"He won't come up. He's sore. It was going to be close but he's unlikely to get there," Buckley said on Thursday.
"He was unable to train today and is still mitigating the pain."
Jolly lasted only a quarter of last Sunday's blockbuster game against Carlton. The dual premiership ruckman suffered rib cartilage damage and spent a brief period in hospital after the match.
Veteran Ben Hudson or Jarrod Witts are in line to take his place.
Buckley said Hudson had brought "energy and enthusiasm" to the Magpies, while Witts was coming off his best VFL performance to date.
Better news for the Magpies is that dynamic midfielder Dale Thomas will return for his first game of the season.
An ankle injury wiped out much of the pre-season for Thomas but after two strong VFL performances over the last fortnight, the Pies are finally ready to bring him back.
Thomas trained strongly on Thursday as the Pies stepped out for the first time on their new $11.3 million training ground, located immediately adjacent to the Westpac Centre and situated where the Olympic Park athletics track used to be located.
"He's ready to go. We'll use him as we see fit," Buckley said, dismissing suggestions that Thomas would be eased back into senior football as the sub.
Midfielder Luke Ball also appeared to train well, however Buckley said he was yet to receive the all clear to resume in the VFL following a hamstring strain.
"We still feel 'Bally' needs a couple of weeks of match intensity into him before we're happy to unleash him into a game."
Collingwood faces a huge task on Sunday. They went 0-3 against the Hawks last season and conceded more than 130 points each time. But there is encouragement that the Pies also failed to beat either North Melbourne or Carlton last year and have already knocked them off this season.
"They're a great side," Buckley said. "Hawthorn's ability, talent and attitude that they bring every time will test us."
With Chris Tarrant now retired, Buckley needs to find a new opponent for Hawk spearhead Lance Franklin, but he said both Ben Reid and Nathan Brown were up to the task. His backline will be further hampered by the loss of skipper Nick Maxwell, out for up to eight weeks with a broken wrist.
"We'll miss his drive and leadership. He does a lot of on-field coaching and instruction but that's just an opportunity for another player to step up into his role," Buckley said.
A large crowd attended the training session on the site of the old Olympic Park athletics track, which followed an official opening and ceremonial kicking of the first goal, which featured former Collingwood greats Peter McKenna and Craig Kelly.
Collingwood president Eddie McGuire said the new $11.3 million oval would be shared with the public and opened up what was once a private area to the people of Melbourne.
"There have been a few knockers along the way and it has been a long journey but to come here today and see this magnificent expanse, it makes us very proud," he said.
The Pies used to train at Gosch's Paddock, several hundred metres further up Swan Street. Buckley said the new ground was 16 per cent larger than the old ground and with dimensions the same as the MCG.
