Fremantle vs. Essendon
The Key Indicator
Clearances and Fremantle’s forward pressure
Fremantle has had 22 behinds kicked against it so far in 2013. When the opposition has kicked the ball in after the behind it has never made it all the way into its own forward 50, with Fremantle either forcing a turnover, a ball-up or a boundary throw in. Fremantle is the only team in the AFL who is yet to allow the opposition to go from a kick-in directly into its 50.
Leigh says: ‘What this means is that to beat Fremantle you can’t allow the ball to get stuck in their forward line. You have to be good in the center bounces and you have to kick accurately’
The Key Matchup
Jobe Watson vs Ryan Crowley
Watson is one of the elite midfielders in the competition, and the Brownlow medalist has enjoyed a brilliant start to the season. Through two games he is averaging 36 disposals, 8 clearances, 6.5 inside 50’s and 2 goals per game.
So far in 2012 Crowley has done tagging jobs on two important opposition midfielders – he kept Luke Shuey to 12 disposals in round one and Ryan Griffen to 17 disposals in round two. The worry with negating players like Crowley can be that they give away crucial free kicks, but Crowley has also been great in this area; he has only given away one free kick in the first two rounds.
Leigh says: ‘The starting point of each game is always the stoppages, but it’s even more important against Fremantle, because if they win it and get the ball into their forward line you can’t get it out. I know that Heppell and Howlett are going well, but the best clearance player for Essendon is clearly Watson, so whether Ryan Crowley is able to prevent his midfield influence is critical’
The Last Word
Fremantle to win
Leigh says: ‘I’d probably tip Essendon if it was in Melbourne. Both teams are playing well, but I’ll stick with the home side’
Collingwood vs. Hawthorn
The Key Player
Ben Hudson
With Darren Jolly sidelined by injury early in last week’s game, Quinten Lynch was forced to carry the load in the ruck. Although he battled manfully and did well around the ground, he was beaten convincingly at ruck contests. The Pies have brought experienced ruckman Hudson into the side to shore up the position. He will be critical in curbing the influence of Hawthorn ruckman Max Bailey, who has started the season in fine form, averaging 23 hitouts and 4 clearances through his first two games.
Leigh says: ‘We saw what happened last week when Lynch went into the ruck. He got the ball around the ground, but in the centre bounces he’s just not a proper ruckman. Hudson was recruited for this very reason. He’ll never be played when Jolly plays, because you can’t play the two of them, but when Jolly is out injured it’s great for the Pies to have a plug-in ruckman like Hudson who they know will be competitive’
The Key Indicator
Hawthorn small forwards
Collingwood has been very good at containing opposition key forwards so far this season. In particular the Magpies have been able to limit the marks inside their forward 50, allowingjust 8.5 per game (equal 5th best in the league).
Whilst Hawthorn rely heavily on tall forwards like Lance Franklin and David Hale, it does have some small forwards who can also provide an avenue to goal. These players must have an impact for the Hawks. If they can put on forward pressure and make a mark on the scoreboard as they did last week, then Hawthorn will be in a very good position to win the game.
Leigh says: ‘The Collingwood key defenders have been very good so far this season, but as we saw last week from Carlton, small forwards can trouble them. Chris Yarran and Jeff Gartlett were great for Carlton in that game, and players like Rioli, Puopolo and Breust become critical for Hawthorn’s scoring in this contest’
The Last Word
Hawthorn to win
Leigh says: ‘I think the loss of Maxwell is incredibly important for Collingwood and I think Hawthorn’s forward power will be too much for the Pies’
Round three tips
*Winner in capitals
FREMANTLE vs. Essendon
NORTH MELBOURNE vs. Sydney Swans
Melbourne vs. WEST COAST
Greater Western Sydney vs ST KILDA
GEELONG vs. Carlton
Gold Coast vs. BRISBANE LIONS
RICHMOND vs. Western Bulldogs
Collingwood vs. HAWTHORN
Port Adelaide vs. ADELAIDE
