swans 14.7 (91) d Hawthorn 11.15 (81) at the MCG
R22, 2012, Hawthorn 15.12 (102) d Sydney Swans 14.11 (95) at the SCG
R5, 2012, Sydney Swans 16.10 (106) d Hawthorn 10.9 (69) at Aurora Stadium
2013 MEETINGS
Round 7 at the MCG: Hawthorn 18.11 (119) d Sydney Swans 12.10 (82)
Hawthorn turned in one of its best performances of the season, storming out of the blocks with the first five goals and eventually winning by 37 points. Jarryd Roughead was superb for the Hawks, booting four goals and gathering 27 disposals, including four centre clearances, as he alternated between the forward line and centre square. Franklin, David Hale and Jack Gunston all booted three goals, and skipper Luke Hodge had 32 touches. Josh Kennedy was the Swans' best contributor, with 30 disposals, 13 clearances and two goals.
Round 23 at ANZ Stadium: Hawthorn 17.10 (112) d Swans 16.4 (100). Both teams pulled some tricks just prior to the opening bounce, with Bailey and Tippett late withdrawals for the Hawks and Swans respectively. The home side produced some of its best football for more than a month, leading at every change, before Roughead and Brad Sewell led the Hawks to victory in the final quarter. It was an intense, high-quality encounter, with Shane Mumford and Kennedy critical for the Swans.
KEY MATCH-UPS
Jarryd Roughead v Heath Grundy: Two players that are evenly matched physically, they have already enjoyed some absorbing battles. The Swans defender kept Roughead goalless in last year's Grand Final, but the Coleman Medal-winning Hawk kicked four goals in both games in 2013. With Franklin suspended this week, Roughead will be even more important, and Grundy may get some help trying to quell the Hawthorn spearhead.
Sam Mitchell v Ryan O'Keefe: Another match-up that solidified itself in last year's Grand Final, when O'Keefe's outstanding performance resulted in a Norm Smith Medal. Mitchell was hugely influential in a dominant midfield performance in round seven this year, with the Swan then finishing on top in the return bout last week. Two of the hardest, cleanest players in the competition, the winner of this duel will have a direct say in the outcome.
Brian Lake v Kurt Tippett: Tippett's late withdrawal last Friday night meant we were denied an early look at this tantalising match-up, but it's almost certain to happen this week. The big Swan's average of 3.3 goals per game ranks No.1 in the AFL this season, while Lake has taken 64 intercept marks – equal No.1 with Essendon's Cale Hooker. Both players were recruited to fill specific needs, and the next four weeks will be telling.
WILDCARDS
Hawthorn: Jack Gunston
The young forward becomes more of a focal point when Franklin is not around, booting 26 goals in nine Franklin-less games in 2012-13. Recently described by Carlton president Stephen Kernahan as "the best kick for goal I've ever seen," the 21-year-old rarely misses from set shots. If the Hawks can get the ball in his hands within range, they can be confident that he'll do the rest.
Sydney Swans: Gary Rohan
In his third game back from his long injury layoff, Rohan showed just how dangerous he can be against the Hawks last week. The 22-year-old doesn't need to rack up big possession numbers to have an impact. Rather it is typically in bursts when he has his greatest influence, evidenced by his two goals in a three-minute span at ANZ Stadium. He also worries defenders with his chase and tackle, pinning Josh Gibson in the Hawks' back half with one of his four tackles for the night. Improving every week, he will be causing Alastair Clarkson headaches heading into Friday night.
PLAN B
Hawthorn
Clarkson loves to mix things up, particularly through midfield and half-back, where Luke Hodge, Shaun Burgoyne, Sam Mitchell and even Brad Sewell may all rotate. Forwards Roughead and Rioli can also be thrown into the centre square if the Hawks are in need of a boost, along with Paul Puopolo. Expect to see the Coleman medallist as the main forward target, with Gunston and Hale both pushed deep at stages as well. Jordan Lewis and Brendan Whitecross are both capable of playing defensive forward roles if one of the Swans' rebounding playmakers gets off the chain.
Sydney Swans
The Swans generally stick to their structures and don't mix things up too often, outside of their talls. Mike Pyke, Mumford and Jesse White rotate through the forward line alongside Tippett, but it doesn't alter their overall approach. They do have some midfielders capable of going forward, taking a mark and kicking a goal if needed, such as Josh Kennedy or Luke Parker, while Jarrad McVeigh's versatility means he can be used anywhere on the ground. But the premiers don't possess a swingman in the Harry Taylor or Jake Carlisle mould.
THE SIX POINTS
1. This will be the sixth final between the two teams, with Hawthorn holding a 3-2 edge. They have faced off in two previous qualifying finals, at Waverley Park in 1987 and the SCG in 1996, with the home side winning on both occasions.
2. Overall, the Hawks have an excellent finals record, winning 44 of their 72 post-season matches at a success rate of 61.1 per cent. The Swans, who have won five flags to Hawthorn's 10, have a 34-40 finals clip.
3. At the end of the home-and-away season in the first year of the Official AFL Player Ratings, these modern day powerhouses had two players each ranked in the overall top 10. Kieren Jack led the way in sixth place, with Kennedy eighth. For the Hawks, Franklin (9th) and Rioli (10th) top the bill.
4. The Swans have a poor record at the MCG, losing eight of their past 12 games at the home of football. They have also won just 19 of 49 finals at the ground. But they have split their two MCG finals against the Hawks, losing a semi-final in 2011 before winning last year's Grand Final.
5. As minor premier, Hawthorn has recent history in its favour. The team that tops the ladder at the end of the home-and-away season has won its first final in each of the last six seasons. The last team to lose in week one was West Coast, against the Swans in 2006, but the Eagles still ended that year celebrating a premiership victory.
6. The Swans are preparing for their fourth straight finals series and 10th from their past 11 seasons. That is the best streak in South Melbourne/Sydney Swans history.
